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Economic analysis

17 Jul 2018

BBVA Research maintains its GDP growth forecasts for Spain at 2.9 percent for 2018 and 2.5 percent for 2019. The increasing likelihood that some risks might finally materialize could drive the Spanish economy to slower growth scenarios, according to the latest Spain Economic Outlook report published by BBVA’s studies unit. The report was presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of BBVA Group and Head of BBVA Research, Rafael Doménech, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis of BBVA Research and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist Spain and Portugal. Under this scenario, the country is expected to generate about 880,000 jobs over the two-year period, causing the country’s unemployment rate to drop below 14%.

26 Jun 2018

“I love food and I am mad about sports.” Hearing him talk about his hobbies, Jaime Sáenz de Tejada (Madrid, 1968) comes across as someone who enjoys life. As a kid he was into basketball and track and field. Later, he got interested in paddle tennis and golf. About a year and a half ago he fractured his thigh bone forcing him to focus a bit more on swimming and cycling. He defines himself as a lover of Peruvian cuisine, because it offers “the best fusion of sensitivities from many places, with ingredients of unparalleled quality.” He’s even given cooking chifa (a fusion of Peruvian ingredients and traditions with Cantonese elements) a go, but “being surrounded by so much talent, I would never dare to compete in culinary skills.” Married and with five children – “one of them is on his way to becoming a chef, just like his mom,”- he’s been a part of BBVA for more than 25 years. In 2014 he became the Group’s Chief Financial Officer. He devotes most of his scant free time to “living his children’s education intensely and sharing activities with them.” He’s been lucky to live in New York – at two different periods – , London, Uruguay and Peru.

25 Jun 2018

14 Jun 2018

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Jorge Sicilia, BBVA Research Chief Economist, analyzed the announcement made by the BCE: “The European Central Bank (ECB) today (Thursday) sent a very clear message that finds the right balance between being aggressive and prudent.”

07 Jun 2018

The new accounting regulation IFRS 9 aims to buttress financial stability against future crises.  It obliges financial institutions to more faithfully reflect credit risk and calculate provisions for insolvencies following an expected loss model (versus the previous “incurred loss” model). For a majority of financial institutions, this has resulted in an increase in provisions and the subsequent impact on capital.

29 May 2018

28 May 2018

04 Apr 2018

22 Mar 2018

As we expected, the FOMC increased the Fed funds rate to 1.5%-1.75%, confirming that newly appointed Chairman is committed to maintaining continuity with his predecessor. The language in the statement underpinned the committee’s shift from a defensive to potentially offensive mindset, with strong labor market signals, increased business investment and firmer actual inflation readings.

20 Feb 2018

Timothy Bresnahan, Ariel Pakes and Robert Porter study the impact of businesses in the market. To measure this ability that firms have to control prices in a given industry, the three Frontiers of Knowledge laureates in Economics have developed methods that have had a significant and lasting impact on empirical research in the industrial organization field, as well as in other applied fields like health or environmental economics.

02 Feb 2018

Market analysts reported positively on BBVA’s 2017 results. The majority pointed to the solid underlying trends, the strength of recurring revenues and cost containment as the key drivers of the bank’s solid performance.

31 Jan 2018

29 Jan 2018

26 Jan 2018

As had been expected, following its monthly meeting the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged. At the same time, ECB President Mario Draghi introduced the exchange rate as an element of uncertainty, stressing that he will monitor the fluctuations in the euro and their possible consequences. Likewise, he reiterated the possibility of broadening the bond purchase program, continuing his accommodative policy, which will be accompanied by interest rates at minimum levels for a long period of time.

25 Jan 2018

16 Jan 2018

BBVA Research maintains its forecasts for Spain’s GDP growth in 2017 and 2018 at 3.1% and 2.5%, respectively. In addition, it expects that the economic recovery will continue in 2019  (with a 2.3% increase in GDP) and that the improvement in the economy will translate into wage growth. BBVA Research’s latest Spain Economic Outlook was presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of the BBVA Group and Director of BBVA Research; Rafael Doménech, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at BBVA Research; and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist for Spain and Portugal.  If these forecasts prove to be correct, Spain´s unemployment rate could drop to 13.4% by end of 2019, which would imply the creation of 860,000 jobs over the next two years.

12 Jan 2018

In late 2017, the European Commission established a roadmap for deepening the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The plan represented yet another step towards the economic integration of the EU, during a political year marked by the elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany and the Brexit negotiations with the United Kingdom. One of the most far-reaching proposals is transformation of the current European Stability Mechanism (ESM) into a European Monetary Fund (EMF). The year 2018 opens with the challenge of implementing this proposal.

20 Dec 2017

15 Dec 2017

13 Dec 2017

The outlook for Argentina’s economy in 2018 remains optimistic, with GDP expected to expand by nearly 3% for the second consecutive year. However, achieving sustained growth and attracting international investment will depend, not just on stable macro indicators, but on long-lasting structural reforms. While the initial signs of economic recovery became apparent in the second half of 2016, it wasn’t until mid-2017 that growth rates began to pick up across most industries.

11 Dec 2017

22 Nov 2017

21 Nov 2017

20 Nov 2017

The refugee crisis, political events and the social reaction to them, natural disasters such as Hurricane Harvey or Hurricane Irma, the sentiments of people or central banks… there is an ever-increasing number of events whose economic impact, in a world of growing risk and uncertainty, is hard to gauge using traditional methods. That’s where ‘Big Data’ and ‘Data Science’ techniques come in, helping to quantify these trends from micro to macro level.

17 Nov 2017

13 Nov 2017

07 Nov 2017

According to BBVA Research’s latest Spain Outlook report, 2017 will cap off Spain’s three-year run of GDP growth at rates above three percent. Recovery will continue in 2018, but at a slower pace, in an environment marked by rising uncertainties. The report was presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of BBVA Group and Head of BBVA Research, Rafael Doménech, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis of BBVA Research and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist Spain and Portugal. Considering this scenario, BBVA Research has downgraded its GDP growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018 to 3.1 and 2.5%, from 3.3% and 2.8% in July.

30 Oct 2017

27 Oct 2017

  • Operating income: Recurring revenues continued their upward trend, growing 4.2% between January and September. This, together with cost containment efforts (expenses dropped 1.7% in the year to September), drove operating income to a record €9.52 billion
  • Risks: The NPL ratio continued to improve, reaching 4.5% in September (vs. 4.8% in June), the lowest level in the past five years. Coverage increased to 72%
  • Capital: The fully-loaded CET1 ratio rose to 11.2% in September, reflecting a capital generation of 30 basis points in the first nine months of the year
  • Transformation: The digital customer base grew 24% y-o-y to 21.1 million in September. Of these, the number of customers banking with their smartphones surged 43% to 15.8 million

19 Oct 2017

17 Oct 2017

The European Commission has published a legislative proposal to create a sort of European Securities and Exchange Commission – that is, a European agency that would centralize some of the stock exchange supervision competencies of the national authorities. Once it is approved, part of the activity that takes place on the European exchanges would come under control of the new European authority.

10 Oct 2017

The country risk premium is the return that investors demand from a country to buy its sovereign bonds in comparison with that demanded from other countries. It is calculated as the difference between the interest rate of a country’s bonds compared to bonds issued by a benchmark country, considered “riskless.”

29 Sep 2017

27 Sep 2017

The recent elections in Germany have ended this year’s electoral cycle in Europe. With euroscepticism weighing in at the ballot box, it’s now up to the European Union to bring its institutions closer to the continent’s citizens, according to José Manuel González-Paramo, Executive Director of BBVA, speaking at a conference on “The New Europe: Challenges and Opportunities” organized by ADEIT.

26 Sep 2017

Speaking this morning at the 22nd annual meeting organized by Bank of America Merrill Lynch in London, Chief Financial Officer Jaime Sáenz de Tejada explained some of the key aspects BBVA’s strategy to investors.  “BBVA is well positioned for the new growth cycle”, thanks to a solid balance sheet and capital position, as a result of the company’s efforts in recent years, its geographic diversification and forward-looking transformation strategy.

22 Sep 2017

13 Sep 2017

30 Aug 2017

After barreling into the state of Texas, as one of the largest and most damaging Hurricanes in U.S history, Hurricane Harvey continues to devastate the Corpus Christi-Houston-Galveston area with catastrophic destruction, human losses, and unprecedented flooding.

As the region begins to pick up the pieces in the weeks, months and years to come, there is a growing concern about the impact that Hurricane Harvey will have on the regional and national economy.

10 Aug 2017

09 Aug 2017

Most people would agree that the U.S. economy’s current expansion cycle has been anemic. Since 2010, average real GDP growth has been 2.1 percent, significantly lower than 3.2 percent between 1992 and 2007. Over time, the cumulative difference between the two paths could be quite dramatic. The average person would be 17 percent less wealthy after 15 years, and 38 percent less wealthy after 30 years.

27 Jul 2017

24 Jul 2017

For every 100 euros European citizens earn, they pay an average of 50 euros in taxes and contributions.  Of the amount they pay in taxes, only 1 euro is devoted to financing the budget of the European Union.  Thus, in total, Europe manages a budget equivalent to 1% of the gross national income of its Member States.  However, the way this money is invested has a direct impact on the lives of Europeans.

The current climate of change inside and outside Europe has led the European Commission to reflect on the future of its public accounts.  In the document entitled  ‘The Future of EU finances‘, the Commission analyzes the current configuration of the budget and its future options. This document is part of a series of reflections brought about by the White Paper on the future of Europe, which set forth the different challenges and scenarios the EU will be facing through 2025.

21 Jul 2017

20 Jul 2017

The Pacific Alliance, made up of Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru, is a regional economic and comercial powerhouse.  This area grows more than the average in Latin America. BBVA Research expects GDP growth of 1.6% and 2.3% in 2017 and 2018, respectively.  “The Pacific Alliance is a success story in integration.  And not by chance.  It shares an ambition and a set of values behind this policy, on how prosperity should be reached,” said Jose Manuel González-Páramo, executive director of BBVA in Santander.