17 Aug 2018
The European Commission enters the final stretch of its mandate. The commissioners who took office in 2014 will leave their posts after the next European elections (in May 2019). Before the current members of the Commission and the European Parliament are replaced, both institutions will conclude negotiations and approval of some of the EU’s priority measures.
06 Aug 2018
The European Union is already readying itself for the possible exit of the United Kingdom from the European club without an agreement between the two sides. Although no scenario has been ruled out, Miguel Jiménez, the chief economist for Europe at BBVA Research, argued in a recent article published in El País that “a no-deal exit in March, with no transitional period, is no longer inconceivable”. In his opinion, this would be the worst possible outcome of Brexit.
07 Jun 2018
The new accounting regulation IFRS 9 aims to buttress financial stability against future crises. It obliges financial institutions to more faithfully reflect credit risk and calculate provisions for insolvencies following an expected loss model (versus the previous “incurred loss” model). For a majority of financial institutions, this has resulted in an increase in provisions and the subsequent impact on capital.
26 Apr 2018
According to BBVA Research’s Latin America Economic Outlook report for the second quarter of 2018, the region’s positive trends of recent years are set to continue, with GDP growth forecasted at 1.4% for 2018 and 2.5% for 2019. However, BBVA’s study service has downgraded its 2018 growth forecast for the region by three tenths.
19 Mar 2018
Financial education is key to guaranteeing a sustainable and inclusive economy, creating an era of opportunity through digital transformation, asserts BBVA’s Executive Director responsible for Global Economics, Regulation & Public Affairs, José Manuel González-Páramo.
22 Feb 2018
The headlines about the U.S. dollar this year have underscored how complicated it is to predict the movement of any one currency in a global economy. They’ve gone from grim (“Dollar set for worst January in 30 years”) to triumphant (“Dollar claws back”) to deflated (“Dollar’s rebound fizzles”) in a matter of weeks.
26 Jan 2018
As had been expected, following its monthly meeting the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged. At the same time, ECB President Mario Draghi introduced the exchange rate as an element of uncertainty, stressing that he will monitor the fluctuations in the euro and their possible consequences. Likewise, he reiterated the possibility of broadening the bond purchase program, continuing his accommodative policy, which will be accompanied by interest rates at minimum levels for a long period of time.
This year, the World Economic Forum at Davos is attracting plenty of attention. From the long-awaited speech by U.S. President Donald Trump to the criticisms of American protectionism and support for global cooperation expressed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, no leader misses their moment in the spotlight to send messages to the world community.
16 Jan 2018
BBVA Research maintains its forecasts for Spain’s GDP growth in 2017 and 2018 at 3.1% and 2.5%, respectively. In addition, it expects that the economic recovery will continue in 2019 (with a 2.3% increase in GDP) and that the improvement in the economy will translate into wage growth. BBVA Research’s latest Spain Economic Outlook was presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of the BBVA Group and Director of BBVA Research; Rafael Doménech, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at BBVA Research; and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist for Spain and Portugal. If these forecasts prove to be correct, Spain´s unemployment rate could drop to 13.4% by end of 2019, which would imply the creation of 860,000 jobs over the next two years.
13 Dec 2017
Once again, the Argentine economy faces critical decisions to avoid a new downturn and take the path to more sustainable growth. Markets are keeping a close eye on the post-electoral roadmap outlined by the administration of President Mauricio Macri.
20 Nov 2017
The refugee crisis, political events and the social reaction to them, natural disasters such as Hurricane Harvey or Hurricane Irma, the sentiments of people or central banks… there is an ever-increasing number of events whose economic impact, in a world of growing risk and uncertainty, is hard to gauge using traditional methods. That’s where ‘Big Data’ and ‘Data Science’ techniques come in, helping to quantify these trends from micro to macro level.
07 Nov 2017
According to BBVA Research’s latest Spain Outlook report, 2017 will cap off Spain’s three-year run of GDP growth at rates above three percent. Recovery will continue in 2018, but at a slower pace, in an environment marked by rising uncertainties. The report was presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of BBVA Group and Head of BBVA Research, Rafael Doménech, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis of BBVA Research and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist Spain and Portugal. Considering this scenario, BBVA Research has downgraded its GDP growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018 to 3.1 and 2.5%, from 3.3% and 2.8% in July.
26 Sep 2017
Perseverance is the key to success. That was the message BBVA’s Group Executive Chairman shared with an audience of finance and banking students at the start of the academic year. “Amazon was about to collapse twice. It has been hard for us, but here we are leading the transformation of the industry,” said Francisco González. Principles are the other fundamental element: “Never give in to misconduct,” he told them.
17 Sep 2017
On the occasion of the annual meeting of the International Advisory Panel of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, BBVA Executive Chairman Francisco González shared his vision of the implications of the current technological revolution: “The technological and digital transformation is an extraordinary opportunity, but actively managing the changes it entails is fundamental to ensuring equal opportunity and the transfer of its enormous benefits, advantages and possibilities to the whole of society.”
10 Jul 2017
This is the message the G20 wanted to transmit at the end of the summit that took place last weekend in Hamburg, Germany. However, it does not seem that this actually reflects the tone among the heads of state. The main point of disagreement was around the U.S. position on climate change. They agreed on issues related to opening markets, international trade and the stability of the financial system.
21 Jun 2017
The tale of the U.S. economy since the election of Donald Trump is one of great expectations but little growth.
16 May 2017
AI is a core focus for BBVA and for many banks around the world.
11 Apr 2017
After the chemical weapons attack on Syrian civilian population, the US launched its first military strike against the Assad regime sending a clearer message to Syria and North Korea. However, it is still early to know whether this is a tactical message or part of a broader strategy. Europe and Asia kept with low conflict levels, while in North Africa, instability rose.
For more information, please visit BBVA Research’s website
30 Mar 2017
There has been an increasing focus on sustainable finance and on the impact of the climate change for the financial stability since 2015 year. Having said that, sustainable finance and the analysis of the consequences of climate change for the financial system are still in a very nascent stage and there is still a lot of work to be done. Two leading projects that are a step in the right direction are those of the Financial Stability Board (FSB) Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) Recommendations -at global level- and the creation of a European Expert Group on sustainable finance -in the EU.
29 Mar 2017
After a years of steep deterioration, Uruguay has managed to partially recover some of the ground lost after a historic fall in productivity. Despite this, a person working in Uruguay today reaches an average productivity slightly above 40% of the level they would achieve working in an advanced economy. How is this possible? What can be done? This paper sets out a potential explanation and suggests a line of action for further progress.
03 Mar 2017
16 Feb 2017
South America’s GDP will recover in 2017 after four years of economic slowdown, while Mexico will bear the impact of the uncertainty surrounding US policies, which is likely to hinder its growth prospects. These are the key conclusions of BBVA Research’s Latin America Outlook Q1 2017 report.
30 Jan 2017
24 Jan 2017
The BBVA Global Markets Research team presented the conclusions of its 2017 strategic equity report. According to BBVA analysts, the positive cyclical momentum is set to continue, with the metal & mining, oil & gas, construction materials, healthcare and telecommunications sectors becoming the best performing industries in Europe. In Spain, the Real Estate sector is expected to be the most dynamic in 2017.
19 Jan 2017
BBVA Executive Chairman Francisco González shared his insights at the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos on some of most pressing issues in economics and current affairs.
On the occasion of his participation in the WEF meeting in Davos, Francisco González, Executive Chairman of BBVA, shared his insights into some of most pressing topics in the current economic, domestic and financial landscapes, and stated that “it is important to preserve legal security.”
17 Jan 2017
46 years ago, in 1971, a group of business leaders reunited under the patronage of the European Comission and some industrial associations. The economist Klaus Schwab chaired the first meeting, with 440 attendants from more than 30 countries in Davos, Switzerland. In this reunion, the European Economic Forum was founded as a non-profit organization with its headquarters in Geneva.
Ever since then, thousands of political and business leaders, artists and enterpreneurs have met in the anual Davos-Kloster meeting. The following 15 milestones are only some of the main events that have marked the history of the World Economic Forum.
16 Jan 2017
The World Economic Forum was founded in 1971 following a proposal by Klaus Schwab, a Swiss business professor, to create a space to analyze and find solutions to global problems. Year after year, political leaders, business personalities and intellectuals have picked up the gauntlet. The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting has become one of the world’s most important centers of social and economic debate. In 2018, the WEF wants to take another step and establish itself as a space for “Creating a Shared Future in a Fractured World,” as its theme says.
When the U.K. voted to leave the EU vote on June 24th, a series of unknowns started to emerge that have Europe in suspense to this day. Among the many questions to be resolved, the referendum has called into question London’s status as the financial center of Europe.
09 Jan 2017
In its December 2016 Banking Outlook report, BBVA Research reviews the most relevant trends and developments in the banking sector. The report analyzes the current status of Spanish banks and also examines the changing regulatory context in the European financial sector.
16 Dec 2016
Europe must press forward even more urgently with its key financial reforms to face current challenges with more resilience, said BBVA’s Executive Board Director José Manuel González-Páramo this morning at a conference in Rome.
09 Dec 2016
The ECB will keep interest rates unchanged and extend its bond-buying program until the end of 2017, although for a lower amount, starting in April. Draghi did not rule out the possibility of new extensions if conditions are not favorable. The market reacted with significant increases.
24 Nov 2016
In 2017, Latin America will manage to grow again, at a rate of about 1.5%, after five years of economic slowdown, said this Thursday BBVA’s Executive Board Director speaking at the Latibex Forum. During his address in the opening day of the annual event, José Manuel González-Páramo noted that “Latin America is at a turning point”.
21 Nov 2016
One of the questions hanging over the European economy and more specifically, the financial sector, is if the ECB will maintain its current policy of low, or even negative, interest rates for an extended period of time. Moreover, after the warnings announced last Thursday by the Chair of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, who predicted a hike of the interest rates “relatively soon” if the improvement in the labour market and the inflation continues.
Economists and experts differ over whether this policy is reaching its end, or is here to stay for a while. While the ECB decides if the low rates will remain or start to increase, banks are reflecting on how to face this new environment that is putting their profitability at risk. One key way is through digitization.
08 Nov 2016
BBVA Executive Chairman Francisco González presented this afternoon in the European Parliament the book La búsqueda de Europa (The Search for Europe), published by BBVA through OpenMind, the institution’s knowledge platform. During his visit to Brussels, Francisco González stressed that Europe needs more structural reforms and more fiscal policies. He also said that Spain will have a bright future if “we are capable of reaching agreements” to continue pushing reforms.
24 Oct 2016
Türkiye Garanti Bankası A.Ş. released its financial statements as of September 30, 2016. Based on the consolidated financial statements from the first nine months period of the year, the bank posted a consolidated net income of TL 3.94 billion. With a total of TL 295.13 billion in assets, Garanti contributed TL 239.26 billion to the economy through cash and non-cash lending. The bank’s Return on Average Equity (ROAE) was 16.1% for this period, while its Return on Average Assets (ROAA) was 1.8%.
14 Oct 2016
10 Oct 2016
Anthony Thomson, founder of Atom Bank, is absolutely clear about his career goal: He wants to redefine customers’ everyday relationship with money, he wants to improve it. He is aware that the financial sector is in the midst of a revolution marked by an unstoppable wave of disruption. “The first change is that money is data and data are the main product of our business” he said during his address in South Summit, where he unveiled three essential challenges that all companies must face to survive in this paradigm shift.
22 Sep 2016
Over the past eight years, we have seen markets panic on a number of occasions. Normally, there was a good reason for the sudden market crashes. Let’s take a look at the periods of greatest market volatility and analyze the central banks’ responses to reassure investors.
13 Sep 2016
One of the consequences of the latest financial crisis for banks has been the so-called non-performing loans or NPLs. Loans regarding which the borrower has either already failed to meet his payment obligations or is showing signs of having difficulties meeting them. Some financial systems, such as Spain’s, have already done their homework clearing their balance sheets. However, for other systems credit quality is still a matter that needs to be addressed. A recent case are Italian banks, which still bear a burden of over €300 billion in this type of assets.
02 Sep 2016
Blockchain technology hopes to help the banking industry’s digital transformation process by improving efficiency, security and transparency and reducing costs.
22 Aug 2016
The history of banking is a story that must be told in stages. It starts with its birth after the 1929 Wall Street Crash with the Glass-Steagall Law, and continues to present day with the Dodd-Frank Law Barack Obama signed after the 2008 financial crisis.
05 Aug 2016
According to BBVA Research’s latest report, Latin America’s slowdown process, which started in 2012, will bottom out this year, with a decline in activity of -0.9%, before giving way to positive GDP growth rates in 2017 of 1.8%. This increase in activity will be driven by growth in both public and private investment, especially in Argentina, Peru and Colombia, as well as stronger activity in the foreign sector, which will benefit from recent sharp currency depreciations and the gradual recovery in commodity prices.
29 Jul 2016
BBVA has demonstrated its solid resilience in the European Banking Authority’s (EBA) stress tests of European banks, published today. In the adverse scenario, the bank would attain a fully-loaded CET1 ratio of 8.2% in 2018.
18 Jul 2016
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The world of finance is in the midst of a revolution thanks to the technological breakthroughs in fields such as big data and blockchain, among others. The booming ecosystem of financial technology startups, the so called fintechs, is changing the financial industry’s mindset and the way it approaches new customers.
12 Jul 2016
Over the past three decades, an economic model has gained a foothold in Chile that has proven successful at a number of levels, such as enabling high GDP growth rates (yearly average of 5.3%), helping the country to significantly bridge the income gap with developed countries such as the U.S. and Germany and improving in the living standards of the population.
29 Jun 2016
Investors, regulators, fintechs … Everyone agrees that one of the keys to successfully transforming the financial system is regulation.
June 23rd was a historic day for Great Britain and Europe as a whole. No large country has ever before decided to leave the European Union. It remains to be seen what the consequences will be for the local and global economy, labour market, and UK trade position. What we do know is that Brexit victory is having an immediate effect on the British Pound and equity markets, sterling is plummeting and traders around the world are trying to make the best of it.