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Financial scenarios

Yesterday

Nothing can prepare you for the loss of a spouse or partner. The emotional burden alone is enough to virtually paralyze even the strongest and most organized people. But the logistics in the aftermath of a death in the family can also be staggering. That’s why it is so important to prepare yourself and your family well in advance.

13 Nov 2018

17 Aug 2018

06 Aug 2018

The European Union is already readying itself for the possible exit of the United Kingdom from the European club without an agreement between the two sides. Although no scenario has been ruled out, Miguel Jiménez, the chief economist for Europe at BBVA Research, argued in a recent article published in El País that “a no-deal exit in March, with no transitional period, is no longer inconceivable”. In his opinion, this would be the worst possible outcome of Brexit.

07 Jun 2018

The new accounting regulation IFRS 9 aims to buttress financial stability against future crises.  It obliges financial institutions to more faithfully reflect credit risk and calculate provisions for insolvencies following an expected loss model (versus the previous “incurred loss” model). For a majority of financial institutions, this has resulted in an increase in provisions and the subsequent impact on capital.

26 Apr 2018

19 Mar 2018

22 Feb 2018

The headlines about the U.S. dollar this year have underscored how complicated it is to predict the movement of any one currency in a global economy. They’ve gone from grim (“Dollar set for worst January in 30 years”) to triumphant (“Dollar claws back”) to deflated (“Dollar’s rebound fizzles”) in a matter of weeks.

26 Jan 2018

As had been expected, following its monthly meeting the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged. At the same time, ECB President Mario Draghi introduced the exchange rate as an element of uncertainty, stressing that he will monitor the fluctuations in the euro and their possible consequences. Likewise, he reiterated the possibility of broadening the bond purchase program, continuing his accommodative policy, which will be accompanied by interest rates at minimum levels for a long period of time.

This year, the World Economic Forum at Davos is attracting plenty of attention. From the long-awaited speech by U.S. President Donald Trump to the criticisms of American protectionism and support for global cooperation expressed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, no leader misses their moment in the spotlight to send messages to the world community.

16 Jan 2018

BBVA Research maintains its forecasts for Spain’s GDP growth in 2017 and 2018 at 3.1% and 2.5%, respectively. In addition, it expects that the economic recovery will continue in 2019  (with a 2.3% increase in GDP) and that the improvement in the economy will translate into wage growth. BBVA Research’s latest Spain Economic Outlook was presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of the BBVA Group and Director of BBVA Research; Rafael Doménech, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at BBVA Research; and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist for Spain and Portugal.  If these forecasts prove to be correct, Spain´s unemployment rate could drop to 13.4% by end of 2019, which would imply the creation of 860,000 jobs over the next two years.

13 Dec 2017

20 Nov 2017

The refugee crisis, political events and the social reaction to them, natural disasters such as Hurricane Harvey or Hurricane Irma, the sentiments of people or central banks… there is an ever-increasing number of events whose economic impact, in a world of growing risk and uncertainty, is hard to gauge using traditional methods. That’s where ‘Big Data’ and ‘Data Science’ techniques come in, helping to quantify these trends from micro to macro level.

07 Nov 2017

According to BBVA Research’s latest Spain Outlook report, 2017 will cap off Spain’s three-year run of GDP growth at rates above three percent. Recovery will continue in 2018, but at a slower pace, in an environment marked by rising uncertainties. The report was presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of BBVA Group and Head of BBVA Research, Rafael Doménech, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis of BBVA Research and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist Spain and Portugal. Considering this scenario, BBVA Research has downgraded its GDP growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018 to 3.1 and 2.5%, from 3.3% and 2.8% in July.

26 Sep 2017

Perseverance is the key to success. That was the message BBVA’s Group Executive Chairman shared with an audience of finance and banking students at the start of the academic year. “Amazon was about to collapse twice. It has been hard for us, but here we are leading the transformation of the industry,” said Francisco González. Principles are the other fundamental element: “Never give in to misconduct,” he told them.

17 Sep 2017

On the occasion of the annual meeting of the International Advisory Panel of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, BBVA Executive Chairman Francisco González shared his vision of the implications of the current technological revolution: “The technological and digital transformation is an extraordinary opportunity, but actively managing the changes it entails is fundamental to ensuring equal opportunity and the transfer of its enormous benefits, advantages and possibilities to the whole of society.”

10 Jul 2017

This is the message the G20 wanted to transmit at the end of the summit that took place last weekend in Hamburg, Germany. However, it does not seem that this actually reflects the tone among the heads of state. The main point of disagreement was around the U.S. position on climate change.  They agreed on issues related to opening markets, international trade and the stability of the financial system.

21 Jun 2017

16 May 2017

11 Apr 2017

After the chemical weapons attack on Syrian civilian population, the US launched its first military strike against the Assad regime sending a clearer message to Syria and North Korea. However, it is still early to know whether this is a tactical message or part of a broader strategy. Europe and Asia kept with low conflict levels, while in North Africa, instability rose.

For more information, please visit BBVA Research’s website

30 Mar 2017

There has been an increasing focus on sustainable finance and on the impact of the climate change for the financial stability since 2015 year. Having said that, sustainable finance and the analysis of the consequences of climate change for the financial system are still in a very nascent stage and there is still a lot of work to be done. Two leading projects that are a step in the right direction are those of the Financial Stability Board (FSB) Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) Recommendations -at global level- and the creation of a European Expert Group on sustainable finance -in the EU.

29 Mar 2017

After a years of steep deterioration, Uruguay has managed to partially recover some of the ground lost after a historic fall in productivity.  Despite this, a person working in Uruguay today reaches an average productivity slightly above 40% of the level they would achieve working in an advanced economy.  How is this possible?  What can be done?  This paper sets out a potential explanation and suggests a line of action for further progress.

03 Mar 2017

16 Feb 2017

30 Jan 2017

24 Jan 2017

The BBVA Global Markets Research team presented the conclusions of its 2017 strategic equity report. According to BBVA analysts, the positive cyclical momentum is set to continue, with the metal & mining, oil & gas, construction materials, healthcare and telecommunications sectors becoming the best performing industries in Europe. In Spain, the Real Estate sector is expected to be the most dynamic in 2017.

19 Jan 2017

17 Jan 2017

46 years ago, in 1971, a group of business leaders reunited under the patronage of the European Comission and some industrial associations. The economist Klaus Schwab chaired the first meeting, with 440 attendants from more than 30 countries in Davos, Switzerland. In this reunion, the European Economic Forum was founded as a non-profit organization with its headquarters in Geneva.

Ever since then, thousands of political and business leaders, artists and enterpreneurs have met in the anual Davos-Kloster meeting. The following 15 milestones are only some of the main events that have marked the history of the World Economic Forum.

16 Jan 2017

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The World Economic Forum was founded in 1971 following a proposal by Klaus Schwab, a Swiss business professor, to create a space to analyze and find solutions to global problems. Year after year, political leaders, business personalities and intellectuals have picked up the gauntlet. The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting has become one of the world’s most important centers of social and economic debate. In 2018, the WEF wants to take another step and establish itself as a space for “Creating a Shared Future in a Fractured World,” as its theme says.

09 Jan 2017

28 Dec 2016

16 Dec 2016

09 Dec 2016

24 Nov 2016

21 Nov 2016

One of the questions hanging over the European economy and more specifically, the financial sector, is if the ECB will maintain its current policy of low, or even negative, interest rates for an extended period of time. Moreover, after the warnings announced last Thursday by the Chair of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, who predicted a hike of the interest rates “relatively soon” if the improvement in the labour market and the inflation continues.

Economists and experts differ over whether this policy is reaching its end, or is here to stay for a while. While the ECB decides if the low rates will remain or start to increase, banks are reflecting on how to face this new environment that is putting their profitability at risk. One key way is through digitization.

08 Nov 2016

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BBVA Executive Chairman Francisco González presented this afternoon in the European Parliament the book La búsqueda de Europa (The Search for Europe), published by BBVA through OpenMind, the institution’s knowledge platform. During his visit to Brussels, Francisco González stressed that Europe needs more structural reforms and more fiscal policies. He also said that Spain will have a bright future if “we are capable of reaching agreements” to continue pushing reforms.

24 Oct 2016

Türkiye Garanti Bankası A.Ş. released its financial statements as of September 30, 2016. Based on the consolidated financial statements from the first nine months period of the year, the bank posted a consolidated net income of TL 3.94 billion. With a total of TL 295.13 billion in assets, Garanti contributed TL 239.26 billion to the economy through cash and non-cash lending. The bank’s Return on Average Equity (ROAE) was 16.1% for this period, while its Return on Average Assets (ROAA) was 1.8%.

14 Oct 2016

10 Oct 2016

Anthony Thomson, founder of Atom Bank, is absolutely clear about his career goal: He wants to redefine customers’ everyday relationship with money, he wants to improve it. He is aware that the financial sector is in the midst of a revolution marked by an unstoppable wave of disruption. “The first change is that money is data and data are the main product of our business” he said during his address in South Summit, where he unveiled three essential challenges that all companies must face to survive in this paradigm shift.

22 Sep 2016

13 Sep 2016

One of the consequences of the latest financial crisis for banks has been the so-called non-performing loans or NPLs. Loans regarding which the borrower has either already failed to meet his payment obligations or is showing signs of having difficulties meeting them. Some financial systems, such as Spain’s, have already done their homework clearing their balance sheets. However, for other systems credit quality is still a matter that needs to be addressed. A recent case are Italian banks, which still bear a burden of over €300 billion in this type of assets.

02 Sep 2016

22 Aug 2016

The history of banking is a story that must be told in stages. It starts with its birth after the 1929 Wall Street Crash with the Glass-Steagall Law, and continues to present day with the Dodd-Frank Law Barack Obama signed after the 2008 financial crisis.

05 Aug 2016

According to BBVA Research’s latest report, Latin America’s slowdown process, which started in 2012, will bottom out this year, with a decline in activity of -0.9%, before giving way to positive GDP growth rates in 2017 of 1.8%. This increase in activity will be driven by growth in both public and private investment, especially in Argentina, Peru and Colombia, as well as stronger activity in the foreign sector, which will benefit from recent sharp currency depreciations and the gradual recovery in commodity prices.

29 Jul 2016

18 Jul 2016

12 Jul 2016

Over the past three decades, an economic model has gained a foothold in Chile that has proven successful at a number of levels, such as enabling high GDP growth rates (yearly average of 5.3%), helping the country to significantly bridge the income gap with developed countries such as the U.S. and Germany and improving  in the living standards of the population.