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Geostrategy

Today

International investment in infrastructure projects continues to be insufficient. This is the conclusion reached at the B20 summit where global companies provided guidance to the G20. According to the task force charged with studying growth and infrastructure financing, the infrastructure investment gap needs to be resolved to exploit the sector’s enormous potential and drive more inclusive development.

12 Apr 2018

Fears of a trade war between the U.S. and China are escalating by the day. Trump announced extra duties on 10% of Chinese imports and the two world powers have entered into a “tit-for-tat” trade retaliation that has unnerved investors and shaken financial markets. Nevertheless, the likelihood that these skirmishes will turn into a full-blown trade war are still low, as explained in a BBVA Research report.

09 Apr 2018

Europe and the U.S. need to promote global trade and services standards. And to do this, they must keep relying on multilateral agreements, which set out a strategic position with respect to third parties from a commercial, economic and political point of view. “The United States and Europe, united, are much stronger,” said José Manuel González-Páramo, Executive Member of the Board, Head of Global Economics, Regulation and Public Affairs at BBVA, in Barcelona on Monday.

12 Mar 2018

Over 300 businessmen Monday took part in a meeting in Bilbao of the Business 20 (B20) –a corporate forum of the G20. The companies present at the meeting are at the vanguard of digitalization and industry 4.0. At the start of the event, José Manuel González-Páramo, BBVA Executive Board member and vice president of one of the B20 task forces, called for “greater cooperation between the public and private sectors” to meet the challenges posed by the new digital economy.

09 Mar 2018

Eight years have passed since the B20, known as the “Business G20”, met for the first times with the view of providing G20 leaders with proposals for more inclusive development. Since then a number of constructive policies have been put forward, although the main economic and social problems facing the world remain an unresolved challenge.  The B20 has not only become a beacon throwing light on how to tackle these challenges, but also plays a crucial role within the  G20. It is Argentina’s turn in 2018 to lead this mission.

29 Jan 2018

26 Jan 2018

This year, the World Economic Forum at Davos is attracting plenty of attention. From the long-awaited speech by U.S. President Donald Trump to the criticisms of American protectionism and support for global cooperation expressed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, no leader misses their moment in the spotlight to send messages to the world community.

18 Jan 2018

U.S. President Donald Trump has confirmed his attendance at this year’s annual World Economic Forum, which will kick off on January 23 at Davos, Switzerland. President Trump will share the spotlight with some 60 heads of state and government, and an ensemble of business leaders, scholars, artists and prominent figures from civil society. Together, they will seek to deliver on the meeting’s theme: “Creating a shared future in a fractured world.’ Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Trump will deliver the event’s opening and closing speeches, respectively.

15 Dec 2017

12 Dec 2017

21 Nov 2017

20 Nov 2017

The refugee crisis, political events and the social reaction to them, natural disasters such as Hurricane Harvey or Hurricane Irma, the sentiments of people or central banks… there is an ever-increasing number of events whose economic impact, in a world of growing risk and uncertainty, is hard to gauge using traditional methods. That’s where ‘Big Data’ and ‘Data Science’ techniques come in, helping to quantify these trends from micro to macro level.

27 Sep 2017

The recent elections in Germany have ended this year’s electoral cycle in Europe. With euroscepticism weighing in at the ballot box, it’s now up to the European Union to bring its institutions closer to the continent’s citizens, according to José Manuel González-Paramo, Executive Director of BBVA, speaking at a conference on “The New Europe: Challenges and Opportunities” organized by ADEIT.

20 Jul 2017

The Pacific Alliance, made up of Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru, is a regional economic and comercial powerhouse.  This area grows more than the average in Latin America. BBVA Research expects GDP growth of 1.6% and 2.3% in 2017 and 2018, respectively.  “The Pacific Alliance is a success story in integration.  And not by chance.  It shares an ambition and a set of values behind this policy, on how prosperity should be reached,” said Jose Manuel González-Páramo, executive director of BBVA in Santander.

10 Jul 2017

This is the message the G20 wanted to transmit at the end of the summit that took place last weekend in Hamburg, Germany. However, it does not seem that this actually reflects the tone among the heads of state. The main point of disagreement was around the U.S. position on climate change.  They agreed on issues related to opening markets, international trade and the stability of the financial system.

07 Jul 2017

All eyes are already set on Hamburg, where, under Germany’s presidency, the G20 leaders will be meeting today and tomorrow to agree on a program to deliver on the goal set in this year’s slogan: “Shaping the interconnected world.”

21 Jun 2017

02 Jun 2017

26 May 2017

18 May 2017

April 2017 Update. Tensions continued between North Korea and US over the nuclear test programme and the US increased its missile defence system in the area. The Chinese will continue to maintain the statuo quo while the tone of the US escalated but softened thereafter. In the Middle East, the advances of the coalition forces continue and the the ISIS situation deteriorates. The US decided to advance in Raqqa (the ISIS capital) supporting the YPG forces in the combats. Turkey has already protested the decision. Social unrest increased in some Latin American countries, while Asia remained calm. Uncertainties about the future of Europe decreased after Macron’s victory in French elections.

For more information, please visit BBVA Research’s website

11 Apr 2017

After the chemical weapons attack on Syrian civilian population, the US launched its first military strike against the Assad regime sending a clearer message to Syria and North Korea. However, it is still early to know whether this is a tactical message or part of a broader strategy. Europe and Asia kept with low conflict levels, while in North Africa, instability rose.

For more information, please visit BBVA Research’s website

10 Mar 2017

03 Mar 2017

02 Mar 2017

In a meeting organized by the Rafael del Pino Foundation to discuss the future of Europe, José Manuel González-Páramo said that the “European Union is more necessary today than ever” to rise up to find a solution to the Old Continent’s most pressing issues. According to BBVA’s Executive Board Director, the EU now faces the challenge, but also the opportunity, to plot its future without the UK, one of its traditional and more important, partners.

On the financial plane, BBVA’s Executive Board Director highlighted the EU’s achievements in its path towards building a banking union. However, he warned about the need to keep moving ahead with the reforms and completing the following stage in the process: the rollout of the EDIS, the European Deposit Insurance Scheme.

21 Feb 2017

07 Feb 2017

The usual “known unknowns” continue to be alive and new ones could join this year. In the short term, the anti ISIS offensive continues and still far from being solved. Meanwhile the long lasting conflict between Russia and Ukraine looks to escalate. North Africa and the Middle East will continue to be the main hot spots in 2017, but higher political and geopolitical uncertainties could arise all over the world. The rise of populism and constrains to the flows of people (anti-immigration) and trade (protectionism) will challenge the international rules and globalisation. The new agenda by the US administration and the response of China, Russia and the Middle East, as well as uncertainties in Europe (elections and the Brexit) will continue to shape the dynamics of the geopolitics of the coming years.

For more information, please visit BBVA Research’s website

24 Jan 2017

The BBVA Global Markets Research team presented the conclusions of its 2017 strategic equity report. According to BBVA analysts, the positive cyclical momentum is set to continue, with the metal & mining, oil & gas, construction materials, healthcare and telecommunications sectors becoming the best performing industries in Europe. In Spain, the Real Estate sector is expected to be the most dynamic in 2017.

16 Jan 2017

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The World Economic Forum was founded in 1971 following a proposal by Klaus Schwab, a Swiss business professor, to create a space to analyze and find solutions to global problems. Year after year, political leaders, business personalities and intellectuals have picked up the gauntlet. The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting has become one of the world’s most important centers of social and economic debate. In 2018, the WEF wants to take another step and establish itself as a space for “Creating a Shared Future in a Fractured World,” as its theme says.

13 Jan 2017

19 Dec 2016

14 Sep 2016

02 Aug 2016

The recent report, The Business of Financial Inclusion: Insights from Banks in Emerging Markets represents a new endeavor for the Institute of International Finance (IIF). It is based on the insights of 24 executives in charge of financial inclusion, a topic of growing interest.

03 Jun 2016

The trade finance or foreign trade activity accompanies people and businesses in their activity importing/exporting goods and services, mitigating the risks that exist in international commercial relations and simplifying the settlement of operations. The same commercial transaction can require different solutions over time, depending on the moment at which it takes place and the role of the parties involved (importer or exporter).

09 May 2016

More than seven months ago, the European Commission (CE) launched its action plan to help build a true single market for capital, one of the pivotal pending issues in Europe’s path towards integration. One of the key goals of the single market is to improve access to financing for European companies and to unblock the barriers to investments between countries of the European Union (EU). What progress has been made so far since September? And especially, what other pending points should be addressed before the end of 2016?

25 Apr 2016

The buzz surrounding the TTIP – the free-trade treaty that the US and the European Union started negotiating back in 2013 – keeps growing louder. While the name may already ring a bell for a majority of people, many may still be wondering what’s behind the acronym and how will it affect, for good or for bad, the Spanish economy and, by extension, our everyday lives.

The last week of April could mark the turning point for the signing of the TTIP, the free trade partnership between the US and Europe. Several key appointments are scheduled to take place during those days, including Obama and Merkel’s face to face meeting. All these appointments will be key for the eventual signing of the treaty in 2016.

23 Mar 2016

15 Mar 2016

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BBVA Research’s Chief Economist for Europe, Miguel Jiménez, analyzes the potential consequences of the U.K. leaving the EU in the blog El Catalejo –The Spyglass. “Brexit would be bad news for the U.K. and the rest of Europe. In general, the U.K. remaining part of the EU would benefit everyone,” he indicates. “Brexit would have a significant economic cost for the British economy – around 3% of GDP according to most estimates.”

04 Mar 2016

It wasn’t long ago that Jean-Claude Juncker said that politicians all knew what measures were needed to resolve Europe’s problems, but no one knew how to get re-elected after applying them. Now the situation is more complicated. Europe is facing new problems, and it is no longer what needs to be done to address them.

11 Feb 2016

BBVA executive director said this morning that “the free trade agreement between the EU and the U.S., or TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership), is an existential agreement for Europe.” José Manuel González-Páramo considers that “trade is at the core of the continent’s DNA, and trade helps us innovate.” Thus, from a point of view of diversifying trade and increasing the soundness of the export sector, “the agreement’s success would be a good thing.”

04 Feb 2016

Central banks in Latin America are finding it particularly difficult to meet their target of low and stable inflation, since many countries are facing at the same time problems of high inflation (fueled by the depreciation of the exchange rate) and low economic growth.

15 Jan 2016

What happens if a German citizen wants to take out a mortgage from an Italian bank that does not operate in his country? What barriers will he face beyond the language? This is what is intended to be found out by the European Commission, which has presented the much-awaited Green Paper on Retail Financial Services.

07 Jan 2016

The commodities boom has reached its end, impacting strongly on Latin American economies. Fiscal balances have been affected by lower currency revenue, currencies have devalued significantly, with the subsequent fall in the value of exports, and the exchange rate effect has led to a rise in inflation.  It has also had a negative impact on GDP growth that could become more pronounced if prices fall further in 2016.

21 Dec 2015

Up until now, many things have been written about the possible consequences – positive and not so positive – of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the US for the European Union. What has not been discussed so widely are the agreement’s geopolitical repercussions on both sides of the Atlantic.