The BBVA Research team has published its Economic Outlook for fourth quarter 2018, a timely look at the anticipated economic impact of midterm elections.

Changing monetary policy in the U.S. and Europe and tension over trade are the two main global “shocks” facing emerging economies. BBVA participated in the 2018 IIF MENA Financial Summit in Abu Dhabi, where a group of experts analyzed the global macroeconomic outlook and its impact on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).

José Manuel González-Páramo called for Europe to move forward now, not “just when there’s a crisis”, and to conclude the banking union, the capital markets union and the fiscal union to have a “much more robust and genuine euro.” Speaking at the Círculo de Economía in Barcelona, he stressed the role that the ECB played in Europe’s recovery. However, the bank must now go back to its original purpose of “contributing to financial stability and separating supervision from monetary policy.”

After the hike in interest rates by the Central Bank of Turkey on September 13 (625 basis points from 17.75 percent to 24 percent), the Turkish government today (Thursday) unveiled a new economic program for the next three years (2019-2021). BBVA Research in a report released Thursday believes that both monetary policy and fiscal policy are now better geared toward correcting inflation and the imbalances of the Turkish economy.

As widely expected, the ECB concluded its monetary policy meeting yesterday without making any changes to its monetary policy stance. As BBVA Research’s ECB Watch report notes, there were other key takeaways that came out of the meeting, such as the end of the Asset Purchase Programming, and the confirmation that the bank is in no rush to hike interest rates. From an economic standpoint, the institution affirmed its inflation outlook but slightly lowered its growth expectations for the euro zone.

In recent months, concerns surrounding the financial health of the business sector have been on the rise. In particular, market participants are worried that higher price pressures, faster monetary policy normalization, and a trade war, amid stretched valuations, could trigger a significant decline in risk appetite. This would lead to higher borrowing costs and tighter financial conditions.

The European Commission enters the final stretch of its mandate. The commissioners who took office in 2014 will leave their posts after the next European elections (in May 2019). Before the current members of the Commission and the European Parliament are replaced, both institutions will conclude negotiations and approval of some of the EU’s priority measures.

International investment in infrastructure projects continues to be insufficient. This is the conclusion reached at the B20 summit where global companies provided guidance to the G20. According to the task force charged with studying growth and infrastructure financing, the infrastructure investment gap needs to be resolved to exploit the sector’s enormous potential and drive more inclusive development.

The European Union is already readying itself for the possible exit of the United Kingdom from the European club without an agreement between the two sides. Although no scenario has been ruled out, Miguel Jiménez, the chief economist for Europe at BBVA Research, argued in a recent article published in El País that “a no-deal exit in March, with no transitional period, is no longer inconceivable”. In his opinion, this would be the worst possible outcome of Brexit.

BBVA Research maintains its GDP growth forecasts for Spain at 2.9 percent for 2018 and 2.5 percent for 2019. The increasing likelihood that some risks might finally materialize could drive the Spanish economy to slower growth scenarios, according to the latest Spain Economic Outlook report published by BBVA’s studies unit. The report was presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of BBVA Group and Head of BBVA Research, Rafael Doménech, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis of BBVA Research and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist Spain and Portugal. Under this scenario, the country is expected to generate about 880,000 jobs over the two-year period, causing the country’s unemployment rate to drop below 14%.

The main indicators show the U.S. economy has performed well in the year so far, with a rise in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment and wages as well as higher exports.

The new accounting regulation IFRS 9 aims to buttress financial stability against future crises.  It obliges financial institutions to more faithfully reflect credit risk and calculate provisions for insolvencies following an expected loss model (versus the previous “incurred loss” model). For a majority of financial institutions, this has resulted in an increase in provisions and the subsequent impact on capital.

BBVA Research has raised its growth forecasts for US growth and now sees GDP at 2.8% this year and the next due to the strength of the global economy and the Trump administration’s fiscal stimulus.

According to BBVA Research’s Latin America Economic Outlook report for the second quarter of 2018, the region’s positive trends of recent years are set to continue, with GDP growth forecasted at 1.4% for 2018 and 2.5% for 2019. However, BBVA’s study service has downgraded its 2018 growth forecast for the region by three tenths.

Eight years have passed since the B20, known as the “Business G20”, met for the first times with the view of providing G20 leaders with proposals for more inclusive development. Since then a number of constructive policies have been put forward, although the main economic and social problems facing the world remain an unresolved challenge.  The B20 has not only become a beacon throwing light on how to tackle these challenges, but also plays a crucial role within the  G20. It is Argentina’s turn in 2018 to lead this mission.

Over the past three years, the asset allocation team of BBVA Asset Management has overhauled its investment process to bring as much objectivity as possible to decision-making when building a portfolio. Based on the principles of behavioral economics, the new process aims to determine how the power of the mind affects financial decisions.

BBVA Compass assembled a worldly-wise panel in Houston last week to help its Global Markets clients, all of whom maintain assets outside the U.S., sort through the barrage of global economic news to better understand the risks.

As had been expected, following its monthly meeting the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged. At the same time, ECB President Mario Draghi introduced the exchange rate as an element of uncertainty, stressing that he will monitor the fluctuations in the euro and their possible consequences. Likewise, he reiterated the possibility of broadening the bond purchase program, continuing his accommodative policy, which will be accompanied by interest rates at minimum levels for a long period of time.

This year, the World Economic Forum at Davos is attracting plenty of attention. From the long-awaited speech by U.S. President Donald Trump to the criticisms of American protectionism and support for global cooperation expressed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, no leader misses their moment in the spotlight to send messages to the world community.

Economic activity in Latin America has been invigorated in recent months, in line with the recovery of confidence among families and businesses and a more favorable external context. In its Latin America Economic Outlook for first quarter 2018, BBVA Research forecasts that the region’s growth will increase from 1.1% in 2017 to 1.7% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019.

BBVA Research maintains its forecasts for Spain’s GDP growth in 2017 and 2018 at 3.1% and 2.5%, respectively. In addition, it expects that the economic recovery will continue in 2019  (with a 2.3% increase in GDP) and that the improvement in the economy will translate into wage growth. BBVA Research’s latest Spain Economic Outlook was presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of the BBVA Group and Director of BBVA Research; Rafael Doménech, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at BBVA Research; and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist for Spain and Portugal.  If these forecasts prove to be correct, Spain´s unemployment rate could drop to 13.4% by end of 2019, which would imply the creation of 860,000 jobs over the next two years.

In late 2017, the European Commission established a roadmap for deepening the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The plan represented yet another step towards the economic integration of the EU, during a political year marked by the elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany and the Brexit negotiations with the United Kingdom. One of the most far-reaching proposals is transformation of the current European Stability Mechanism (ESM) into a European Monetary Fund (EMF). The year 2018 opens with the challenge of implementing this proposal.

Argentina’s small and medium sized enterprises, despite being pummeled by taxes and struggling to access credit, managed to survive the collapse of consumption. Now, they are gearing up to capitalize on the improving economic outlook, thanks to the lending and tax measures that the government will roll out in short to encourage them to invest. Four our of every 10 companies say they intend to do so.

During 2017, the European Union managed to weather populist electoral bids in its member countries, and to keep the Brexit talks on track. But the year to come presents even larger challenges that will require a sustained, collective effort by EU leaders, says BBVA Executive Director José Manuel González-Páramo.

Agriculture has become the driver of the Argentine economy. Heavy investment in infrastructure (roads, trains, hydraulic construction) will help to improve costs, opening the road to a growth which seems infinite, thanks to a persistent and solid demand.

Once again, the Argentine economy faces critical decisions to avoid a new downturn and take the path to more sustainable growth. Markets are keeping a close eye on the post-electoral roadmap outlined by the administration of President Mauricio Macri.

The outlook for Argentina’s economy in 2018 remains optimistic, with GDP expected to expand by nearly 3% for the second consecutive year. However, achieving sustained growth and attracting international investment will depend, not just on stable macro indicators, but on long-lasting structural reforms. While the initial signs of economic recovery became apparent in the second half of 2016, it wasn’t until mid-2017 that growth rates began to pick up across most industries.

María José Roa, a researcher at the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies (CEMLA), recently presented the results of her study, “The importance of financial capabilities: an empirical analysis in the Andean region,” which was carried out with the collaboration of CAF (the Development Bank of Latin America).

The oldest private domestic bank in Argentina and one of the leaders in Latin America, BBVA Francés on October 14 marked its 130th year in operation and its 21st year as part of the BBVA Group. In the course of its history, BBVA Francés has gone from being a 20th century “temple of money,” to a powerhouse of digital banking in the Argentina of the 21st century.

The refugee crisis, political events and the social reaction to them, natural disasters such as Hurricane Harvey or Hurricane Irma, the sentiments of people or central banks… there is an ever-increasing number of events whose economic impact, in a world of growing risk and uncertainty, is hard to gauge using traditional methods. That’s where ‘Big Data’ and ‘Data Science’ techniques come in, helping to quantify these trends from micro to macro level.

Latin America will be one of the leaders of the global economy. The digital transformation has been one of the keys to this reduction in poverty and improvement in social indicators. But how has it helped? One example is digital financial inclusion.

According to BBVA Research’s latest Spain Outlook report, 2017 will cap off Spain’s three-year run of GDP growth at rates above three percent. Recovery will continue in 2018, but at a slower pace, in an environment marked by rising uncertainties. The report was presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of BBVA Group and Head of BBVA Research, Rafael Doménech, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis of BBVA Research and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist Spain and Portugal. Considering this scenario, BBVA Research has downgraded its GDP growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018 to 3.1 and 2.5%, from 3.3% and 2.8% in July.

BBVA Research has upgraded its Latin America 2017 growth forecast by 30 basic points, citing improvement in domestic demand in Mexico and Peru. The BBVA Group study service expects the region to grow 1.1% in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018.

The country risk premium is the return that investors demand from a country to buy its sovereign bonds in comparison with that demanded from other countries. It is calculated as the difference between the interest rate of a country’s bonds compared to bonds issued by a benchmark country, considered “riskless.”

After seven years of negotiations, the Canada-Europe Trade Agreement, CETA, has entered into force provisionally.  Under this bilateral agreement, the most ambitious signed to date by Brussels, most custom duties levied on trade flows between both countries will be scrapped.

During the presidential election, then-presidential-candidate Donald Trump proposed various plans aiming to boost the U.S. economy to a state of higher economic growth, high labor participation rate, low unemployment, and reduced trade deficits. Specifically, those plans asked for increasing infrastructure spending and implementing protectionist trade policies.

Most people would agree that the U.S. economy’s current expansion cycle has been anemic. Since 2010, average real GDP growth has been 2.1 percent, significantly lower than 3.2 percent between 1992 and 2007. Over time, the cumulative difference between the two paths could be quite dramatic. The average person would be 17 percent less wealthy after 15 years, and 38 percent less wealthy after 30 years.

If you ask scientists in the field of artificial intelligence when they expect fiction to become reality and robots’ intelligence to exceed that of humans, they would likely say it’s right around the corner, sometime between 2030 and 2050.

Mexico´s medium —and long— term perspectives are favorable, given the possibility of an improved NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) and recent, profound structural reforms that are beginning to bear fruit.

For every 100 euros European citizens earn, they pay an average of 50 euros in taxes and contributions.  Of the amount they pay in taxes, only 1 euro is devoted to financing the budget of the European Union.  Thus, in total, Europe manages a budget equivalent to 1% of the gross national income of its Member States.  However, the way this money is invested has a direct impact on the lives of Europeans.

The current climate of change inside and outside Europe has led the European Commission to reflect on the future of its public accounts.  In the document entitled  ‘The Future of EU finances‘, the Commission analyzes the current configuration of the budget and its future options. This document is part of a series of reflections brought about by the White Paper on the future of Europe, which set forth the different challenges and scenarios the EU will be facing through 2025.

The Federal Open Market Committee will forgo rate increases when it meets next week, leaving the target federal funds rate at 1.25%.

The Pacific Alliance, made up of Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru, is a regional economic and comercial powerhouse.  This area grows more than the average in Latin America. BBVA Research expects GDP growth of 1.6% and 2.3% in 2017 and 2018, respectively.  “The Pacific Alliance is a success story in integration.  And not by chance.  It shares an ambition and a set of values behind this policy, on how prosperity should be reached,” said Jose Manuel González-Páramo, executive director of BBVA in Santander.

Argentina and Brazil are finally pulling out of recession and driving the economic growth in Latin America as a whole this year, despite the slowdown in other countries in the region. According to BBVA Resarch’s ‘Latin America Economic Outlook’ Q3 report, the region will grow 0.8% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018.

BBVA Research places Spain at 30th in the digitization ranking of 100 countries, an intermediate position behind nations such as Germany or France, but ahead of other southern European countries like Italy or Portugal. However, Spain “is much better prepared for the Fourth Industrial Revolution than it was for the previous ones,” says Rafael Doménech, head of Macroeconomic Analysis at BBVA Research.

This is the message the G20 wanted to transmit at the end of the summit that took place last weekend in Hamburg, Germany. However, it does not seem that this actually reflects the tone among the heads of state. The main point of disagreement was around the U.S. position on climate change.  They agreed on issues related to opening markets, international trade and the stability of the financial system.

The tale of the U.S. economy since the election of Donald Trump is one of great expectations but little growth.

Millennials are perhaps the most overanalyzed and overgeneralized generation in history, and the myths surrounding them are endless. From “clueless” to “brainiest” and “self-obsessed” to “socially conscious,” the stereotypes of those born between 1982 and 1995 are often contradictory and range from flattering to derogatory. But just like any other generation, Millennials are by no means homogenous.

As the markets expected, at its June meeting the European Central Bank (ECB) closed the door on further interest-rate cuts and adopted a more neutral stance on risks, although maintaining caution. Despite the fact that the institution has not yet given signs of taking a step to exit the current monetary policy, the ECB Watch report published by BBVA Research suggests that in September it may announce a slowdown in asset purchases starting in 2018.