Close panel

Close panel

Close panel

Close panel

Macroeconomics analysis

18 Jan 2021

texto foto

This year, the Davos Forum will be celebrating its most special and challenging edition, in the midst of the ongoing COVID pandemic. For this reason, the 51st edition of the World Economic Forum (World Economic Forum, WEF) will be held in two phases: An virtual one in January and another one, face-to-face, in August. The summit will convene politicians, businessmen and representatives of social and cultural organizations at a crucial time for the world, under the tagline ‘The Great Reset‘.

28 Oct 2020

BBVA’s chairman participated this Tuesday in the first edition of the Expansión International Economic Forum, organized by the financial newspaper Expansión and the international forum, the European House-Ambrosetti, in Alcalá de Henares, Madrid.  “Public-private collaboration can leverage private initiatives to make investment decisions and generate prosperity,” said Carlos Torres Vila. In this regard, he feels that “the work of the public sector is to attract private investment with appropriate incentive schemes that manage to multiply European funds,” and in this process, “banks can play a key role” to channel the funds, analyze the projects being financed and strengthen their effect on the economy with their financing.

16 Sep 2020

20 Aug 2020

06 Aug 2020

14 Jul 2020

Spain’s GDP could contract 11.5 percent in 2020 and grow seven percent in 2021, according to the latest ‘Spain Economic Outlook’ report, which was presented this Tuesday by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist at BBVA Group and Director of BBVA Research; Rafael Doménech, BBVA Research Head of Economic Analysis; and Miguel Cardoso, BBVA Research’s Chief Economist for Spain. The contraction that is expected in 2020 represents a downgrade from the previous report’s forecast, which estimated an eight percent drop in GDP this year. The downward revision is mainly due to the fact that lockdown measures were in place longer than anticipated and these restrictions had a greater impact on demand, like in other European countries. Still, the reduction in number of COVID-19 infections and the easing of restrictions has led to a strong recovery. The ambitious policy announcements in Europe and a significant fiscal stimulus in Spain reinforces the expectation that this trend will continue. Even so, the risks continue to tilt to the downside in a climate of continued heightened uncertainty.

06 Jul 2020

09 Jun 2020

21 May 2020

27 Apr 2020

21 Apr 2020

In its latest edition of ‘Spain Outlook‘ – presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Director of BBVA Research Chief Economist of BBVA Group, and Rafael Doménech, Head of Economic Analysis of BBVA – BBVA’s research service estimates that the containment measures implemented to curb contagion rates and reign in the Covid-19 pandemic will cause Spain’s GDP to decline 8 percent year-on-year (compared to its previous 1.6 percent growth forecast). The decline may drive to an unemployment rate above 20 percent this year. In 2021, as a result of the expected global recovery and the policies promoted by both European institutions and the government of Spain, Spain’s GDP growth rate could reach 5.7 percent year-on-year.

14 Apr 2020

In order to emerge from the COVID-19 crisis as soon as possible, it is important to adopt measures designed to preserve jobs, especially for SMEs and the self- employed, said BBVA’s Group executive chairman. At this point, “We need to put ourselves in the position of the self employed and business owners,” Carlos Torres Vila said Monday night in an interview with Spanish radio station COPE. In this regard, he stressed the role of banks to help these business endeavors overcome the crisis.

31 Mar 2020

28 Jan 2020

23 Jan 2020

20 Jan 2020

The B20 – or “G20 for businesses” – is a forum of private international companies that provides recommendations to the G20 to address the most relevant challenges of the global economic and financial agenda. This year, Saudi Arabia will preside over the meeting. BBVA has played a very active role in the B20 since 2015, thanks to BBVA Executive Board Member José Manuel González-Páramo, who serves as Vice Chair of the Finance and Infrastructure Task Force.

15 Jan 2020

In its latest Spain Economic Outlook report – presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Director of BBVA Research and Chief Economist of BBVA Group, and Rafael Doménech, Head of Economic Analysis – BBVA’s research unit upheld the scenario it forecasted three months ago, which envisages a slowdown in Spain’s domestic GDP growth rate to 1.6% in 2020 from the 1.9% rate measured at 2019 year end. For 2021, a slightly more favorable international environment could result in a slight uptick in growth, with rates reverting to the 1.9% range. According to BBVA Research, this scenario would drive the creation of 600,000 jobs over the 2020-2021 timeframe, driving the unemployment rate down to around 12.5 percent, in average, in 2021.

08 Jan 2020

According to BBVA Research’s latest Country Risk Quarterly Report, financial tensions have eased across all regions, markets, and asset classes with the exception of Latin America. Emerging Asia is the only region where all variables for the macroeconomic vulnerability radar analysis stand below their corresponding risk thresholds. Between 2018 and 2019 there were no significant changes to the degree of macroeconomic vulnerability across all developed economies, whereas within emerging regions, changes were concentrated in Latin America.

13 Dec 2019

14 Oct 2019

In its latest Spain Outlook report, presented today by Jorge Sicilia, the Director of BBVA Research and Chief Economist for the BBVA Group, and Rafael Doménech, the Head of Economic Analysis, BBVA Research lowered the forecast for the national GDP growth to 1.9 percent (from 2.3 percent three months ago) and to 1.6 percent for 2020 (from the previous forecast of 1.9 percent). The decrease is explained by a review of economic data carried out by Spain’s national statistics body, the INE, due to the negative trend in some components of demand and the deteriorating international context. Under this scenario, around 750,000 jobs would be created over the two-year period and the unemployment rate would average 13.3 percent next year.

30 Sep 2019

17 Jul 2019

In its latest Spain Economic Outlook report – presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Director of BBVA Research and Chief Economist of BBVA Group, and Rafael Doménech, Head of Economic Analysis – BBVA’s research service slightly upgrades its domestic GDP growth forecast for 2019 to 2.3% (vs. 2.2% three months ago), and keeps its 2020 forecast unchanged at 1.9%. The economy is expected to continue expanding in the coming months, driven by the progressive recovery of the global environment, a more accommodative monetary policy and declining oil prices. Under this scenario, BBVA Research expects 810,000 new jobs to be created over the coming two-year period, driving the unemployment rate down to around 12.2% by the end of 2020.

08 Apr 2019

BBVA Research, the research services arm of BBVA, has released its most recent edition of the “Spain Economic Outlook” where it forecasts a slight slowdown in growth. The report was presented today by BBVA Research Director and BBVA Group Chief Economist, Jorge Sicilia, and Rafael Doménech, Head of Economic Analysis at BBVA Research. The forecast lowers first quarter expectations to 2.2 percent in 2019 and 1.9 percent in 2020 (from 2.4 percent and 2 percent, respectively). Even so, the report signals that an improvement in economic activity could be underpinned by the global economy’s gradual recovery, an increasingly expansionary stance on monetary policy, continued low oil prices, and the positive conclusion to uncertainty stemming from different sources. Consequences of such a scenario would see a salary increase exceeding the inflation rate, an up to 12 percent reduction in unemployment in 2020, and the creation of close to 630,000 jobs over the next two years.

07 Feb 2019

22 Jan 2019

12 Dec 2018

BBVA Asset Management (BBVA AM) believes that the stock market may be the most profitable asset for the coming year as a whole, but within a volatile market environment. This has been pointed out by Joaquín García Huerga, director of Global Strategy of BBVA Asset Management, in the presentation of the market outlook for 2019. If the economic cycle is not turned around, the stock markets could rise by an average of 10% by adding dividends.

14 Nov 2018

13 Nov 2018

08 Oct 2018

José Manuel González-Páramo called for Europe to move forward now, not “just when there’s a crisis”, and to conclude the banking union, the capital markets union and the fiscal union to have a “much more robust and genuine euro.” Speaking at the Círculo de Economía in Barcelona, he stressed the role that the ECB played in Europe’s recovery. However, the bank must now go back to its original purpose of “contributing to financial stability and separating supervision from monetary policy.”