BBVA Research modified its forecast of Latin America’s growth. The region will continue recovering, but growth will be more moderate and gradual than expected, primarily due to external factors. BBVA economists estimate that Latin America will grow 2.1% in 2019 and 2.14% in 2020 (or 0.3% and 0.2% less than previously expected, respectively).
10 Jan 2019
The 49th World Economic Forum, known as the Davos Forum, is set to begin on January 22 in the Swiss district of Davos-Klosters. For four days politicians, businessmen, and representatives from social and cultural organizations will gather to discuss global problems and identify solutions. This year, the forum will place special emphasis on international collaboration, giving the world a voice.
26 Apr 2018
According to BBVA Research’s Latin America Economic Outlook report for the second quarter of 2018, the region’s positive trends of recent years are set to continue, with GDP growth forecasted at 1.4% for 2018 and 2.5% for 2019. However, BBVA’s study service has downgraded its 2018 growth forecast for the region by three tenths.
25 Jan 2018
Economic activity in Latin America has been invigorated in recent months, in line with the recovery of confidence among families and businesses and a more favorable external context. In its Latin America Economic Outlook for first quarter 2018, BBVA Research forecasts that the region’s growth will increase from 1.1% in 2017 to 1.7% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019.
17 Dec 2017
Argentina’s small and medium sized enterprises, despite being pummeled by taxes and struggling to access credit, managed to survive the collapse of consumption. Now, they are gearing up to capitalize on the improving economic outlook, thanks to the lending and tax measures that the government will roll out in short to encourage them to invest. Four our of every 10 companies say they intend to do so.
15 Dec 2017
During 2017, the European Union managed to weather populist electoral bids in its member countries, and to keep the Brexit talks on track. But the year to come presents even larger challenges that will require a sustained, collective effort by EU leaders, says BBVA Executive Director José Manuel González-Páramo.
13 Dec 2017
Once again, the Argentine economy faces critical decisions to avoid a new downturn and take the path to more sustainable growth. Markets are keeping a close eye on the post-electoral roadmap outlined by the administration of President Mauricio Macri.
The outlook for Argentina’s economy in 2018 remains optimistic, with GDP expected to expand by nearly 3% for the second consecutive year. However, achieving sustained growth and attracting international investment will depend, not just on stable macro indicators, but on long-lasting structural reforms. While the initial signs of economic recovery became apparent in the second half of 2016, it wasn’t until mid-2017 that growth rates began to pick up across most industries.
12 Dec 2017
María José Roa, a researcher at the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies (CEMLA), recently presented the results of her study, “The importance of financial capabilities: an empirical analysis in the Andean region,” which was carried out with the collaboration of CAF (the Development Bank of Latin America).
11 Dec 2017
The oldest private domestic bank in Argentina and one of the leaders in Latin America, BBVA Francés on October 14 marked its 130th year in operation and its 21st year as part of the BBVA Group. In the course of its history, BBVA Francés has gone from being a 20th century “temple of money,” to a powerhouse of digital banking in the Argentina of the 21st century.
21 Nov 2017
Big Data Spain brought together more than 1,200 specialists in data analysis and science in Madrid for two days, during which it was made clear how this technology can bring a new dimension to any area: from marketing to user experience to economic and geopolitical analysis.
20 Nov 2017
The refugee crisis, political events and the social reaction to them, natural disasters such as Hurricane Harvey or Hurricane Irma, the sentiments of people or central banks… there is an ever-increasing number of events whose economic impact, in a world of growing risk and uncertainty, is hard to gauge using traditional methods. That’s where ‘Big Data’ and ‘Data Science’ techniques come in, helping to quantify these trends from micro to macro level.
19 Oct 2017
BBVA Research has upgraded its Latin America 2017 growth forecast by 30 basic points, citing improvement in domestic demand in Mexico and Peru. The BBVA Group study service expects the region to grow 1.1% in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018.
26 Sep 2017
BBVA Research USA economists revised upward their estimate of the economic impact of Harvey, putting it at up to $111 billion, which would make it the second most costly natural disaster in recent U.S. history after Hurricane Katrina.
22 Sep 2017
When you have a storm as destructive as Hurricane Harvey hit one of the most important state economies in one of the world’s most powerful economies, the question is natural: How might the effects ripple in unexpected ways? We talked to the economists at BBVA Research USA to help offer perspective.
20 Jul 2017
The Pacific Alliance, made up of Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru, is a regional economic and comercial powerhouse. This area grows more than the average in Latin America. BBVA Research expects GDP growth of 1.6% and 2.3% in 2017 and 2018, respectively. “The Pacific Alliance is a success story in integration. And not by chance. It shares an ambition and a set of values behind this policy, on how prosperity should be reached,” said Jose Manuel González-Páramo, executive director of BBVA in Santander.
Argentina and Brazil are finally pulling out of recession and driving the economic growth in Latin America as a whole this year, despite the slowdown in other countries in the region. According to BBVA Resarch’s ‘Latin America Economic Outlook’ Q3 report, the region will grow 0.8% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018.
10 Jul 2017
This is the message the G20 wanted to transmit at the end of the summit that took place last weekend in Hamburg, Germany. However, it does not seem that this actually reflects the tone among the heads of state. The main point of disagreement was around the U.S. position on climate change. They agreed on issues related to opening markets, international trade and the stability of the financial system.
23 May 2017
Latin America is not very keen on, or good at saving, says a new publication by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). The solution would be to promote financial education and build a culture based on improving saving habits among Latin Americans.
18 May 2017
April 2017 Update. Tensions continued between North Korea and US over the nuclear test programme and the US increased its missile defence system in the area. The Chinese will continue to maintain the statuo quo while the tone of the US escalated but softened thereafter. In the Middle East, the advances of the coalition forces continue and the the ISIS situation deteriorates. The US decided to advance in Raqqa (the ISIS capital) supporting the YPG forces in the combats. Turkey has already protested the decision. Social unrest increased in some Latin American countries, while Asia remained calm. Uncertainties about the future of Europe decreased after Macron’s victory in French elections.
For more information, please visit BBVA Research’s website
21 Apr 2017
The economic slowdown in Latin America will come to an end this year, with a 1.1% growth rate in the region. Forecasts by BBVA Research estimate that in 2018, the region´s economy will continue to recover, with GDP expanding at the rate of 1.8%. This is still well below its potential, which is estimated at close to 3%.
11 Apr 2017
After the chemical weapons attack on Syrian civilian population, the US launched its first military strike against the Assad regime sending a clearer message to Syria and North Korea. However, it is still early to know whether this is a tactical message or part of a broader strategy. Europe and Asia kept with low conflict levels, while in North Africa, instability rose.
For more information, please visit BBVA Research’s website
29 Mar 2017
After the positive surprise of growth in Q3 2016 (+2% y-o-y) and the developments that took place in the final months of the year, we expect GDP for 2016, which will be disclosed in May, to close at about 1.2%, finally pulling out of the stagnation of recent years, and leaving a positive momentum for 2017.
03 Mar 2017
02 Mar 2017
In a meeting organized by the Rafael del Pino Foundation to discuss the future of Europe, José Manuel González-Páramo said that the “European Union is more necessary today than ever” to rise up to find a solution to the Old Continent’s most pressing issues. According to BBVA’s Executive Board Director, the EU now faces the challenge, but also the opportunity, to plot its future without the UK, one of its traditional and more important, partners.
On the financial plane, BBVA’s Executive Board Director highlighted the EU’s achievements in its path towards building a banking union. However, he warned about the need to keep moving ahead with the reforms and completing the following stage in the process: the rollout of the EDIS, the European Deposit Insurance Scheme.
16 Feb 2017
South America’s GDP will recover in 2017 after four years of economic slowdown, while Mexico will bear the impact of the uncertainty surrounding US policies, which is likely to hinder its growth prospects. These are the key conclusions of BBVA Research’s Latin America Outlook Q1 2017 report.
07 Feb 2017
The usual “known unknowns” continue to be alive and new ones could join this year. In the short term, the anti ISIS offensive continues and still far from being solved. Meanwhile the long lasting conflict between Russia and Ukraine looks to escalate. North Africa and the Middle East will continue to be the main hot spots in 2017, but higher political and geopolitical uncertainties could arise all over the world. The rise of populism and constrains to the flows of people (anti-immigration) and trade (protectionism) will challenge the international rules and globalisation. The new agenda by the US administration and the response of China, Russia and the Middle East, as well as uncertainties in Europe (elections and the Brexit) will continue to shape the dynamics of the geopolitics of the coming years.
For more information, please visit BBVA Research’s website
30 Jan 2017
17 Jan 2017
46 years ago, in 1971, a group of business leaders reunited under the patronage of the European Comission and some industrial associations. The economist Klaus Schwab chaired the first meeting, with 440 attendants from more than 30 countries in Davos, Switzerland. In this reunion, the European Economic Forum was founded as a non-profit organization with its headquarters in Geneva.
Ever since then, thousands of political and business leaders, artists and enterpreneurs have met in the anual Davos-Kloster meeting. The following 15 milestones are only some of the main events that have marked the history of the World Economic Forum.
12 Jan 2017
Lucía Ocón, CFA of BBVA’s Investor Relations team, explains in El Catalejo how, in her work, transparency is key to building credibility and trust among current shareholders and conveying BBVA’s appeal as investment prospect among potential investors. For this purpose, she notes that it is essential to nurture fluid relationships with investors through meetings, roadshows and conferences.
09 Jan 2017
In its December 2016 Banking Outlook report, BBVA Research reviews the most relevant trends and developments in the banking sector. The report analyzes the current status of Spanish banks and also examines the changing regulatory context in the European financial sector.
22 Dec 2016
The 2017 business year will mark a turning point for Latin American economies, with an estimate growth of 1.3% for the region as a whole, compared to a 1.3% dip in 2016. This is what emerges from BBVA Research’s 4th Quarter Latin America Outlook report. The recovery, however, will be gradual and the region will remain well below potential growth, about 3%.
29 Nov 2016
Reflecting on BBVA’s long and successful history in Paraguay, Agustín Antón highlights some of Paraguay’s most favorable characteristics, a “country that, grossly overlooked as it may be, is blessed with a number of strengths which translate into great opportunities”, as the basis to continue improving as a universal bank in all its aspects.
28 Nov 2016
This year we are celebrating the 55th anniversary of BBVA in Paraguay, a source of great price for the entire BBVA Group and a demonstration of our commitment to the country.
24 Nov 2016
In 2017, Latin America will manage to grow again, at a rate of about 1.5%, after five years of economic slowdown, said this Thursday BBVA’s Executive Board Director speaking at the Latibex Forum. During his address in the opening day of the annual event, José Manuel González-Páramo noted that “Latin America is at a turning point”.
22 Sep 2016
BBVA now has 16 million digital customers, up 21% from the first half of last year, and 10.2 million mobile customers, up 45% year-on-year. The bank is also developing a wide range of products and services, including digitized traditional products like mortgages, insurance and loans, as well as native products like Wallet, Link and Wibe.
14 Sep 2016
The auto industry is one of the industries with the greatest growth in the Mexican economy because everything from autoparts production to car assembly and its connection to the international market have performed well.
In previous years, we observed growth in this industry and estimated that vehicle production would increase 1,5% in 2016 compared to the previous year, despite a tough start to the year with 3,1% declines in the first half of the year. This represents an increase of approximately 51.000 units. Next year, production could increase to just over 4 million units, which would mean a 17,4% jump in 2017. This would once again put the industry at the forefront of the Mexican economy.
13 Sep 2016
Mexico’s banking market is in the middle of an expansionary period due to demographic factors and the macroeconomic stability that has been attained over recent years. This has produced a growing demand for credit in several different sectors, permitting a positive financing outlook that could reach the equivalent of 40% of Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the coming years.
12 Sep 2016
Mexico is celebrating its national holiday this Thursday. An important day, and we want to humbly join in the celebrations by offering a special selection of content focusing on Mexico and BBVA Bancomer on our website, bbva.com.
11 Aug 2016
Juan Ruiz, BBVA Research Chief Economist for Latin America, said that this will be the last year of Latin American’s recent economic slowdown. Despite Brexit and subsequent market volatility, the inflow of capital continued across the region.
05 Aug 2016
According to BBVA Research’s latest report, Latin America’s slowdown process, which started in 2012, will bottom out this year, with a decline in activity of -0.9%, before giving way to positive GDP growth rates in 2017 of 1.8%. This increase in activity will be driven by growth in both public and private investment, especially in Argentina, Peru and Colombia, as well as stronger activity in the foreign sector, which will benefit from recent sharp currency depreciations and the gradual recovery in commodity prices.
02 Aug 2016
The recent report, The Business of Financial Inclusion: Insights from Banks in Emerging Markets represents a new endeavor for the Institute of International Finance (IIF). It is based on the insights of 24 executives in charge of financial inclusion, a topic of growing interest.
22 Jul 2016
After a turbulent end of 2015 for Latin American emerging markets, fuelled by the collapse of commodity prices, the first half of 2016 has been quite different. Since January, investment funds operating in Latin America have reported solid profitability ratios, in many cases above 10%.
13 Jul 2016
Since it was formally established in 2012, the Pacific Alliance (PA) has become a global power. With 220 million people, it is the eighth largest economy in the world in terms of GDP and the eighth largest exporter.
12 Jul 2016
Over the past three decades, an economic model has gained a foothold in Chile that has proven successful at a number of levels, such as enabling high GDP growth rates (yearly average of 5.3%), helping the country to significantly bridge the income gap with developed countries such as the U.S. and Germany and improving in the living standards of the population.
29 Jun 2016
June 23rd was a historic day for Great Britain and Europe as a whole. No large country has ever before decided to leave the European Union. It remains to be seen what the consequences will be for the local and global economy, labour market, and UK trade position. What we do know is that Brexit victory is having an immediate effect on the British Pound and equity markets, sterling is plummeting and traders around the world are trying to make the best of it.
08 Jun 2016
There is no question that Latin American countries are highly diverse. It is precisely now, in the absence of tailwinds and with very similar external shocks, when we see the difference in the credibility and strength of the macroeconomic political frameworks in the different countries, and their differing capacities to absorb these shocks without unduly affecting their growth.
07 Jun 2016
Between 2002 and 2013, the Peruvian economy underwent a stage of fast and strong growth. During this period, the average annual growth rate was 6.1%. As a result, in a relatively short period of time, the per capita purchasing power of Peruvians nearly doubled and poverty declined by approximately 30 percentage points.