12 May 2021
Consensus Economics, one of the world´s most recognized analysis firms, has awarded Garanti BBVA the Forecast Accuracy Award for work by its economic analysis department.
18 Jan 2021
This year, the Davos Forum will be celebrating its most special and challenging edition, in the midst of the ongoing COVID pandemic. For this reason, the 51st edition of the World Economic Forum (World Economic Forum, WEF) will be held in two phases: An virtual one in January and another one, face-to-face, in August. The summit will convene politicians, businessmen and representatives of social and cultural organizations at a crucial time for the world, under the tagline ‘The Great Reset‘.
20 Mar 2020
The spread of coronavirus to several countries has led to a very charged reaction in the markets. The World Health Organization’s declaration of a global COVID-19 pandemic led to a number of immediate actions from the central banks and, concretely, the European Central Bank (ECB), as well as governments and other authorities in Europe. In a note, BBVA Research indicates that “the adoption of these measures is positive.” However, it feels that the monetary policy measures should be accompanied by a coordinated fiscal response from the European Union, which has already begun to materialize in Europe with similar stimulus plans between different countries.
19 Feb 2020
The BBVA Research team has published its Economic Outlook for first quarter 2020, offering a look at a number of timely events and their anticipated economic impact.
06 Dec 2019
29 Nov 2019
BBVA’s Executive Board Member, José Manuel González-Páramo, discussed the current status and outlook for the global economy at the 24th S’Agaró Economic Symposium. His main message was that: “The deceleration of the global economy seems to be stabilizing”, with growth close to its potential. He therefore ruled out the “risk of recession”, which “is not the base scenario in the short-term.”
01 Oct 2019
In recent months the world has witnessed an escalation of the U.S. – China trade war, with announcements of more restrictive and retaliatory measures. According to José Manuel González-Páramo, Executive Director and Global Head of Economics and Institutional Relations at BBVA, given this climate of global uncertainty, it is essential to build new bridges and establish areas for cooperation.
20 Aug 2019
Salvador Bekiaropoulos Donate
BBVA Regulation and Internal Control Area
03 Jul 2019
According to the latest Economic Outlook published this week by BBVA Research, GDP growth has decelerated in 2Q2019, but a rebound in consumption should support moderate growth rates in 2H2019. Survey-based investment indicators are also declining amidst deteriorating business expectations. In addition, countervailing trade dynamics — weaker global growth versus reduced trade tensions — imply there will be no material change in the net export balance.
07 Jun 2019
The European Central Bank (ECB) announced at yesterday’s meeting its future guidance on rates, which will remain on hold at least until the first half of 2020. As noted by BBVA Research in its ECB Watch report, the ECB is open to adopting further measures if necessary. The ECB also announced the conditions of its TLTRO-III liquidity line.
08 Mar 2019
All eyes were on the possibility yesterday that the European Central Bank (ECB) could make changes in the forward guidance on rate and on a potential announcement of new liquidity measures. And Mario Draghi didn’t disappoint: he answered both questions. He announced that the ECB will keep interest rates on hold until at least the end of this year and another series of auctions of long-term liquidity. BBVA Research has just released an ECB Watch report covering and assessing the measures announced by Draghi.
06 Feb 2019
BBVA Research maintains its forecasts of 2.4% growth in Spain in 2019 and 2% in 2020, according to the latest report, Spain Economic Outlook. The report was presented today by BBVA Research Director and BBVA Group Chief Economist Jorge Sicilia, and Rafael Doménech, the Head of Economic Analysis at BBVA Research. BBVA Research indicates that the recovery will continue, although the trend toward moderated growth is expected to consolidate over the coming quarters. Should this forecast be confirmed, the economy could add around 800,000 jobs over the next two years. This would represent a decrease in the job creation rate, but lower unemployment to 12.6% in 2020.
11 Jan 2019
The slowdown taking place in some economies, protectionism, uncertainty over economic policy, an abrupt adjustment in China and rising debt are some of the issues that threaten to provoke another global economic crisis, one that would impact some regions more than others. “The general perception is that we are now past the peak in the cycle of growth of recent years,” says Rafael Doménech, the Head of Economic Analysis at BBVA Research.
13 Dec 2018
The world has recently taken a turn toward trade protectionism. Given this situation, at a forum in Madrid, BBVA Executive Board Member José Manuel González-Páramo proposed committing to multilateralism through the World Trade Organization. He expects “Europe to play a relevant role” in this movement. These efforts are essential, he maintained, because protectionism threatens global growth.
16 Oct 2018
BBVA Research lowered growth expectations for Spain’s GDP to 2.6 percent in 2018 and 2.4 percent in 2019 (representing a drop of 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, from the forecast of three months ago). The downward revision is primarily due to a more modest performance in the first half of the year. Lower growth of both exports and private consumption are two important factors contributing to the revised projections. This was the view detailed in the most recent report on the Spanish Economic Outlook, presented today by Jorge Sicilia, chief economist at BBVA Group and director of BBVA Research; Rafael Doménech, head of Macroeconomic analysis at BBVA Research; and Miguel Cardoso, BBVA Research’s chief economist for Spain and Portugal.
06 Aug 2018
The European Central Bank in 2018 began the turnover process in a number of key posts on its Executive Board. The crux will be the end of Mario Draghi’s term in office in October 2019 amid doubts about whether his departure will coincide with a hike in interest rates expected between the summer and the fall of next year.
27 Jul 2018
The European Central Bank on Thursday announced it is maintaining its monetary policy unchanged. Interest rates will remain at current levels until the summer of 2019 or “as long as necessary”, as announced in its June meeting. In doing so, ECB President Mario Draghi gave no further clarification on the next steps in the bank’s roadmap and intoned the mantra of prudence and patience.
06 Jul 2018
The European Council meeting held on June 28 and 29 took some steps toward euro reform; conclusion of agreements will likely occur at the next meeting in December. Although it was hoped that the summit would address key questions like the budget proposed by Germany and France, ultimately the European partners chose to adopt a minimum agreement. The agreement includes measures such as support for a banking resolution fund, but the reform of the euro was deferred.
03 Jul 2018
After the bare minimum agreement on the banking union achieved at the recently held European Council, the debate about the future of Europe continues unabated. With this agreement still fresh, the Bank of Finland invited scholars, representatives of the financial sector and regulators talk about the future of the Old Continent. The experts gathered in Helsinki called for advancing towards a greater banking and capital markets union. The next date in the calendar: The European Council meeting in December.
At its meeting on June 14, the European Central Bank (ECB) set an expiry date for the asset purchase program: December of this year. The program, which started in March 2015, is now approaching its end. It forms part of the non-standard measures that Mario Draghi’s institution implemented during the toughest years of the economic crisis. What do they consist of?
28 Jun 2018
The Council of Europe will hold its June summit at a complex time with significant challenges on economic, political, and social issues. As BBVA Research points out, it also represents an opportunity to further strengthen the EU’s Economic and Monetary Union. As such, the reform of the euro will be one of the decisive elements, although also one of the most controversial.
19 Jun 2018
As the European Central Bank celebrates its 20th anniversary, we take a look back at some of its defining milestones. Not in vain, the ECB has been the guarantor of the euro’s survival and, since 2014, the central axis of the euro area’s financial system. Since the onset of the 2008 financial crisis, the ECB took on a role that was pivotal for a huge part of the recovery. However, “it cannot act alone”: “further strengthening of Europe´s institutional and legal framework is necessary to construct a more united and resilient Europe to face future challenges.”
13 Jun 2018
Every time Mario Draghi speaks at the news conference after the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monthly monetary policy meeting, the markets hold their breath. And after he finishes, they react. In the wake of the 2008 crisis, the expectations created by the bank’s message have taken on added relevance. BBVA Research is aware of the importance of being able to gauge if the ECB’s message adequately reflects its policy and has used big data techniques to this end.
04 Jun 2018
The European Commission has presented its proposal on developing a new class of low-risk assets in the form of sovereign bond-backed securities (SBBS). The new security, whose goal is to enhance diversification and reduce sovereign bond risk in the euro zone, was included in the European Commission’s roadmap. The plan unveiled in December 2017 aims to deepen European Economic and Monetary Union.
16 May 2018
Of the tax revenue paid by Europeans, only one euro per taxpayer is used to finance the EU’s budget. In total, the EU manages a budget of about 1% of the gross national income of its member states. Nonetheless, how this money is invested directly impacts Europeans’ lives; it is therefore of interest to understand the EU budget as of 2021, the first spending plan after the UK’s exit from the EU.
27 Apr 2018
As expected, the European Central Bank left interest rates and its asset-purchasing program, or quantitative easing (QE), unchanged. After its policy meeting, Mario Draghi instead stressed concerns about the global risks posed by protectionism as well as the need to focus on inflation.
20 Apr 2018
The Eurosystem is the monetary authority of the euro area. It comprises the European Central Bank (ECB) and the national central banks of the Member States whose currency is the euro. Its primary objective is the maintenance of price stability, and specifically, keeping inflation in the euro area (calculated based on internal stats of the ECB) “close to but under 2 per cent.”
18 Apr 2018
The creation of a Single European Market without borders or customs duties is considered one of the greatest achievements of the European Union. The common market is now 25 years old and finds itself at a moment of crucial change in which digital disruption requires new products and services to be regulated.
12 Apr 2018
Fears of a trade war between the U.S. and China are escalating by the day. Trump announced extra duties on 10% of Chinese imports and the two world powers have entered into a “tit-for-tat” trade retaliation that has unnerved investors and shaken financial markets. Nevertheless, the likelihood that these skirmishes will turn into a full-blown trade war are still low, as explained in a BBVA Research report.
10 Apr 2018
Although the uncertainty surrounding Catalonia’s economic policy hasn’t had the expected negative impact, the favorable global environment seems to have offset the its negative effect on production and employment. Consequently, BBVA Research has upgraded its 2018 and 2019 GDP growth forecasts for Spain to 2.9% and 2.5% from 2.5% and 2.3% respectively. The report was presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of BBVA Group and Head of BBVA Research, Rafael Doménech, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis of BBVA Research and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist Spain and Portugal. Under this scenario, the country is expected to generate about 940,000 jobs over the two year period, causing the country’s unemployment rate to drop below 14%.