20 Mar 2020
The spread of coronavirus to several countries has led to a very charged reaction in the markets. The World Health Organization’s declaration of a global COVID-19 pandemic led to a number of immediate actions from the central banks and, concretely, the European Central Bank (ECB), as well as governments and other authorities in Europe. In a note, BBVA Research indicates that “the adoption of these measures is positive.” However, it feels that the monetary policy measures should be accompanied by a coordinated fiscal response from the European Union, which has already begun to materialize in Europe with similar stimulus plans between different countries.
06 Mar 2020
Santiago Fernández de Lis
Head of Regulation
24 Dec 2019
Last summer, European institutions greenlighted the latest major banking reform package (CRR2 or, as it was also known, the risk reduction package, or banking package). The announcement was well received in the market, as a clear indication that, after almost 10 years of regulatory reform, the definitive framework for credit institutions was finally starting to take shape.
04 Oct 2019
26 Jul 2019
The European Central Bank’s statement and press conference, following the monetary policy meeting held on Thursday, July 25, was one of those examples of pre-announcement of upcoming measures. “It seems quite clear now that a depo cut will be decided soon (we expect it for September now),” says BBVA Research in its latest ECB Watch report.
21 Jun 2019
Continuous innovation and the gradual decline of the use of cash are giving way to a new digital monetary system. According to José Manuel González-Páramo, executive director and head of global economics and public affairs at BBVA, central banks must define the new role they will play coming out of this transformation.
07 Jun 2019
The European Central Bank (ECB) announced at yesterday’s meeting its future guidance on rates, which will remain on hold at least until the first half of 2020. As noted by BBVA Research in its ECB Watch report, the ECB is open to adopting further measures if necessary. The ECB also announced the conditions of its TLTRO-III liquidity line.
01 Apr 2019
Mario Draghi reiterated this week that the ECB could tentatively delay the planned rate hike until next year. At a conference in Frankfurt, Draghi responded to banks’ concerns by saying negative rates could impact bank profitability, although it “is not an inevitable consequence.” Given these statements, we asked Olga Gouveia, Lead Economist for Financial Systems at BBVA Research, what is the impact of the decision to keep negative interest rates. In her opinion, it is reasonable the precautionary tone of the ECB, provided that there is a planned hike on the horizon.
08 Mar 2019
All eyes were on the possibility yesterday that the European Central Bank (ECB) could make changes in the forward guidance on rate and on a potential announcement of new liquidity measures. And Mario Draghi didn’t disappoint: he answered both questions. He announced that the ECB will keep interest rates on hold until at least the end of this year and another series of auctions of long-term liquidity. BBVA Research has just released an ECB Watch report covering and assessing the measures announced by Draghi.
28 Feb 2019
The Eurozone finance ministers recently approved the appointment of Ireland’s Central Bank Governor, Philip Lane, as the next chief economist at the European Central Bank (ECB). Alongside the central bank’s president and the members of the Executive Board, which will also see new appointments this year, the chief economist plays a key role on the institution’s Governing Council. According to BBVA Research, this year’s scheduled turnover at the bank, may result in changes to the ECB’s current stance on monetary policy.
08 Oct 2018
José Manuel González-Páramo called for Europe to move forward now, not “just when there’s a crisis”, and to conclude the banking union, the capital markets union and the fiscal union to have a “much more robust and genuine euro.” Speaking at the Círculo de Economía in Barcelona, he stressed the role that the ECB played in Europe’s recovery. However, the bank must now go back to its original purpose of “contributing to financial stability and separating supervision from monetary policy.”
18 Sep 2018
The expiration of ECB Vice-President Vítor Constancio’s term in June and the subsequent appointment of Luis de Guindos as his successor marked the beginning of the European Central Bank’s senior management renewal. But, how are ECB executive board members appointed?
17 Sep 2018
As widely expected, the ECB concluded its monetary policy meeting yesterday without making any changes to its monetary policy stance. As BBVA Research’s ECB Watch report notes, there were other key takeaways that came out of the meeting, such as the end of the Asset Purchase Programming, and the confirmation that the bank is in no rush to hike interest rates. From an economic standpoint, the institution affirmed its inflation outlook but slightly lowered its growth expectations for the euro zone.
13 Sep 2018
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CRBT) decided today to raise the official interest rate by 625 basis points from 17.75 percent to 24 percent. As a BBVA Research report points out, the hike came in above market expectations (21 percent according to Bloomberg consensus estimates), and BBVA Research’s own forecast (22.75 percent). BBVA Research welcomes the move and believes it should be backed up by a medium-term coherent and detailed fiscal plan.
10 Aug 2018
BBVA has requested arbitration procedures through the complementary mechanism of the ICSID – the International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes – within the framework of the Reciprocal Investment Promotion and Protection Agreements between Spain and Bolivia with respect to the transfer of BBVA Previsión AFP (Pension Fund Administrator) to the Government of Bolivia.
06 Aug 2018
The European Central Bank in 2018 began the turnover process in a number of key posts on its Executive Board. The crux will be the end of Mario Draghi’s term in office in October 2019 amid doubts about whether his departure will coincide with a hike in interest rates expected between the summer and the fall of next year.
27 Jul 2018
The European Central Bank on Thursday announced it is maintaining its monetary policy unchanged. Interest rates will remain at current levels until the summer of 2019 or “as long as necessary”, as announced in its June meeting. In doing so, ECB President Mario Draghi gave no further clarification on the next steps in the bank’s roadmap and intoned the mantra of prudence and patience.
25 Jul 2018
Answering this question is not easy. Academics and financial industry representatives met to discuss whether it would be appropriate for central banks to issue digital currencies. In the forum, BBVA executive board member, José Manuel González-Páramo, indicated that he believes it is probable that central banks will issue cryptocurrencies in the years ahead. Future advances in blockchain technology will open the way to its use by financial authorities.
12 Jul 2018
In 2015, the ECB launched its Bank’s Integrated Reporting Dictionary, or BIRD, a project ultimately intended to organize the data that it gathers from EU financial institutions for its statistical area. This project is part of a broader strategic approach aimed at improving the system that banks and other players use to report statistics to the European supervisor, known as IReF (Integrated Reporting Framework). BIRD is one of the pivotal milestones in the list of achievements by the Statistical area of the ECB. And just as the rest of the organization, BIRD is celebrating its anniversary.
03 Jul 2018
After the bare minimum agreement on the banking union achieved at the recently held European Council, the debate about the future of Europe continues unabated. With this agreement still fresh, the Bank of Finland invited scholars, representatives of the financial sector and regulators talk about the future of the Old Continent. The experts gathered in Helsinki called for advancing towards a greater banking and capital markets union. The next date in the calendar: The European Council meeting in December.
At its meeting on June 14, the European Central Bank (ECB) set an expiry date for the asset purchase program: December of this year. The program, which started in March 2015, is now approaching its end. It forms part of the non-standard measures that Mario Draghi’s institution implemented during the toughest years of the economic crisis. What do they consist of?
25 Jun 2018
19 Jun 2018
As the European Central Bank celebrates its 20th anniversary, we take a look back at some of its defining milestones. Not in vain, the ECB has been the guarantor of the euro’s survival and, since 2014, the central axis of the euro area’s financial system. Since the onset of the 2008 financial crisis, the ECB took on a role that was pivotal for a huge part of the recovery. However, “it cannot act alone”: “further strengthening of Europe´s institutional and legal framework is necessary to construct a more united and resilient Europe to face future challenges.”
13 Jun 2018
Every time Mario Draghi speaks at the news conference after the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monthly monetary policy meeting, the markets hold their breath. And after he finishes, they react. In the wake of the 2008 crisis, the expectations created by the bank’s message have taken on added relevance. BBVA Research is aware of the importance of being able to gauge if the ECB’s message adequately reflects its policy and has used big data techniques to this end.
27 Apr 2018
As expected, the European Central Bank left interest rates and its asset-purchasing program, or quantitative easing (QE), unchanged. After its policy meeting, Mario Draghi instead stressed concerns about the global risks posed by protectionism as well as the need to focus on inflation.
06 Apr 2018
BBVA backed Garanti Bank, in cooperation with Turkish Central Bank and TUBITAK, the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey, has sponsored the first Blockchain Workshop in Turkey.
22 Mar 2018
As we expected, the FOMC increased the Fed funds rate to 1.5%-1.75%, confirming that newly appointed Chairman is committed to maintaining continuity with his predecessor. The language in the statement underpinned the committee’s shift from a defensive to potentially offensive mindset, with strong labor market signals, increased business investment and firmer actual inflation readings.
09 Mar 2018
As expected the European Central Bank (ECB) yesterday took a further step toward the normalization of its monetary policy. That is BBVA Research’s reading of the situation in its ECB Watch report. The institution headed by Mario Draghi left interest rates unchanged and will continue with its asset-purchasing program, commonly known in English as quantitative easing (QE). The main development that emerged from the policy meeting was the dropping of the “explicit reference” to the possibility of increasing the size of the program. And that already represents a change.
21 Feb 2018
On January 31st, the European Banking Authority (EBA) announced the formal launch of this year’s EU-wide stress test exercise of the euro area. It also unveiled the macroeconomic scenarios under which the exercise will be carried out. The adverse scenario implies a deviation of EU GDP from its baseline level by 8.3% in 2020, resulting in the most severe scenario to date. The EBA expects to publish the results of the exercise by 2 November 2018
26 Jan 2018
As had been expected, following its monthly meeting the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged. At the same time, ECB President Mario Draghi introduced the exchange rate as an element of uncertainty, stressing that he will monitor the fluctuations in the euro and their possible consequences. Likewise, he reiterated the possibility of broadening the bond purchase program, continuing his accommodative policy, which will be accompanied by interest rates at minimum levels for a long period of time.
25 Jan 2018
Economic activity in Latin America has been invigorated in recent months, in line with the recovery of confidence among families and businesses and a more favorable external context. In its Latin America Economic Outlook for first quarter 2018, BBVA Research forecasts that the region’s growth will increase from 1.1% in 2017 to 1.7% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019.
16 Jan 2018
BBVA Research maintains its forecasts for Spain’s GDP growth in 2017 and 2018 at 3.1% and 2.5%, respectively. In addition, it expects that the economic recovery will continue in 2019 (with a 2.3% increase in GDP) and that the improvement in the economy will translate into wage growth. BBVA Research’s latest Spain Economic Outlook was presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of the BBVA Group and Director of BBVA Research; Rafael Doménech, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at BBVA Research; and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist for Spain and Portugal. If these forecasts prove to be correct, Spain´s unemployment rate could drop to 13.4% by end of 2019, which would imply the creation of 860,000 jobs over the next two years.
03 Jan 2018
In December, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) announced the finalization of the review process of the Basel III framework, which will allow banks to better withstand financial crises. The new standards, which will enter into force in January 2022, should help clarify and bring more stability to the global regulatory framework.
26 Dec 2017
The beginning of the normalization of monetary policy in 2018 should bring greater profitability for banks, a larger investor appetite and a positive outlook for the stock market. However, what is perhaps more important, the new policy will enable banks to meet one of their principal goals: supporting economic growth by financing companies and private individuals.
13 Dec 2017
Once again, the Argentine economy faces critical decisions to avoid a new downturn and take the path to more sustainable growth. Markets are keeping a close eye on the post-electoral roadmap outlined by the administration of President Mauricio Macri.
23 Nov 2017
The Financial Stability Board (FSB) has just published the list of Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) for 2017. The number of institutions remains the same, but with three significant changes. Systemic banks have a major impact on the economy, but what makes them different from the rest?
17 Nov 2017
The European Union’s banking and medicine agencies are moving. This is one of the direct consequences of the United Kingdom’s approaching departure from the European Union (Brexit). On Monday, November 20th, the 27 member states will vote on which European cities will be the new home of these two agencies.
13 Nov 2017
The European Commission (EC) and the European Banking Authority (EBA) have published their work plans for 2018. The documents describe the specific activities and tasks the organizations plan to carry out next year. Both proposals place increasing importance on the fintech sector, since it could bring about a radical change the financial industry.
10 Nov 2017
The use of cash as method of payment has been declining in recent years, in favor of digital methods and credit cards. Last month we saw another example in the Hawkers sunglass brand, which will not be accepting cash payments in its new Madrid store.
07 Nov 2017
The finance industry will survive the disruption in the sector, but only a few banks will be able to offer the best customer experience, adapt to the new ecosystem and successfully achieve their digital transformation. “Competition with the fintech companies makes us better and stronger,” said José Manuel González-Páramo, BBVA’s Executive Member of the Board, Head of Global Economics, Regulation and Public Affairs, during the European Central Bank´s Forum on Banking Supervision.
20 Oct 2017
BBVA Research has analyzed the potential regulatory scenarios that the financial industry will be facing in the next 5 to 10 years. In its Financial Regulation Outlook report, BBVA Research analysts address some of the questions being asked in Europe over the course and pace that regulators will choose in the medium and long term.
19 Oct 2017
BBVA Research has upgraded its Latin America 2017 growth forecast by 30 basic points, citing improvement in domestic demand in Mexico and Peru. The BBVA Group study service expects the region to grow 1.1% in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018.
16 Oct 2017
For the European Central Bank, the relevance that fintech already has in the financial sector is becoming increasingly clear. The latest example of this is the public consultation it has just launched to establish draft guides to bank licensing, not only for banks with traditional business models, but also for companies offering banking services based on innovative technologies, commonly known as fintech.
30 Aug 2017
On March 25, 1957, representatives from the six founding countries of the European Community put their signatures to the Treaties of Rome, consisting of blank pages due to a problem with the printing. Sixty years on, Europe “is an enormous success”, but today it also has “blank pages still to be filled in” for the project to continue with its process of completion. This was the metaphor used by Jose Manuel González-Páramo, the CEO of BBVA, to describe the current situation of the EU.
28 Aug 2017
Once more this year, the symposium of the most important central bankers in the world was held in Jackson Hole from August 24 to 26. Under scrutiny were Janet Yellen, the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve and Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank. Their words gave no indications of any changes with respect to the future of monetary policy.
21 Jul 2017
Mario Draghi did not surprise anyone yesterday. As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) unanimously decided to leave interest rates unchanged. He also did not announce any immediate changes to the asset purchase program. However, he did offer some clues as to the direction the ECB will follow after the summer. As BBVA Research notes in its ECB Watch report, the discussion on gradually tapering QE (Quantitative Easing, the ECB´s asset purchase program) will take place in the fall – most likely in September.
20 Jul 2017
Argentina and Brazil are finally pulling out of recession and driving the economic growth in Latin America as a whole this year, despite the slowdown in other countries in the region. According to BBVA Resarch’s ‘Latin America Economic Outlook’ Q3 report, the region will grow 0.8% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018.
18 Jul 2017
Ricardo Gómez Barredo was there for the birth of BBVA (through the merger of BBV and Argentaria), a Group he has been associated with for more than two decades.Now he is in charge of functions that are so critical to a bank like liaising with supervisors, working out financial information and reporting.Professionally, he describes himself as very demanding of himself. He thinks that the best part of his professional experience has always been “the people I’ve been lucky enough to work with”.
30 Jun 2017
The role the European Central Bank played during the crisis was fundamental to the European economy getting off the ground, according to José Manuel González-Páramo. He experienced part of this process firsthand as a member of the ECB Executive Board and Governing Council from 2004 to 2012. He is currently BBVA’s Executive Director.