12 Jul 2018
In 2015, the ECB launched its Bank’s Integrated Reporting Dictionary, or BIRD, a project ultimately intended to organize the data that it gathers from EU financial institutions for its statistical area. This project is part of a broader strategic approach aimed at improving the system that banks and other players use to report statistics to the European supervisor, known as IReF (Integrated Reporting Framework). BIRD is one of the pivotal milestones in the list of achievements by the Statistical area of the ECB. And just as the rest of the organization, BIRD is celebrating its anniversary.
03 Jul 2018
After the bare minimum agreement on the banking union achieved at the recently held European Council, the debate about the future of Europe continues unabated. With this agreement still fresh, the Bank of Finland invited scholars, representatives of the financial sector and regulators talk about the future of the Old Continent. The experts gathered in Helsinki called for advancing towards a greater banking and capital markets union. The next date in the calendar: The European Council meeting in December.
At its meeting on June 14, the European Central Bank (ECB) set an expiry date for the asset purchase program: December of this year. The program, which started in March 2015, is now approaching its end. It forms part of the non-standard measures that Mario Draghi’s institution implemented during the toughest years of the economic crisis. What do they consist of?
25 Jun 2018
19 Jun 2018
As the European Central Bank celebrates its 20th anniversary, we take a look back at some of its defining milestones. Not in vain, the ECB has been the guarantor of the euro’s survival and, since 2014, the central axis of the euro area’s financial system. Since the onset of the 2008 financial crisis, the ECB took on a role that was pivotal for a huge part of the recovery. However, “it cannot act alone”: “further strengthening of Europe´s institutional and legal framework is necessary to construct a more united and resilient Europe to face future challenges.”
13 Jun 2018
Every time Mario Draghi speaks at the news conference after the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monthly monetary policy meeting, the markets hold their breath. And after he finishes, they react. In the wake of the 2008 crisis, the expectations created by the bank’s message have taken on added relevance. BBVA Research is aware of the importance of being able to gauge if the ECB’s message adequately reflects its policy and has used big data techniques to this end.
27 Apr 2018
As expected, the European Central Bank left interest rates and its asset-purchasing program, or quantitative easing (QE), unchanged. After its policy meeting, Mario Draghi instead stressed concerns about the global risks posed by protectionism as well as the need to focus on inflation.
06 Apr 2018
BBVA backed Garanti Bank, in cooperation with Turkish Central Bank and TUBITAK, the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey, has sponsored the first Blockchain Workshop in Turkey.
22 Mar 2018
As we expected, the FOMC increased the Fed funds rate to 1.5%-1.75%, confirming that newly appointed Chairman is committed to maintaining continuity with his predecessor. The language in the statement underpinned the committee’s shift from a defensive to potentially offensive mindset, with strong labor market signals, increased business investment and firmer actual inflation readings.
09 Mar 2018
As expected the European Central Bank (ECB) yesterday took a further step toward the normalization of its monetary policy. That is BBVA Research’s reading of the situation in its ECB Watch report. The institution headed by Mario Draghi left interest rates unchanged and will continue with its asset-purchasing program, commonly known in English as quantitative easing (QE). The main development that emerged from the policy meeting was the dropping of the “explicit reference” to the possibility of increasing the size of the program. And that already represents a change.
21 Feb 2018
On January 31st, the European Banking Authority (EBA) announced the formal launch of this year’s EU-wide stress test exercise of the euro area. It also unveiled the macroeconomic scenarios under which the exercise will be carried out. The adverse scenario implies a deviation of EU GDP from its baseline level by 8.3% in 2020, resulting in the most severe scenario to date. The EBA expects to publish the results of the exercise by 2 November 2018
26 Jan 2018
As had been expected, following its monthly meeting the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged. At the same time, ECB President Mario Draghi introduced the exchange rate as an element of uncertainty, stressing that he will monitor the fluctuations in the euro and their possible consequences. Likewise, he reiterated the possibility of broadening the bond purchase program, continuing his accommodative policy, which will be accompanied by interest rates at minimum levels for a long period of time.
25 Jan 2018
Economic activity in Latin America has been invigorated in recent months, in line with the recovery of confidence among families and businesses and a more favorable external context. In its Latin America Economic Outlook for first quarter 2018, BBVA Research forecasts that the region’s growth will increase from 1.1% in 2017 to 1.7% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019.
16 Jan 2018
BBVA Research maintains its forecasts for Spain’s GDP growth in 2017 and 2018 at 3.1% and 2.5%, respectively. In addition, it expects that the economic recovery will continue in 2019 (with a 2.3% increase in GDP) and that the improvement in the economy will translate into wage growth. BBVA Research’s latest Spain Economic Outlook was presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of the BBVA Group and Director of BBVA Research; Rafael Doménech, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at BBVA Research; and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist for Spain and Portugal. If these forecasts prove to be correct, Spain´s unemployment rate could drop to 13.4% by end of 2019, which would imply the creation of 860,000 jobs over the next two years.
03 Jan 2018
In December, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) announced the finalization of the review process of the Basel III framework, which will allow banks to better withstand financial crises. The new standards, which will enter into force in January 2022, should help clarify and bring more stability to the global regulatory framework.
26 Dec 2017
The beginning of the normalization of monetary policy in 2018 should bring greater profitability for banks, a larger investor appetite and a positive outlook for the stock market. However, what is perhaps more important, the new policy will enable banks to meet one of their principal goals: supporting economic growth by financing companies and private individuals.
13 Dec 2017
Once again, the Argentine economy faces critical decisions to avoid a new downturn and take the path to more sustainable growth. Markets are keeping a close eye on the post-electoral roadmap outlined by the administration of President Mauricio Macri.
23 Nov 2017
The Financial Stability Board (FSB) has just published the list of Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) for 2017. The number of institutions remains the same, but with three significant changes. Systemic banks have a major impact on the economy, but what makes them different from the rest?
17 Nov 2017
The European Union’s banking and medicine agencies are moving. This is one of the direct consequences of the United Kingdom’s approaching departure from the European Union (Brexit). On Monday, November 20th, the 27 member states will vote on which European cities will be the new home of these two agencies.
13 Nov 2017
The European Commission (EC) and the European Banking Authority (EBA) have published their work plans for 2018. The documents describe the specific activities and tasks the organizations plan to carry out next year. Both proposals place increasing importance on the fintech sector, since it could bring about a radical change the financial industry.
10 Nov 2017
The use of cash as method of payment has been declining in recent years, in favor of digital methods and credit cards. Last month we saw another example in the Hawkers sunglass brand, which will not be accepting cash payments in its new Madrid store.
07 Nov 2017
The finance industry will survive the disruption in the sector, but only a few banks will be able to offer the best customer experience, adapt to the new ecosystem and successfully achieve their digital transformation. “Competition with the fintech companies makes us better and stronger,” said José Manuel González-Páramo, BBVA’s Executive Member of the Board, Head of Global Economics, Regulation and Public Affairs, during the European Central Bank´s Forum on Banking Supervision.
20 Oct 2017
BBVA Research has analyzed the potential regulatory scenarios that the financial industry will be facing in the next 5 to 10 years. In its Financial Regulation Outlook report, BBVA Research analysts address some of the questions being asked in Europe over the course and pace that regulators will choose in the medium and long term.
19 Oct 2017
BBVA Research has upgraded its Latin America 2017 growth forecast by 30 basic points, citing improvement in domestic demand in Mexico and Peru. The BBVA Group study service expects the region to grow 1.1% in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018.
16 Oct 2017
For the European Central Bank, the relevance that fintech already has in the financial sector is becoming increasingly clear. The latest example of this is the public consultation it has just launched to establish draft guides to bank licensing, not only for banks with traditional business models, but also for companies offering banking services based on innovative technologies, commonly known as fintech.
30 Aug 2017
On March 25, 1957, representatives from the six founding countries of the European Community put their signatures to the Treaties of Rome, consisting of blank pages due to a problem with the printing. Sixty years on, Europe “is an enormous success”, but today it also has “blank pages still to be filled in” for the project to continue with its process of completion. This was the metaphor used by Jose Manuel González-Páramo, the CEO of BBVA, to describe the current situation of the EU.
28 Aug 2017
Once more this year, the symposium of the most important central bankers in the world was held in Jackson Hole from August 24 to 26. Under scrutiny were Janet Yellen, the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve and Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank. Their words gave no indications of any changes with respect to the future of monetary policy.
21 Jul 2017
Mario Draghi did not surprise anyone yesterday. As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) unanimously decided to leave interest rates unchanged. He also did not announce any immediate changes to the asset purchase program. However, he did offer some clues as to the direction the ECB will follow after the summer. As BBVA Research notes in its ECB Watch report, the discussion on gradually tapering QE (Quantitative Easing, the ECB´s asset purchase program) will take place in the fall – most likely in September.
20 Jul 2017
Argentina and Brazil are finally pulling out of recession and driving the economic growth in Latin America as a whole this year, despite the slowdown in other countries in the region. According to BBVA Resarch’s ‘Latin America Economic Outlook’ Q3 report, the region will grow 0.8% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018.
18 Jul 2017
Ricardo Gómez Barredo was there for the birth of BBVA (through the merger of BBV and Argentaria), a Group he has been associated with for more than two decades.Now he is in charge of functions that are so critical to a bank like liaising with supervisors, working out financial information and reporting.Professionally, he describes himself as very demanding of himself. He thinks that the best part of his professional experience has always been “the people I’ve been lucky enough to work with”.
30 Jun 2017
The role the European Central Bank played during the crisis was fundamental to the European economy getting off the ground, according to José Manuel González-Páramo. He experienced part of this process firsthand as a member of the ECB Executive Board and Governing Council from 2004 to 2012. He is currently BBVA’s Executive Director.
28 Jun 2017
09 Jun 2017
As the markets expected, at its June meeting the European Central Bank (ECB) closed the door on further interest-rate cuts and adopted a more neutral stance on risks, although maintaining caution. Despite the fact that the institution has not yet given signs of taking a step to exit the current monetary policy, the ECB Watch report published by BBVA Research suggests that in September it may announce a slowdown in asset purchases starting in 2018.
The International Bank Note Society (IBNS) has chosen the 50 Swiss Franc bank note as the winner of its “Bank Note of the Year Award” for 2016. The bank note, which depicts a hand holding a dandelion, was chosen after a tight voting process. The three runner ups were the Maldive Islands 1000 Rufiyaa, Argentina’s 500 Peso, and the Royal Bank of Scotland’s 5 Pound bank notes.
Together with these 4 finalists, the IBNS chooses what are considered to be, overall, the 18 best bank notes in the world in 2016.
We have already seen what the foreign exchange market is and how it works, as well as different exchange rate systems. Here, we will analyze the broad range of participants that engage in a market that, in average, churns around 5 trillion dollars on a daily basis.
26 May 2017
BBVA Executive Director José Manuel González-Páramo predicts that the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy will normalize next year. He estimates that the ECB will announce a slower pace for asset purchases in the fall. “I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we saw the first interest rate hike at the end of 2018,” he said, during the Círculo de Economía meeting in Sitges.
23 May 2017
BBVA is one of the 40 institutions that invested in the financial technology innovator R3, which just completed two of three tranches in its Series A fundraising round. It raised a total of 107 million. With this investment, BBVA seeks to reinforce its commitment to R3, the largest consortium of global financial institutions collaborating to develop an industry platform and commercial applications for DLT.
18 May 2017
The B20 -a forum made up by companies from G20 countries– plays a key role as a liaison between governments and the economy. It is “an essential link between the real economy and the authorities that have regulatory powers over that economy,” says José Manuel González-Páramo, Executive Board Director of BBVA. Companies also act as drivers of economic growth and inclusion. For this reason, the B20 “is crucial at this point in time.”
03 May 2017
BBVA held in March its 6th annual Public Sector Investors and Issuers Seminar bringing together 60 central banks, sovereign borrowers, supranational institutions, and national agencies for 3-days of discussions on a broad range of investment themes.
Some of the key themes discussed were the impact of unconventional monetary policies on public sector issuers and investors, the challenges facing reserve managers in times of negative interest rates, and the debt management strategies of public sector issuers. The following are four of the most interesting issued discussed.
04 Apr 2017
On April 4 the new €50 note will enter into circulation. This new note, presented on July 5, 2016 by the European Central Bank will be phased in gradually and will coexist with the preceding model, which will remain legal tender. Thus, the ECB completes another step in the rollout of the Europa series, and follows the €5, €10 and €20 notes, which have already been issued. Reinhold Gerstetter, independent banknote designer was selected to refresh the design of the notes.
24 Mar 2017
The ECB has published its annual report on the supervisory activities appointed to it by the Single Supervisory Mechanism. Key achievements in 2016: effectively addressing the non-performing loan (NPL) issue, the improvement the solvency of the euro area banking sector and the further harmonisation of banking supervision in the euro area. In the spotlight for 2017: new challenges, like the new scenario for European banks after Brexit and fintech-related risks.
The European Central Bank (ECB) yesterday has announced the outcome of the final auction of TLTRO-2 (targeted long-term refinancing operations). These long-term financing operations aim to stimulate lending in the euro zone. The demand for additional liquidity has reached 233.47 billion euros, far above the amount from previous auctions and market expectations.
21 Mar 2017
On Mar. 15, the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, announced it was raising its interim benchmark interest rate by a quarter point (commonly referred to as 25 basis points), helping to stabilize the economy and influence the amount of interest increase banks and other institutions could apply to overnight lending money.
14 Mar 2017
BBVA Compass economists lay out their reasons for raising their estimate to three rate hikes in 2017 in their latest Fed Watch report, pointing to the underlying strength of the economy and a series of hawkish speeches by key Federal Open Market Committee members.
10 Mar 2017
Mario Draghi did not announce any new changes in monetary policy at Thursday’s press conference, but the latest European Central Bank (ECB) meeting did lead to some updates. On the one hand, the ECB is more optimistic about economic growth. On the other, it is raising its 2017 inflation forecast to 1.7% (from 1.3% in December) due to growing energy prices, but it barely changed its core inflation projection. And last, but not least, it added some nuances to its wording, which could be the prelude to changes in its monetary policy, BBVA Research notes in its ECB Watch report.
02 Mar 2017
In a meeting organized by the Rafael del Pino Foundation to discuss the future of Europe, José Manuel González-Páramo said that the “European Union is more necessary today than ever” to rise up to find a solution to the Old Continent’s most pressing issues. According to BBVA’s Executive Board Director, the EU now faces the challenge, but also the opportunity, to plot its future without the UK, one of its traditional and more important, partners.
On the financial plane, BBVA’s Executive Board Director highlighted the EU’s achievements in its path towards building a banking union. However, he warned about the need to keep moving ahead with the reforms and completing the following stage in the process: the rollout of the EDIS, the European Deposit Insurance Scheme.
16 Feb 2017
South America’s GDP will recover in 2017 after four years of economic slowdown, while Mexico will bear the impact of the uncertainty surrounding US policies, which is likely to hinder its growth prospects. These are the key conclusions of BBVA Research’s Latin America Outlook Q1 2017 report.
30 Jan 2017
In Barcelona today, BBVA’s Executive Director José Manuel González-Páramo reflected on the factors that have influenced the current context of low, and even negative interest rates in developed economies. BBVA’s Executive Director shared his vision of what has led to this environment, the impact it is having on the markets and above all, where we are headed. In his opinion, low interest rates will remain for an extended period of time.
González-Páramo participated in the 25th anniversary of Inverco Catalunya where President Carlos Tusquets gave the opening speech. In his presentation titled, “Low interest rates: Where we are coming from, the impact and where we are going” BBVA’s Executive Director underscored that debate is currently focusing on estimating the amount of time low interest rates will remain, what will be the new equilibrium and what policies and strategies are appropriate for a change in trend.
20 Jan 2017
09 Jan 2017
In its December 2016 Banking Outlook report, BBVA Research reviews the most relevant trends and developments in the banking sector. The report analyzes the current status of Spanish banks and also examines the changing regulatory context in the European financial sector.