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Economic forecasting

12 May 2021

12 Nov 2020

16 Sep 2020

20 Aug 2020

06 Aug 2020

06 Jul 2020

27 Apr 2020

16 Apr 2020

Although the consequences may be similar, there are significant differences between the economic recession of 2008 and the crisis that has abruptly erupted in 2020, primarily their origins: the Great Recession of 2008 was systemic and first took hold in the financial system; the Great Pandemic of 2020 is a cyclical crisis caused because the economy was brought to a sudden standstill in response to a health crisis. While there is a lot of uncertainty about the outcome, experts say that the rate of recovery depends on the speed with which containment measures are lifted.

19 Feb 2020

28 Jan 2020

23 Jan 2020

13 Dec 2019

06 Dec 2019

31 Jul 2019

03 Jul 2019

According to the latest Economic Outlook published this week by BBVA Research, GDP growth has decelerated in 2Q2019, but a rebound in consumption should support moderate growth rates in 2H2019. Survey-based investment indicators are also declining amidst deteriorating business expectations. In addition, countervailing trade dynamics -- weaker global growth versus reduced trade tensions -- imply there will be no material change in the net export balance.

06 Feb 2019

BBVA Research maintains its forecasts of 2.4% growth in Spain in 2019 and 2% in 2020, according to the latest report, Spain Economic Outlook. The report was presented today by BBVA Research Director and BBVA Group Chief Economist  Jorge Sicilia, and Rafael Doménech, the Head of Economic Analysis at BBVA Research. BBVA Research indicates that the recovery will continue, although the trend toward moderated growth is expected to consolidate over the coming quarters. Should this forecast be confirmed, the economy could add around 800,000 jobs over the next two years. This would represent a decrease in the job creation rate, but lower unemployment to 12.6% in 2020.

14 Nov 2018

07 Nov 2018

BBVA Compass Chief Risk Officer Javier Hernández has a long history with BBVA, the parent of BBVA Compass, having joined the bank in 1998. Since that time, he’s been through financial up and down swings, as well as watched the dawn of the tech revolution in finance - all of which has given him an unbeatable perspective on the function of risk in such times. He sat down with External Communications to tell us more about his role, the evolution of Risk Management and the impact of digital.

16 Oct 2018

BBVA Research lowered growth expectations for Spain’s GDP to 2.6 percent in 2018 and 2.4 percent in 2019 (representing a drop of 0.3 and  0.1 percentage points, respectively, from the forecast of three months ago). The downward revision is primarily due to a more modest performance in the first half of the year. Lower growth of both exports and private consumption are two important factors contributing to the revised projections. This was the view detailed in the most recent report on the Spanish Economic Outlook, presented today by Jorge Sicilia, chief economist at BBVA Group and director of BBVA Research; Rafael Doménech, head of Macroeconomic analysis at BBVA Research; and Miguel Cardoso, BBVA Research's chief economist for Spain and Portugal.

20 Sep 2018

After the hike in interest rates by the Central Bank of Turkey on September 13 (625 basis points from 17.75 percent to 24 percent), the Turkish government today (Thursday) unveiled a new economic program for the next three years (2019-2021). BBVA Research in a report released Thursday believes that both monetary policy and fiscal policy are now better geared toward correcting inflation and the imbalances of the Turkish economy.

17 Jul 2018

BBVA Research maintains its GDP growth forecasts for Spain at 2.9 percent for 2018 and 2.5 percent for 2019. The increasing likelihood that some risks might finally materialize could drive the Spanish economy to slower growth scenarios, according to the latest Spain Economic Outlook report published by BBVA’s studies unit. The report was presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of BBVA Group and Head of BBVA Research, Rafael Doménech, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis of BBVA Research and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist Spain and Portugal. Under this scenario, the country is expected to generate about 880,000 jobs over the two-year period, causing the country’s unemployment rate to drop below 14%.

26 Jun 2018

“I love food and I am mad about sports." Hearing him talk about his hobbies, Jaime Sáenz de Tejada (Madrid, 1968) comes across as someone who enjoys life. As a kid he was into basketball and track and field. Later, he got interested in paddle tennis and golf. About a year and a half ago he fractured his thigh bone forcing him to focus a bit more on swimming and cycling. He defines himself as a lover of Peruvian cuisine, because it offers “the best fusion of sensitivities from many places, with ingredients of unparalleled quality.” He’s even given cooking chifa (a fusion of Peruvian ingredients and traditions with Cantonese elements) a go, but “being surrounded by so much talent, I would never dare to compete in culinary skills.” Married and with five children – “one of them is on his way to becoming a chef, just like his mom,”- he’s been a part of BBVA for more than 25 years. In 2014 he became the Group’s Chief Financial Officer. He devotes most of his scant free time to “living his children’s education intensely and sharing activities with them.” He’s been lucky to live in New York – at two different periods - , London, Uruguay and Peru.

27 Apr 2018

As expected, the European Central Bank left interest rates and its asset-purchasing program, or quantitative easing (QE), unchanged. After its policy meeting, Mario Draghi instead stressed concerns about the global risks posed by protectionism as well as the need to focus on inflation.

10 Apr 2018

Although the uncertainty surrounding Catalonia’s economic policy hasn’t had the expected negative impact, the favorable global environment seems to have offset the its negative effect on production and employment. Consequently, BBVA Research has upgraded its 2018 and 2019 GDP growth forecasts for Spain to 2.9% and 2.5% from 2.5% and 2.3% respectively. The report was presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of BBVA Group and Head of BBVA Research, Rafael Doménech, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis of BBVA Research and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist Spain and Portugal. Under this scenario, the country is expected to generate about 940,000 jobs over the two year period, causing the country’s unemployment rate to drop below 14%.

22 Mar 2018

As we expected, the FOMC increased the Fed funds rate to 1.5%-1.75%, confirming that newly appointed Chairman is committed to maintaining continuity with his predecessor. The language in the statement underpinned the committee’s shift from a defensive to potentially offensive mindset, with strong labor market signals, increased business investment and firmer actual inflation readings.

09 Mar 2018

As expected the European Central Bank (ECB) yesterday took a further step toward the normalization of its monetary policy. That is BBVA Research’s reading of the situation in its ECB Watch report. The institution headed by Mario Draghi left interest rates unchanged and will continue with its asset-purchasing program, commonly known in English as quantitative easing (QE). The main development that emerged from the policy meeting was the dropping of the “explicit reference” to the possibility of increasing the size of the program. And that already represents a change.

21 Feb 2018

On January 31st, the European Banking Authority (EBA) announced the formal launch of this year’s EU-wide stress test exercise of the euro area. It also unveiled the macroeconomic scenarios under which the exercise will be carried out. The  adverse scenario implies a deviation of EU GDP from its baseline level by 8.3% in 2020, resulting in the most severe scenario to date. The EBA expects to publish the results of the exercise by 2 November 2018

02 Feb 2018