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Economic indexes

19 Jun 2018

As the European Central Bank celebrates its 20th anniversary, we take a look back at some of its defining milestones. Not in vain, the ECB has been the guarantor of the euro’s survival and, since 2014, the central axis of the euro area’s financial system. Since the onset of the 2008 financial crisis, the ECB took on a role that was pivotal for a huge part of the recovery. However, “it cannot act alone”: “further strengthening of Europe´s institutional and legal framework is necessary to construct a more united and resilient Europe to face future challenges.”

15 Feb 2018

02 Feb 2018

25 Jan 2018

16 Jan 2018

BBVA Research maintains its forecasts for Spain’s GDP growth in 2017 and 2018 at 3.1% and 2.5%, respectively. In addition, it expects that the economic recovery will continue in 2019  (with a 2.3% increase in GDP) and that the improvement in the economy will translate into wage growth. BBVA Research’s latest Spain Economic Outlook was presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of the BBVA Group and Director of BBVA Research; Rafael Doménech, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at BBVA Research; and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist for Spain and Portugal.  If these forecasts prove to be correct, Spain´s unemployment rate could drop to 13.4% by end of 2019, which would imply the creation of 860,000 jobs over the next two years.

07 Nov 2017

According to BBVA Research’s latest Spain Outlook report, 2017 will cap off Spain’s three-year run of GDP growth at rates above three percent. Recovery will continue in 2018, but at a slower pace, in an environment marked by rising uncertainties. The report was presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of BBVA Group and Head of BBVA Research, Rafael Doménech, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis of BBVA Research and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist Spain and Portugal. Considering this scenario, BBVA Research has downgraded its GDP growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018 to 3.1 and 2.5%, from 3.3% and 2.8% in July.

29 Sep 2017

20 Jul 2017

30 Mar 2017

There has been an increasing focus on sustainable finance and on the impact of the climate change for the financial stability since 2015 year. Having said that, sustainable finance and the analysis of the consequences of climate change for the financial system are still in a very nascent stage and there is still a lot of work to be done. Two leading projects that are a step in the right direction are those of the Financial Stability Board (FSB) Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) Recommendations -at global level- and the creation of a European Expert Group on sustainable finance -in the EU.

29 Mar 2017

After the positive surprise of growth in Q3 2016 (+2% y-o-y) and the developments that took place in the final months of the year, we expect GDP for 2016, which will be disclosed in May, to close at about 1.2%, finally pulling out of the stagnation of recent years, and leaving a positive momentum for 2017.

22 Dec 2016

06 Oct 2016

22 Sep 2016

11 Aug 2016

29 Jul 2016

14 Jul 2016

After a period of steady decline, the prices of copper -Chile’s main export product- now stand at levels close the average cost of production of the mining companies that operate in the country. This has prompted a drop, not only in the industry’s investment and employment rates, but also in Chile’s economic activity level as a whole.

13 Jun 2016

BBVA’s Executive Board Director and Chief Officer of Global Economics, Regulation & Public Affairs, José Manuel González-Páramo, sent a message to European leaders today in Santander. “What we have learned from the crisis is that political and private leaders should set their sights high and be ambitious when facing challenges and making decisions,” he maintained at the Menéndez Pelayo International University/Spanish Association of Financial Reports (UIMP/APIE) course while analyzing the challenges facing Europe, Spain and the financial sector.

10 Jun 2016

There is broad consensus regarding the objective to expand the participation of economic agents in the financial system. Various studies have found that greater financial inclusion increases the population’s welfare, reduces the likelihood of falling into poverty, increases productivity and generates a significant positive impact on the country’s macro-economy. For all these reasons global economic policy agendas have been strongly recommending the implementation of measures to help strengthen financial inclusion in countries.

11 May 2016

22 Apr 2016

GDP expected to grow at about 2% in a scenario marked by lower oil prices and a complex international context for the country’s investments and exports. Growth in 2016 will be driven by expansions in the petrochemical industry, imports and the services and construction sectors.

14 Mar 2016

During his address in Bilbao, during the conference organized by Elkargi SGR, BBVA Executive Director remarked that “the Spanish economy is managing to keep high growth rates despite global and local uncertainties.”  He defended the need for greater EU-wide integration and the implementation of free trade agreements – such as the TTIP which the US and EU are currently negotiating – as levers for economic stability and growth inside and outside Spain.

19 Feb 2016

04 Feb 2016

Central banks in Latin America are finding it particularly difficult to meet their target of low and stable inflation, since many countries are facing at the same time problems of high inflation (fueled by the depreciation of the exchange rate) and low economic growth.

27 Jan 2016

Brazil’s economic recession may end up affecting all other Latin American countries, especially its closest neighbors: Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. The negative effects of this situation will be mostly felt on trade but they will also impact tourism, foreign direct investment (FDI), and fund flows, among others. However, according to BBVA Research, the general effect of Brazil’s negative circumstances is not strong enough to bring a crisis situation to other countries in the region.

21 Jan 2016

Brazil, the biggest economy in Latin America, is facing a political and economic crisis that is keeping the country in recession and will extend over 2016. We talked about the economic situation and outlook for the country with Enestor Dos Santos, economist at BBVA Research for Brazil, who explained that if the situation is to be normalized it is important to resolve the political situation first. This will reduce uncertainty, generate more stability and enable the right decisions to be made to allow the country to grow again. However, he clarifies that recovery from this economic recession will start gradually in 2017 and gather strength after the 2018 elections.

07 Jan 2016

The commodities boom has reached its end, impacting strongly on Latin American economies. Fiscal balances have been affected by lower currency revenue, currencies have devalued significantly, with the subsequent fall in the value of exports, and the exchange rate effect has led to a rise in inflation.  It has also had a negative impact on GDP growth that could become more pronounced if prices fall further in 2016.

30 Dec 2015

Like in previous years, the year now reaching its end has been an obstacle course. However, Spain has not only made the grade but is set to end the year with a “score” that is considered to be impressive by its European partners (GDP growth forecast at 3.2%). Like all other countries in Europe, the Spanish economy has been exposed and remains exposed to various risks.

29 Dec 2015

15 Dec 2015

El Niño is the warm phase of the ENSO (“El Niño Southern Oscillation”), a meteorological event defined by prolonged warming in the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. This year’s event is currently affecting the countries of the Latin American Pacific basin, and could be the worst since 1950, due to the impact of the climate change.

03 Nov 2015

11 Feb 2015