Gross domestic product
BBVA Executive Chairman Carlos Torres Vila has described the European recovery plan (Next Generation EU) as “a landmark opportunity for Spain.” He asserted that “if the aid is complemented by appropriate reforms, Spain could put an end to its elevated structural unemployment, which has hovered above 16 percent over the last four decades, while laying the foundations of an economy based on green and digital growth, a data-driven economy.”
23 Feb 2018
02 Feb 2018
Over the past three years, the asset allocation team of BBVA Asset Management has overhauled its investment process to bring as much objectivity as possible to decision-making when building a portfolio. Based on the principles of behavioral economics, the new process aims to determine how the power of the mind affects financial decisions.
25 Jan 2018
Economic activity in Latin America has been invigorated in recent months, in line with the recovery of confidence among families and businesses and a more favorable external context. In its Latin America Economic Outlook for first quarter 2018, BBVA Research forecasts that the region’s growth will increase from 1.1% in 2017 to 1.7% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019.
16 Jan 2018
BBVA Research maintains its forecasts for Spain’s GDP growth in 2017 and 2018 at 3.1% and 2.5%, respectively. In addition, it expects that the economic recovery will continue in 2019 (with a 2.3% increase in GDP) and that the improvement in the economy will translate into wage growth. BBVA Research’s latest Spain Economic Outlook was presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of the BBVA Group and Director of BBVA Research; Rafael Doménech, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at BBVA Research; and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist for Spain and Portugal. If these forecasts prove to be correct, Spain´s unemployment rate could drop to 13.4% by end of 2019, which would imply the creation of 860,000 jobs over the next two years.
13 Dec 2017
Once again, the Argentine economy faces critical decisions to avoid a new downturn and take the path to more sustainable growth. Markets are keeping a close eye on the post-electoral roadmap outlined by the administration of President Mauricio Macri.
The outlook for Argentina’s economy in 2018 remains optimistic, with GDP expected to expand by nearly 3% for the second consecutive year. However, achieving sustained growth and attracting international investment will depend, not just on stable macro indicators, but on long-lasting structural reforms. While the initial signs of economic recovery became apparent in the second half of 2016, it wasn’t until mid-2017 that growth rates began to pick up across most industries.
07 Nov 2017
According to BBVA Research’s latest Spain Outlook report, 2017 will cap off Spain’s three-year run of GDP growth at rates above three percent. Recovery will continue in 2018, but at a slower pace, in an environment marked by rising uncertainties. The report was presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of BBVA Group and Head of BBVA Research, Rafael Doménech, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis of BBVA Research and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist Spain and Portugal. Considering this scenario, BBVA Research has downgraded its GDP growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018 to 3.1 and 2.5%, from 3.3% and 2.8% in July.
30 Oct 2017
Digitization is primarily an English term. According to a report, the U.S. and U.K. are the countries whose economies are the most prepared for a fourth industrial revolution.
19 Oct 2017
BBVA Research has upgraded its Latin America 2017 growth forecast by 30 basic points, citing improvement in domestic demand in Mexico and Peru. The BBVA Group study service expects the region to grow 1.1% in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018.
29 Sep 2017
After seven years of negotiations, the Canada-Europe Trade Agreement, CETA, has entered into force provisionally. Under this bilateral agreement, the most ambitious signed to date by Brussels, most custom duties levied on trade flows between both countries will be scrapped.
20 Jul 2017
Argentina and Brazil are finally pulling out of recession and driving the economic growth in Latin America as a whole this year, despite the slowdown in other countries in the region. According to BBVA Resarch’s ‘Latin America Economic Outlook’ Q3 report, the region will grow 0.8% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018.
23 May 2017
Latin America is not very keen on, or good at saving, says a new publication by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). The solution would be to promote financial education and build a culture based on improving saving habits among Latin Americans.
21 Apr 2017
The economic slowdown in Latin America will come to an end this year, with a 1.1% growth rate in the region. Forecasts by BBVA Research estimate that in 2018, the region´s economy will continue to recover, with GDP expanding at the rate of 1.8%. This is still well below its potential, which is estimated at close to 3%.
29 Mar 2017
After the positive surprise of growth in Q3 2016 (+2% y-o-y) and the developments that took place in the final months of the year, we expect GDP for 2016, which will be disclosed in May, to close at about 1.2%, finally pulling out of the stagnation of recent years, and leaving a positive momentum for 2017.
16 Feb 2017
South America’s GDP will recover in 2017 after four years of economic slowdown, while Mexico will bear the impact of the uncertainty surrounding US policies, which is likely to hinder its growth prospects. These are the key conclusions of BBVA Research’s Latin America Outlook Q1 2017 report.
30 Jan 2017
22 Dec 2016
The 2017 business year will mark a turning point for Latin American economies, with an estimate growth of 1.3% for the region as a whole, compared to a 1.3% dip in 2016. This is what emerges from BBVA Research’s 4th Quarter Latin America Outlook report. The recovery, however, will be gradual and the region will remain well below potential growth, about 3%.
01 Dec 2016
In the last five years, Paraguay’s economy grew at an annual average rate of around 5% – one of the highest in the region. This economic performance is especially remarkable considering it occurred in a rather volatile international environment, characterized by turbulent international financial markets, lower capital inflows to emerging economies and falling prices for metals and agricultural products. The Paraguayan economy was also affected by declining activity of some the region’s most significant trade partners.
14 Sep 2016
The structural reforms approved in Mexico in 2013 will allow growing the potential growth rate in the medium term. The measures are intended to make the economy more competitive. If their implementation process is adequately concluded, they may add up to one percentage point to the potential growth of the country.
13 Sep 2016
Mexico’s banking market is in the middle of an expansionary period due to demographic factors and the macroeconomic stability that has been attained over recent years. This has produced a growing demand for credit in several different sectors, permitting a positive financing outlook that could reach the equivalent of 40% of Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the coming years.
11 Aug 2016
Juan Ruiz, BBVA Research Chief Economist for Latin America, said that this will be the last year of Latin American’s recent economic slowdown. Despite Brexit and subsequent market volatility, the inflow of capital continued across the region.
02 Aug 2016
The recent report, The Business of Financial Inclusion: Insights from Banks in Emerging Markets represents a new endeavor for the Institute of International Finance (IIF). It is based on the insights of 24 executives in charge of financial inclusion, a topic of growing interest.
21 Jul 2016
The U.K. unexpectedly voting to leave the EU in the referendum (Brexit) increases uncertainty in the global economy, according to a BBVA Research report published on July 5th. The negative bias could subtract approximately -0.2% from global GDP growth, previously expected to be 3.4% in 2017 until now.
15 Jul 2016
Productivity means doing things better, doing more with the same resources, combining them more efficiently to produce better results. And greater productivity – as well as more investment and jobs – is exactly what we need in Chile to return to the growth rates that improved millions of people’s quality of life over the past 25 years.
14 Jul 2016
After a period of steady decline, the prices of copper -Chile’s main export product- now stand at levels close the average cost of production of the mining companies that operate in the country. This has prompted a drop, not only in the industry’s investment and employment rates, but also in Chile’s economic activity level as a whole.
13 Jul 2016
A healthy and robust financial system supports the economic development of a country because it streamlines capital investments on productive activities, such as construction, industry, technology or market expansion. It also contributes to the advancement of society helping to provide solutions to meet its needs, such as housing, education and employment, to name a few
Since it was formally established in 2012, the Pacific Alliance (PA) has become a global power. With 220 million people, it is the eighth largest economy in the world in terms of GDP and the eighth largest exporter.
12 Jul 2016
Over the past three decades, an economic model has gained a foothold in Chile that has proven successful at a number of levels, such as enabling high GDP growth rates (yearly average of 5.3%), helping the country to significantly bridge the income gap with developed countries such as the U.S. and Germany and improving in the living standards of the population.
08 Jun 2016
There is no question that Latin American countries are highly diverse. It is precisely now, in the absence of tailwinds and with very similar external shocks, when we see the difference in the credibility and strength of the macroeconomic political frameworks in the different countries, and their differing capacities to absorb these shocks without unduly affecting their growth.
07 Jun 2016
Between 2002 and 2013, the Peruvian economy underwent a stage of fast and strong growth. During this period, the average annual growth rate was 6.1%. As a result, in a relatively short period of time, the per capita purchasing power of Peruvians nearly doubled and poverty declined by approximately 30 percentage points.
27 May 2016
Slow recovery of commodity prices and weak economic activity have affected tax revenue. This has lead to adjustments in government spending in many Latin American economies. Therefore, despite some recovery in commodity prices over recent months, BBVA Research has lowered its growth outlook for the region to an expected contraction of -1.1% in 2016. In its Latin America Economic Outlook report on the second quarter, BBVA Research affirms that it does expect to see 1.7% growth in 2017.
11 May 2016
BBVA Research presented the latest edition of its Spain Economic Outlook report today. Economists’ forecasts for upcoming quarters remain unchanged from the forecasts that were published in the last first quarter report.
22 Apr 2016
GDP expected to grow at about 2% in a scenario marked by lower oil prices and a complex international context for the country’s investments and exports. Growth in 2016 will be driven by expansions in the petrochemical industry, imports and the services and construction sectors.
20 Apr 2016
Energy plays a crucial role in a country’s social and economic development. As a country gains wealth, its economy requires more energy. Energy is needed for the industrial sector, fuel for vehicles, temperature regulation of buildings and homes and the increasing demand for power for electronic equipment and appliances.
22 Mar 2016
Turkey shows the macroeconomic profile of a country in the midst of its financial takeoff, although highly conditioned by its international commercial relationships.
24 Feb 2016
Today the European Banking Authority (EBA) released the final methodology and macroeconomic scenario for upcoming stress tests of the 53 main European banks, including BBVA.
19 Feb 2016
Latin America’s economy, taken as a whole, is set to contract 0.9% in 2016, dragged by Brazil’s recession. According to BBVA Research’s Latin America Situation report corresponding to the first quarter of 2016, the region’s economy is expected to start gaining momentum in 2017, with a growth rate of 1.9%.
12 Feb 2016
In 2015, the global economy has possibly grown at its slowest rate since 2009. Economists expect global GDP to increase at a moderate rate, around 3%. Moreover, this year the progress made by emerging markets will not be enough to offset the adjustment in developed countries. How can regulation contribute to reverse this trend?
04 Feb 2016
Central banks in Latin America are finding it particularly difficult to meet their target of low and stable inflation, since many countries are facing at the same time problems of high inflation (fueled by the depreciation of the exchange rate) and low economic growth.
27 Jan 2016
Brazil’s economic recession may end up affecting all other Latin American countries, especially its closest neighbors: Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. The negative effects of this situation will be mostly felt on trade but they will also impact tourism, foreign direct investment (FDI), and fund flows, among others. However, according to BBVA Research, the general effect of Brazil’s negative circumstances is not strong enough to bring a crisis situation to other countries in the region.
21 Jan 2016
Brazil, the biggest economy in Latin America, is facing a political and economic crisis that is keeping the country in recession and will extend over 2016. We talked about the economic situation and outlook for the country with Enestor Dos Santos, economist at BBVA Research for Brazil, who explained that if the situation is to be normalized it is important to resolve the political situation first. This will reduce uncertainty, generate more stability and enable the right decisions to be made to allow the country to grow again. However, he clarifies that recovery from this economic recession will start gradually in 2017 and gather strength after the 2018 elections.
15 Jan 2016
A study by the Economic Studies Institute (IEE),analyzing the impact of the TTIP on the Spanish economy, calculates that in a scenario which is both long term (3 to 5 years) and ambitious (decrease of 25% in current non-tariff barriers), the Spanish GDP could increase by 0.74% annually if this agreement was signed.
07 Jan 2016
The commodities boom has reached its end, impacting strongly on Latin American economies. Fiscal balances have been affected by lower currency revenue, currencies have devalued significantly, with the subsequent fall in the value of exports, and the exchange rate effect has led to a rise in inflation. It has also had a negative impact on GDP growth that could become more pronounced if prices fall further in 2016.
05 Jan 2016
Economic recovery, balancing national budgets and controlling inflation are just some of the challenges facing Latin American countries in the coming year. After a less than dynamic 2015, it is hoped that 2016 will see a return to economic growth, though this is one objective which will not be easy to achieve.
04 Jan 2016
Without a doubt, of all the big challenges that lie ahead for Spain in the year that has just begun, the most pressing one is consolidating the economic recovery and improving the job market. Experts agree that stability and continuity of reforms are essential to achieve these objectives.