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Interest rates

17 Sep 2018

As widely expected, the ECB concluded its monetary policy meeting yesterday without making any changes to its monetary policy stance. As BBVA Research’s ECB Watch report notes, there were other key takeaways that came out of the meeting, such as the end of the Asset Purchase Programming, and the confirmation that the bank is in no rush to hike interest rates. From an economic standpoint, the institution affirmed its inflation outlook but slightly lowered its growth expectations for the euro zone.

13 Sep 2018

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CRBT) decided today to raise the official interest rate by 625 basis points from 17.75 percent to 24 percent. As a BBVA Research report points out, the hike came in above market expectations (21 percent according to Bloomberg consensus estimates), and BBVA Research’s own forecast (22.75 percent). BBVA Research welcomes the move and believes it should be backed up by a medium-term coherent and detailed fiscal plan.

27 Jul 2018

The European Central Bank on Thursday announced it is maintaining its monetary policy unchanged. Interest rates will remain at current levels until the summer of 2019 or “as long as necessary”, as announced in its June meeting. In doing so, ECB President Mario Draghi gave no further clarification on the next steps in the bank’s roadmap and intoned the mantra of prudence and patience.

11 Jun 2018

Over the past several years, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has gradually increased the federal funds interest rates both as a response to favorable economic conditions and in order to curb inflation. In a rising interest rate environment such as this, lending is affected as banks set their own interest rates according to the prime rate, which is mostly determined by the aforementioned federal funds rate.

09 Mar 2018

As expected the European Central Bank (ECB) yesterday took a further step toward the normalization of its monetary policy. That is BBVA Research’s reading of the situation in its ECB Watch report. The institution headed by Mario Draghi left interest rates unchanged and will continue with its asset-purchasing program, commonly known in English as quantitative easing (QE). The main development that emerged from the policy meeting was the dropping of the “explicit reference” to the possibility of increasing the size of the program. And that already represents a change.

02 Feb 2018

26 Jan 2018

As had been expected, following its monthly meeting the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged. At the same time, ECB President Mario Draghi introduced the exchange rate as an element of uncertainty, stressing that he will monitor the fluctuations in the euro and their possible consequences. Likewise, he reiterated the possibility of broadening the bond purchase program, continuing his accommodative policy, which will be accompanied by interest rates at minimum levels for a long period of time.

25 Jan 2018

26 Dec 2017

The beginning of the normalization of monetary policy in 2018 should bring greater profitability for banks, a larger investor appetite and a positive outlook for the stock market. However, what is perhaps more important, the new policy will enable banks to meet one of their principal goals: supporting economic growth by financing companies and private individuals.

02 Nov 2017

A swap is an agreement for a financial exchange in which one of the two parties promises to make, with an established frequency, a series of payments, in exchange for receiving another set of payments from the other party. These flows normally respond to interest payments based on the nominal amount of the swap.

19 Oct 2017

21 Jul 2017

Mario Draghi did not surprise anyone yesterday. As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) unanimously decided to leave interest rates unchanged. He also did not announce any immediate changes to the asset purchase program. However, he did offer some clues as to the direction the ECB will follow after the summer.  As BBVA Research notes in its ECB Watch report, the discussion on gradually tapering QE (Quantitative Easing, the ECB´s asset purchase program) will take place in the fall – most likely in September.

20 Jul 2017

09 Jun 2017

As the markets expected, at its June meeting the European Central Bank (ECB) closed the door on further interest-rate cuts and adopted a more neutral stance on risks, although maintaining caution. Despite the fact that the institution has not yet given signs of taking a step to exit the current monetary policy, the ECB Watch report published by BBVA Research suggests that in September it may announce a slowdown in asset purchases starting in 2018.

26 May 2017

21 Mar 2017

14 Mar 2017

10 Mar 2017

Mario Draghi did not announce any new changes in monetary policy at Thursday’s press conference, but the latest European Central Bank (ECB) meeting did lead to some updates. On the one hand, the ECB is more optimistic about economic growth. On the other, it is raising its 2017 inflation forecast to 1.7% (from 1.3% in December) due to growing energy prices, but it barely changed its core inflation projection. And last, but not least, it added some nuances to its wording, which could be the prelude to changes in its monetary policy,  BBVA Research notes in its ECB Watch report.

16 Feb 2017

13 Feb 2017

30 Jan 2017

In Barcelona today, BBVA’s Executive Director José Manuel González-Páramo reflected on the factors that have influenced the current context of low, and even negative interest rates in developed economies. BBVA’s Executive Director shared his vision of what has led to this environment, the impact it is having on the markets and above all, where we are headed. In his opinion, low interest rates will remain for an extended period of time.

González-Páramo participated in the 25th anniversary of Inverco Catalunya where President Carlos Tusquets gave the opening speech. In his presentation titled, “Low interest rates: Where we are coming from, the impact and where we are going” BBVA’s Executive Director underscored that debate is currently focusing on estimating the amount of time low interest rates will remain, what will be the new equilibrium and what policies and strategies are appropriate for a change in trend.

20 Jan 2017

15 Dec 2016

After a yearlong pause, the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to raise interest rates 25bp to 0.5-0.75%. Based on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s press conference, it seems the recent market exuberance has not diverted the Fed from its current strategy for a gradual increases. The press conference reinforced the idea that the committee may be somewhat tolerant in the short-run, but that it would like to see fiscal policy directed at boosting productivity rather than stimulating the economy.

21 Nov 2016

One of the questions hanging over the European economy and more specifically, the financial sector, is if the ECB will maintain its current policy of low, or even negative, interest rates for an extended period of time. Moreover, after the warnings announced last Thursday by the Chair of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, who predicted a hike of the interest rates “relatively soon” if the improvement in the labour market and the inflation continues.

Economists and experts differ over whether this policy is reaching its end, or is here to stay for a while. While the ECB decides if the low rates will remain or start to increase, banks are reflecting on how to face this new environment that is putting their profitability at risk. One key way is through digitization.

22 Sep 2016

16 Jun 2016

Fed members just can’t seem to make up their mind these days. One minute they are shouting out encouraging signals about the U.S. economy, and the next it is all gloom and doom. In the end, we are left with a mixed signal as to what is really going on, with the impression that Fed members themselves don’t really have any idea on how to proceed in such an uncertain economic environment.

03 Jun 2016

The trade finance or foreign trade activity accompanies people and businesses in their activity importing/exporting goods and services, mitigating the risks that exist in international commercial relations and simplifying the settlement of operations. The same commercial transaction can require different solutions over time, depending on the moment at which it takes place and the role of the parties involved (importer or exporter).

19 May 2016

The head of Country Networks at BBVA, Vicente Rodero, underscored the bank’s excellent position to face the challenges European and Spanish banks have before them.

“Our geographic diversity, universal, customer-centric banking model, our focus on risk management and the development of new digital functionalities are key elements of our strategy. We aim to lead the transformation of banks in all the regions where we have a presence,” Vicente Rodero explained at an event organized by APD (Asociación para el Progreso de la Dirección) this morning in Bilbao.

22 Apr 2016

GDP expected to grow at about 2% in a scenario marked by lower oil prices and a complex international context for the country’s investments and exports. Growth in 2016 will be driven by expansions in the petrochemical industry, imports and the services and construction sectors.

15 Mar 2016

09 Mar 2016

08 Mar 2016

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Who do we have in mind when referring to globally relevant women? Well, not about Beyoncé in music nor Angela Merkel in politics. We talk about the three women at the head of the three most relevant economic organizations in the world: The US Federal Reserve, the International Monetary Fund, and the Single Supervisory Mechanism of the European Central Bank. In this article, we take look at some of the career highlights of these leaders and how they have shaped their respective institutions, at this crucial time for the global economy.

19 Feb 2016

04 Feb 2016

Central banks in Latin America are finding it particularly difficult to meet their target of low and stable inflation, since many countries are facing at the same time problems of high inflation (fueled by the depreciation of the exchange rate) and low economic growth.

21 Jan 2016

Brazil, the biggest economy in Latin America, is facing a political and economic crisis that is keeping the country in recession and will extend over 2016. We talked about the economic situation and outlook for the country with Enestor Dos Santos, economist at BBVA Research for Brazil, who explained that if the situation is to be normalized it is important to resolve the political situation first. This will reduce uncertainty, generate more stability and enable the right decisions to be made to allow the country to grow again. However, he clarifies that recovery from this economic recession will start gradually in 2017 and gather strength after the 2018 elections.

20 Jan 2016

19 Jan 2016

18 Dec 2015

Lower interest rates on deposits, extension of the quantitative easing policy until March 2017… the measures announced in the ECB’s last meeting did not seem enough. This Thursday, ECB President Mario Draghi will chair the first meeting of a 2016 riddled with challenges, with the confidence of someone who has succeeded in dizzying situations and prevented the collapse of the single currency. His pledge in 2012 to “do whatever it takes to preserve the euro.  And believe me, it will be enough” still resounds in the collective mind of the EU. We will review now some of his most relevant decisions, and what’s yet to come.