17 Sep 2018
As widely expected, the ECB concluded its monetary policy meeting yesterday without making any changes to its monetary policy stance. As BBVA Research’s ECB Watch report notes, there were other key takeaways that came out of the meeting, such as the end of the Asset Purchase Programming, and the confirmation that the bank is in no rush to hike interest rates. From an economic standpoint, the institution affirmed its inflation outlook but slightly lowered its growth expectations for the euro zone.
13 Sep 2018
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CRBT) decided today to raise the official interest rate by 625 basis points from 17.75 percent to 24 percent. As a BBVA Research report points out, the hike came in above market expectations (21 percent according to Bloomberg consensus estimates), and BBVA Research’s own forecast (22.75 percent). BBVA Research welcomes the move and believes it should be backed up by a medium-term coherent and detailed fiscal plan.
27 Jul 2018
The European Central Bank on Thursday announced it is maintaining its monetary policy unchanged. Interest rates will remain at current levels until the summer of 2019 or “as long as necessary”, as announced in its June meeting. In doing so, ECB President Mario Draghi gave no further clarification on the next steps in the bank’s roadmap and intoned the mantra of prudence and patience.
11 Jun 2018
Over the past several years, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has gradually increased the federal funds interest rates both as a response to favorable economic conditions and in order to curb inflation. In a rising interest rate environment such as this, lending is affected as banks set their own interest rates according to the prime rate, which is mostly determined by the aforementioned federal funds rate.
09 Mar 2018
As expected the European Central Bank (ECB) yesterday took a further step toward the normalization of its monetary policy. That is BBVA Research’s reading of the situation in its ECB Watch report. The institution headed by Mario Draghi left interest rates unchanged and will continue with its asset-purchasing program, commonly known in English as quantitative easing (QE). The main development that emerged from the policy meeting was the dropping of the “explicit reference” to the possibility of increasing the size of the program. And that already represents a change.
02 Feb 2018
Over the past three years, the asset allocation team of BBVA Asset Management has overhauled its investment process to bring as much objectivity as possible to decision-making when building a portfolio. Based on the principles of behavioral economics, the new process aims to determine how the power of the mind affects financial decisions.
26 Jan 2018
As had been expected, following its monthly meeting the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged. At the same time, ECB President Mario Draghi introduced the exchange rate as an element of uncertainty, stressing that he will monitor the fluctuations in the euro and their possible consequences. Likewise, he reiterated the possibility of broadening the bond purchase program, continuing his accommodative policy, which will be accompanied by interest rates at minimum levels for a long period of time.
25 Jan 2018
Economic activity in Latin America has been invigorated in recent months, in line with the recovery of confidence among families and businesses and a more favorable external context. In its Latin America Economic Outlook for first quarter 2018, BBVA Research forecasts that the region’s growth will increase from 1.1% in 2017 to 1.7% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019.
26 Dec 2017
The beginning of the normalization of monetary policy in 2018 should bring greater profitability for banks, a larger investor appetite and a positive outlook for the stock market. However, what is perhaps more important, the new policy will enable banks to meet one of their principal goals: supporting economic growth by financing companies and private individuals.
02 Nov 2017
A swap is an agreement for a financial exchange in which one of the two parties promises to make, with an established frequency, a series of payments, in exchange for receiving another set of payments from the other party. These flows normally respond to interest payments based on the nominal amount of the swap.
19 Oct 2017
BBVA Research has upgraded its Latin America 2017 growth forecast by 30 basic points, citing improvement in domestic demand in Mexico and Peru. The BBVA Group study service expects the region to grow 1.1% in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018.
21 Jul 2017
Mario Draghi did not surprise anyone yesterday. As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) unanimously decided to leave interest rates unchanged. He also did not announce any immediate changes to the asset purchase program. However, he did offer some clues as to the direction the ECB will follow after the summer. As BBVA Research notes in its ECB Watch report, the discussion on gradually tapering QE (Quantitative Easing, the ECB´s asset purchase program) will take place in the fall – most likely in September.
20 Jul 2017
Argentina and Brazil are finally pulling out of recession and driving the economic growth in Latin America as a whole this year, despite the slowdown in other countries in the region. According to BBVA Resarch’s ‘Latin America Economic Outlook’ Q3 report, the region will grow 0.8% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018.
09 Jun 2017
As the markets expected, at its June meeting the European Central Bank (ECB) closed the door on further interest-rate cuts and adopted a more neutral stance on risks, although maintaining caution. Despite the fact that the institution has not yet given signs of taking a step to exit the current monetary policy, the ECB Watch report published by BBVA Research suggests that in September it may announce a slowdown in asset purchases starting in 2018.
26 May 2017
BBVA Executive Director José Manuel González-Páramo predicts that the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy will normalize next year. He estimates that the ECB will announce a slower pace for asset purchases in the fall. “I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we saw the first interest rate hike at the end of 2018,” he said, during the Círculo de Economía meeting in Sitges.
21 Mar 2017
On Mar. 15, the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, announced it was raising its interim benchmark interest rate by a quarter point (commonly referred to as 25 basis points), helping to stabilize the economy and influence the amount of interest increase banks and other institutions could apply to overnight lending money.
14 Mar 2017
BBVA Compass economists lay out their reasons for raising their estimate to three rate hikes in 2017 in their latest Fed Watch report, pointing to the underlying strength of the economy and a series of hawkish speeches by key Federal Open Market Committee members.
10 Mar 2017
Mario Draghi did not announce any new changes in monetary policy at Thursday’s press conference, but the latest European Central Bank (ECB) meeting did lead to some updates. On the one hand, the ECB is more optimistic about economic growth. On the other, it is raising its 2017 inflation forecast to 1.7% (from 1.3% in December) due to growing energy prices, but it barely changed its core inflation projection. And last, but not least, it added some nuances to its wording, which could be the prelude to changes in its monetary policy, BBVA Research notes in its ECB Watch report.
16 Feb 2017
South America’s GDP will recover in 2017 after four years of economic slowdown, while Mexico will bear the impact of the uncertainty surrounding US policies, which is likely to hinder its growth prospects. These are the key conclusions of BBVA Research’s Latin America Outlook Q1 2017 report.
13 Feb 2017
How to solve the low interest rate issue? BBVA today announces the launch of a new competition aimed at finding a solution to a worldwide banking issue facing both investors and customers alike.
30 Jan 2017
In Barcelona today, BBVA’s Executive Director José Manuel González-Páramo reflected on the factors that have influenced the current context of low, and even negative interest rates in developed economies. BBVA’s Executive Director shared his vision of what has led to this environment, the impact it is having on the markets and above all, where we are headed. In his opinion, low interest rates will remain for an extended period of time.
González-Páramo participated in the 25th anniversary of Inverco Catalunya where President Carlos Tusquets gave the opening speech. In his presentation titled, “Low interest rates: Where we are coming from, the impact and where we are going” BBVA’s Executive Director underscored that debate is currently focusing on estimating the amount of time low interest rates will remain, what will be the new equilibrium and what policies and strategies are appropriate for a change in trend.
20 Jan 2017
15 Dec 2016
After a yearlong pause, the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to raise interest rates 25bp to 0.5-0.75%. Based on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s press conference, it seems the recent market exuberance has not diverted the Fed from its current strategy for a gradual increases. The press conference reinforced the idea that the committee may be somewhat tolerant in the short-run, but that it would like to see fiscal policy directed at boosting productivity rather than stimulating the economy.
21 Nov 2016
One of the questions hanging over the European economy and more specifically, the financial sector, is if the ECB will maintain its current policy of low, or even negative, interest rates for an extended period of time. Moreover, after the warnings announced last Thursday by the Chair of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, who predicted a hike of the interest rates “relatively soon” if the improvement in the labour market and the inflation continues.
Economists and experts differ over whether this policy is reaching its end, or is here to stay for a while. While the ECB decides if the low rates will remain or start to increase, banks are reflecting on how to face this new environment that is putting their profitability at risk. One key way is through digitization.
22 Sep 2016
Over the past eight years, we have seen markets panic on a number of occasions. Normally, there was a good reason for the sudden market crashes. Let’s take a look at the periods of greatest market volatility and analyze the central banks’ responses to reassure investors.
16 Jun 2016
Fed members just can’t seem to make up their mind these days. One minute they are shouting out encouraging signals about the U.S. economy, and the next it is all gloom and doom. In the end, we are left with a mixed signal as to what is really going on, with the impression that Fed members themselves don’t really have any idea on how to proceed in such an uncertain economic environment.
03 Jun 2016
The trade finance or foreign trade activity accompanies people and businesses in their activity importing/exporting goods and services, mitigating the risks that exist in international commercial relations and simplifying the settlement of operations. The same commercial transaction can require different solutions over time, depending on the moment at which it takes place and the role of the parties involved (importer or exporter).
19 May 2016
The head of Country Networks at BBVA, Vicente Rodero, underscored the bank’s excellent position to face the challenges European and Spanish banks have before them.
“Our geographic diversity, universal, customer-centric banking model, our focus on risk management and the development of new digital functionalities are key elements of our strategy. We aim to lead the transformation of banks in all the regions where we have a presence,” Vicente Rodero explained at an event organized by APD (Asociación para el Progreso de la Dirección) this morning in Bilbao.
22 Apr 2016
GDP expected to grow at about 2% in a scenario marked by lower oil prices and a complex international context for the country’s investments and exports. Growth in 2016 will be driven by expansions in the petrochemical industry, imports and the services and construction sectors.
15 Mar 2016
The latest batch of measures comes almost exactly one year later the ECB announced the purchase of EZ government bonds (March 9th, 2015). According to BBVA Research, with last Thursday’s announcements, the ECB stressed that there is ample room for further measures, dismissing the view that everything is done in terms of easing policy.
09 Mar 2016
After the words of Mario Draghi at the January meeting, leaving the door open to expand the measures of the European Central Bank this month, these are BBVA Research forecasts for the meeting tomorrow.
08 Mar 2016
Who do we have in mind when referring to globally relevant women? Well, not about Beyoncé in music nor Angela Merkel in politics. We talk about the three women at the head of the three most relevant economic organizations in the world: The US Federal Reserve, the International Monetary Fund, and the Single Supervisory Mechanism of the European Central Bank. In this article, we take look at some of the career highlights of these leaders and how they have shaped their respective institutions, at this crucial time for the global economy.
19 Feb 2016
Latin America’s economy, taken as a whole, is set to contract 0.9% in 2016, dragged by Brazil’s recession. According to BBVA Research’s Latin America Situation report corresponding to the first quarter of 2016, the region’s economy is expected to start gaining momentum in 2017, with a growth rate of 1.9%.
04 Feb 2016
Central banks in Latin America are finding it particularly difficult to meet their target of low and stable inflation, since many countries are facing at the same time problems of high inflation (fueled by the depreciation of the exchange rate) and low economic growth.
21 Jan 2016
Brazil, the biggest economy in Latin America, is facing a political and economic crisis that is keeping the country in recession and will extend over 2016. We talked about the economic situation and outlook for the country with Enestor Dos Santos, economist at BBVA Research for Brazil, who explained that if the situation is to be normalized it is important to resolve the political situation first. This will reduce uncertainty, generate more stability and enable the right decisions to be made to allow the country to grow again. However, he clarifies that recovery from this economic recession will start gradually in 2017 and gather strength after the 2018 elections.
20 Jan 2016
Ready, steady, go! The new year begins for the European Central Bank (ECB).
19 Jan 2016
18 Dec 2015
Lower interest rates on deposits, extension of the quantitative easing policy until March 2017… the measures announced in the ECB’s last meeting did not seem enough. This Thursday, ECB President Mario Draghi will chair the first meeting of a 2016 riddled with challenges, with the confidence of someone who has succeeded in dizzying situations and prevented the collapse of the single currency. His pledge in 2012 to “do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough” still resounds in the collective mind of the EU. We will review now some of his most relevant decisions, and what’s yet to come.