While ISIS lost ground in Syria and Iraq, Al-Qaeda resumed its offensive operations. Meanwhile, tensions between Russia and Ukraine stabilized after last month’s sharp conflict escalation. Geopolitical tensions in China could intensify as uncertainties regarding the US policy stance in the region remained and North Korea remains testing.

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While ISIS lost ground in Syria and Iraq, Al-Qaeda resumed its offensive operations, consolidating its strength during February. Meanwhile, tensions between Russia and Ukraine stabilized after last month’s sharp conflict escalation. Geopolitical tensions in China could intensify as uncertainties regarding the US policy stance in the region remained and North Korea remains testing. Algeria continued to deteriorate while Egypt improved. Social unrest increased in some Latin American countries, while Europe and Asia continued calm with focused and controlled hot spots.

BBVA Research world conflict Index 2008-17

Summary

The uncertainties about the new US Administration remain. The long-lasting political instability in North Africa and the Middle East is still alive. The Russian-Ukraine conflict stabilized but it is still unsolved. Instability in some Latin American have revived, but at lower levels than at the end of last year. Europe remained calm, but uncertainties about the several upcoming elections could increase and should be monitored.

More information at BBVA Research’s website

BBVA Research world conflict map 2016-17

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