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Economic analysis 14 Nov 2018

Economic Outlook for Fourth Quarter 2018

The BBVA Research team has published its Economic Outlook for fourth quarter 2018, a timely look at the anticipated economic impact of midterm elections.

The report provides a number of possible economic outcomes stemming from the election variables, including a continued single-party control at a federal level versus a newly divided government depending on results.

Other topics covered in the report include the advent of the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), the rise of the U.S. as an energy superpower, and the possibility of regional recessions. The Economic Outlook indicates that recession risks are minimal — both regionally and nationally — despite market volatility, rich equity valuations, inflationary pressures, a jolt of hawkish monetary policy and the length of the current expansion.

Led by Nathaniel Karp, BBVA Compass’ research team analyzes the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy. For its analyses, the economists create models and forecasts for growth, inflation, monetary policy and industries. The Economic Research team also follows a variety of issues that affect the Sunbelt states where BBVA Compass operates. Follow their work on Twitter @BBVAResearch and @BBVACompassNews.

Read the complete report here.

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