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Economy

Economy

BBVA-situacionespana-v2-14102019

In its latest Spain Outlook report, presented today by Jorge Sicilia, the Director of BBVA Research and Chief Economist for the BBVA Group, and Rafael Doménech, the Head of Economic Analysis, BBVA Research lowered the forecast for the national GDP growth to 1.9 percent (from 2.3 percent three months ago) and to 1.6 percent for 2020 (from the previous forecast of 1.9 percent). The decrease is explained by a review of economic data carried out by Spain’s national statistics body, the INE, due to the negative trend in some components of demand and the deteriorating international context. Under this scenario, around 750,000 jobs would be created over the two-year period and the unemployment rate would average 13.3 percent next year.

BBVA issued a $1 billion contingent convertible bond (CoCos), with demand exceeding by almost eight times the initial offer ($7.8 billion) and more than 410 orders from investors. High demand for the issuance allowed it to close at a very attractive price, with a coupon of 6.5 percent in dollars (0.50 basis points below the initial price of 7 percent), which is equivalent to a 4-percent coupon in euros.

situacion-espana-3t19-bbva-research

In its latest Spain Economic Outlook report – presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Director of BBVA Research and Chief Economist of BBVA Group, and Rafael Doménech, Head of Economic Analysis – BBVA’s research service slightly upgrades its domestic GDP growth forecast for 2019 to 2.3% (vs. 2.2% three months ago), and keeps its 2020 forecast unchanged at 1.9%. The economy is expected to continue expanding in the coming months, driven by the progressive recovery of the global environment, a more accommodative monetary policy and declining oil prices. Under this scenario, BBVA Research expects 810,000 new jobs to be created over the coming two-year period, driving the unemployment rate down to around 12.2% by the end of 2020.

According to the latest Economic Outlook published this week by BBVA Research, GDP growth has decelerated in 2Q2019, but a rebound in consumption should support moderate growth rates in 2H2019. Survey-based investment indicators are also declining amidst deteriorating business expectations. In addition, countervailing trade dynamics — weaker global growth versus reduced trade tensions — imply there will be no material change in the net export balance.

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BBVA Research, the research services arm of BBVA, has released its most recent edition of the “Spain Economic Outlook” where it forecasts a slight slowdown in growth. The report was presented today by BBVA Research Director and BBVA Group Chief Economist, Jorge Sicilia, and Rafael Doménech, Head of Economic Analysis at BBVA Research. The forecast lowers first quarter expectations to 2.2 percent in 2019 and 1.9 percent in 2020 (from 2.4 percent and 2 percent, respectively). Even so, the report signals that an improvement in economic activity could be underpinned by the global economy’s gradual recovery, an increasingly expansionary stance on monetary policy, continued low oil prices, and the positive conclusion to uncertainty stemming from different sources. Consequences of such a scenario would see a salary increase exceeding the inflation rate, an up to 12 percent reduction in unemployment in 2020, and the creation of close to 630,000 jobs over the next two years.

76 percent of Spanish enterprise businesses and 68 percent of SMEs will increase their investment in Latin America in 2019. Spanish investors see the best prospects in Colombia, Brazil, and Mexico, according to the latest report ‘Spanish Investment Landscape in Latin America‘, which was prepared by IE University, in collaboration with Llorente & Cuenca and Iberia, and presented at Casa de América in Madrid.