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Economy

Economy

Situación España 1T20

In its latest Spain Economic Outlook report – presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Director of BBVA Research and Chief Economist of BBVA Group, and Rafael Doménech, Head of Economic Analysis – BBVA’s research unit upheld the scenario it forecasted three months ago, which envisages a slowdown in Spain’s domestic GDP growth rate to 1.6% in 2020 from the 1.9% rate measured at 2019 year end. For 2021, a slightly more favorable international environment could result in a slight uptick in growth, with rates reverting to the 1.9% range. According to BBVA Research, this scenario would drive the creation of 600,000 jobs over the 2020-2021 timeframe, driving the unemployment rate down to around 12.5 percent, in average, in 2021.

Garanti BBVA and the Export-Import Bank of China have agreed to a $300 million, three-year loan to be used by Turkish companies to finance imports from China. A partner and trusted advisor to its clients engaging in international trade, BBVA’s Turkish unit forges international agreements in order to be able to offer customized financing solutions to this commercial segment. The agreement with China’s Exim Bank demonstrates the strength of Garanti BBVA’s long-lasting relationships with Chinese banks.

Joaquín García Huerga, director de Estrategia Global de BBVA Asset Management

The global economy is in the mature phase of the cycle, with an outlook for growth below potential in most countries. However, the rise in stock exchanges in 2020 should be largely due to valuation and, to a lesser extent, profit. “For the first time in recent years we see more potential in the European stock exchanges than in the S&P 500,” said Joaquín García Huerga, head of Global Strategy at BBVA Asset Management, during the presentation of “Market Vision 2020.”

In its latest Spain Outlook report, presented today by Jorge Sicilia, the Director of BBVA Research and Chief Economist for the BBVA Group, and Rafael Doménech, the Head of Economic Analysis, BBVA Research lowered the forecast for the national GDP growth to 1.9 percent (from 2.3 percent three months ago) and to 1.6 percent for 2020 (from the previous forecast of 1.9 percent). The decrease is explained by a review of economic data carried out by Spain’s national statistics body, the INE, due to the negative trend in some components of demand and the deteriorating international context. Under this scenario, around 750,000 jobs would be created over the two-year period and the unemployment rate would average 13.3 percent next year.