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Economy

Economy

BBVA Research, the research services arm of BBVA, has released its most recent edition of the “Spain Economic Outlook” where it forecasts a slight slowdown in growth. The report was presented today by BBVA Research Director and BBVA Group Chief Economist, Jorge Sicilia, and Rafael Doménech, Head of Economic Analysis at BBVA Research. The forecast lowers first quarter expectations to 2.2 percent in 2019 and 1.9 percent in 2020 (from 2.4 percent and 2 percent, respectively). Even so, the report signals that an improvement in economic activity could be underpinned by the global economy’s gradual recovery, an increasingly expansionary stance on monetary policy, continued low oil prices, and the positive conclusion to uncertainty stemming from different sources. Consequences of such a scenario would see a salary increase exceeding the inflation rate, an up to 12 percent reduction in unemployment in 2020, and the creation of close to 630,000 jobs over the next two years.

76 percent of Spanish enterprise businesses and 68 percent of SMEs will increase their investment in Latin America in 2019. Spanish investors see the best prospects in Colombia, Brazil, and Mexico, according to the latest report ‘Spanish Investment Landscape in Latin America‘, which was prepared by IE University, in collaboration with Llorente & Cuenca and Iberia, and presented at Casa de América in Madrid.

BBVA Research maintains its forecasts of 2.4% growth in Spain in 2019 and 2% in 2020, according to the latest report, Spain Economic Outlook. The report was presented today by BBVA Research Director and BBVA Group Chief Economist  Jorge Sicilia, and Rafael Doménech, the Head of Economic Analysis at BBVA Research. BBVA Research indicates that the recovery will continue, although the trend toward moderated growth is expected to consolidate over the coming quarters. Should this forecast be confirmed, the economy could add around 800,000 jobs over the next two years. This would represent a decrease in the job creation rate, but lower unemployment to 12.6% in 2020.

The slowdown taking place in some economies, protectionism, uncertainty over economic policy, an abrupt adjustment in China and rising debt are some of the issues that threaten to provoke another global economic crisis, one that would impact some regions more than others. “The general perception is that we are now past the peak in the cycle of growth of recent years,” says Rafael Doménech, the Head of Economic Analysis at BBVA Research.