The BBVA Research team has published its Economic Outlook for first quarter 2020, offering a look at a number of timely events and their anticipated economic impact.

“Work in the Age of Data” is the 12th book in the collection published by BBVA to disseminate and discuss fundamental issues of our time. This series is part of the bank’s OpenMind project — a digital community that aims to generate and disseminate knowledge in an open and free manner.

The book, which addresses the effects of the digital revolution on the labor market, can be downloaded for free in Spanish and English in different electronic formats.

Nonfinancial debt, specifically the relatively high ratio of business leverage, is drawing attention from economists working in policy and finance spheres, according to a recent publication by BBVA Senior Economist Filip Blazheski.

BBVA Research published its January auto sales chartbook, noting vehicle sales were 16.9 million in 2019, down 1.7% from 2018. While the sales results are still solid, 2019 sales were the lowest since 2014.

Recurring revenues (net interest income and net fees and commissions) continue growing robustly, reaching a record high in 2019. According to BBVA Group executive chairman Carlos Torres Vila, the bank obtained outstanding results despite a macroeconomic environment that was more complex than expected. “Looking toward the future, at BBVA, our goal will be to dig deeper into our strategy, integrating the interests of customers, employees, shareholders and society as a whole, balancing economic, social and environmental perspectives in everything we do,” he indicated.

Türkiye Garanti Bankası A.Ş. today announced its fourth quarter earnings. In 2019, the bank’s net income was TL 6.241.390 billion, with total assets at TL 428.554.148 billion. The bank’s contribution to the economy through performing cash and non-cash loans reached TL 321.964.117 billion.

According to the publication released this week from BBVA Research, U.S. Macroeconomic Pulse for January 2020, the current baseline assumes growth of 1.8% in 2020, with a potential upside emerging.  The paper further notes that model-based recession projections suggest probability around 30% over the next 24-months.

BBVA Chief U.S. Economist Nathaniel Karp, a member of the American Bankers Association (ABA) Economic Advisory Committee, joined the group’s other 14 economists in providing a detailed forecast for the coming year.

The region’s economy grew by 0.6% in 2019, one tenth less than in 2018 (1.6%), and below the forecasts at start of the year, which put growth at 2.1%. Improvement of the global context, supported by the agreement between the US and China, the trend toward expansive monetary policy, and reduced financial volatility will all help to stabilize the economy.

In its latest Spain Economic Outlook report – presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Director of BBVA Research and Chief Economist of BBVA Group, and Rafael Doménech, Head of Economic Analysis – BBVA’s research unit upheld the scenario it forecasted three months ago, which envisages a slowdown in Spain’s domestic GDP growth rate to 1.6% in 2020 from the 1.9% rate measured at 2019 year end. For 2021, a slightly more favorable international environment could result in a slight uptick in growth, with rates reverting to the 1.9% range. According to BBVA Research, this scenario would drive the creation of 600,000 jobs over the 2020-2021 timeframe, driving the unemployment rate down to around 12.5 percent, in average, in 2021.

Garanti BBVA and the Export-Import Bank of China have agreed to a $300 million, three-year loan to be used by Turkish companies to finance imports from China. A partner and trusted advisor to its clients engaging in international trade, BBVA’s Turkish unit forges international agreements in order to be able to offer customized financing solutions to this commercial segment. The agreement with China’s Exim Bank demonstrates the strength of Garanti BBVA’s long-lasting relationships with Chinese banks.