Close panel

Close panel

Close panel

Close panel

Economic analysis 25 Jan 2021

BBVA Research publishes its first quarter U.S. Economic Outlook

The BBVA Research team has published its Economic Outlook for first quarter 2021, noting that a post-holiday surge in COVID-19 cases and a vaccine rollout that is falling short of expectations have confirmed the need for further stimulus.

The report, published by the BBVA Research team headed by BBVA Chief Economist Nathaniel Karp, continues to highlight the ongoing economic impact of the pandemic, as well as the recent election. According to its authors, the mining and leisure & hospitality industries continue to struggle harder to recover compared to other industries. While the transportation industry remains acutely impacted, higher oil prices are supporting the oil and gas industry.

Residential real estate has been supported by low interest rates and low supply according to the report, but commercial real estate trends continue to be exacerbated by the pandemic. Consumer consumption is also losing steam due to COVID-19.

The greatest source of potential economic shocks over the next 12-18 months remains political uncertainty and corporate defaults, generating both short- and long-term uncertainties. The political turmoil also adds to upward pressures on long-term rates, according to the report.

The report further notes that labor force participation and unemployment rates continue to be negatively impacted, with Black and Hispanic Americans disproportionately impacted. Women in the workforce also remain hard-hit by the impact of the pandemic, according to the economic outlook.

The BBVA Research publication further delves into the new fiscal stimulus package proposed by the Biden Administration, the economic impact of additional components of its agenda, and inflation.

Read the full report here.

Other interesting stories