BBVA expects to grow its business and revenues in all its markets between 2025 and 2028
As part of the strategic plan unveiled earlier this year and following the release of second-quarter earnings, BBVA announced its financial goals for 2025-2028 for the Group and key business areas. All units are poised for sustainable growth while generating capital and maintaining rigorous cost and risk control, which will translate into improved profitability across business units.
In Spain, economic growth is expected to slow slightly in the coming years, although it will remain robust, which should sustain momentum in customer activity and credit demand. BBVA estimates that loans in the Spanish market will grow at a compound annual rate of around 5 percent until 2028, with growth being concentrated in segments with higher risk-adjusted profitability, particularly corporate and consumer lending. Increased lending activity will support the expansion of net interest income.
In addition, in line with the strategic plan, fee-generating businesses such as asset management and insurance are expected to contribute more, which will translate into low to mid single-digit growth in total revenues in Spain¹. In terms of costs, strict discipline and productivity improvements driven by artificial intelligence will enable the efficiency ratio to remain at acceptable levels, between 30 percent and 33 percent, in 2028. The bank also expects to maintain an average cost of risk of approximately 30 basis points in Spain. Overall, return on risk-weighted assets (RoRWA) would be around 4 percent by 2028.
In Mexico, annual economic growth is expected to recover, but remain below 2 percent through 2028. Against this backdrop, BBVA expects its franchise in the country to maintain high single-digit annual growth in lending volume, thanks to the potential offered by banking penetration, led by consumer and corporate portfolios. As in Spain, this increase in activity will be key to the growth of net interest income.
All of the above, together with the improved performance of businesses with low capital consumption, particularly insurance, will drive high single-digit annual revenue growth in constant euros¹. Operational excellence remains a priority, with efficiency at around 30 percent in 2028, reflecting rigorous cost control. Likewise, an average cost of risk of 330 basis points will support a solid RoRWA of approximately 6.5 percent by 2028.
In Türkiye, the outlook points to a gradual normalization and recovery of the economy, marked by a gradual decline in inflation and interest rates. As a result, BBVA expects a strengthening of net interest income, driven by activity growth above inflation and widening spreads, thanks to lower deposit costs. All this will translate into revenue growth of between 16 percent and 20 percent in current euros through 2028¹. Revenue expansion, together with lower inflation, will improve the efficiency ratio to between 30 percent and 33 percent in 2028. This, coupled with an average cost of risk of around 200 basis points, will lead to a significant improvement in profitability, with RoRWA expected to exceed 3.5 percent in 2028. From that year onwards, Türkiye is also expected to exit hyperinflation accounting.
In South America, the operating environment is favorable, with revenues growing at a high single digit in current euros¹, due to solid growth in activity and Argentina's exit from hyperinflation accounting in 2028. In a context of lower inflation, the efficiency ratio will improve to below 40 percent in 2028. Added to this is an average cost of risk of around 230 basis points between 2025 and 2028, which will drive RoRWA to close to 3 percent in 2028. In summary, BBVA expects profitability to increase in the region, especially in Argentina, as macroeconomic conditions normalize.
BBVA also has a positive outlook for the Rest of Businesses area, which includes CIB business in the US, Europe, and Asia, as well as digital banks in Europe (Italy and Germany). This area will benefit from the strong performance of CIB operations, which is one of the key priorities in BBVA's new strategic plan, with activity growth of between 16 percent and 20 percent¹ and revenue growth of close to 20 percent through 2028¹, making it a significant growth driver for the Group. Efficiency will improve, with a ratio below 50 percent by 2028 in constant euros, while the cost of risk will remain low, at around 20 basis points on average between 2025 and 2028. All of this supports expectations of higher profitability, with a RoRWA of over 2 percent at the end of the period.
The sum of these Group objectives translates into an average ROTE of around 22 percent for 2025-2028 and an efficiency ratio of close to 35 percent in 2028 (in current euros). In addition, BBVA expects to achieve cumulative attributable profit of approximately €48 billion over four years.
New strategic priorities
The BBVA Strategic Plan 2025-2025, which sets out these objectives, is based on six new strategic priorities. These include adopting a new customer perspective that will have a deeper and more positive impact on their lives, as well as a total commitment to long-term growth and value creation, which will focus on continuing to drive sustainability, growing in all business segments, and promoting a mindset of value creation and capital. Priorities also include maximizing the potential of artificial intelligence and innovation through the use of data and cutting-edge technology. All this will be made possible by an empathetic and winning team that seeks to create value for all stakeholders.