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Economic forecasting 12 May 2021

Garanti BBVA, awarded for its macroeconomic forecasts for Turkey

garanti-BBVA-Banca-turca

Consensus Economics, one of the world´s most recognized analysis firms, has awarded Garanti BBVA the Forecast Accuracy Award for work by its economic analysis department.

Garanti BBVA has become the the first bank in Turkey thanks to the accuracy of its economic forecasts (growth and inflation) for the Turkish economy in 2020.

“Garanti BBVA’s economic analysis unit provides reliable, coherent and data-based macroeconomic forecasts, even in difficult conditions. Despite the uncertainty from the pandemic and rising volatility in 2020, our economic analysis team forecasted Turkey’s economic data with the lowest possible percentage of error,” said Garanti BBVA’s Director General, Recep Baştuğ.

He also expressed how happy he was to have won the award, and the pride he felt for being the first bank in Turkey to receive it. Bastug congratulated the team for their pioneering role in the macrodata field, as well as for their increasing technical contributions. “Garanti BBVA offers its macroeconomic analysis and plans to both the general public and to economists, analysts and individual and institutional investors. The team is aware of the importance of their market studies and short, medium and long-term forecasts, and will continue providing its experts’ forecasts and global perspective,” he added.

London-based Consensus Economics studied the responses to monthly surveys on 2020 GDP forecasts and consumer prices published between January 2019 and December 2020. In its evaluation, it used mean absolute error analysis to compare these forecasts with the actual data outturns. The economic survey organization conducts monthly surveys in 115 countries, with forecasts from more than 700 economists on some 2,000 macroeconomic indicators.

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