Carlos Torres Vila: “The country’s medium-term outlook is favourable, driven by Plan Mexico”

Carlos Torres Vila noted that the global economy continues to show resilience, supported by its capacity to adapt, despite the international context marked by geopolitical uncertainty, trade tensions and shifts in the global economic order. BBVA’s Chair explained that the Group’s current projections point to over three percent growth for the coming years, but the main multilateral institutions are lowering their estimates. Nevertheless, he underscored that “even in complex environments, the global economy – and Mexico in particular – continues to create opportunities.”

In this context, he explained that Plan Mexico is aimed at strengthening the domestic market, raising wages and promoting more sustainable and inclusive growth. Its geographic proximity to and integration with the U.S., its industrial capabilities, macroeconomic stability and talent provide the country with significant advantages. The country has consolidated its role as a strategic partner of the U.S. and currently accounts for a substantial portion of its imports at a time when North American companies are looking for closer, more reliable suppliers that are better integrated into their production chains.

Complementing these factors is another advantage: over 80 percent of imports from Mexico reach the U.S. market without tariffs. There is also a very significant cost advantage, with highly competitive labor costs compared with other economies. “All of this puts Mexico in a privileged position to harness the opportunities stemming from nearshoring and the restructuring of global value chains,” he remarked.

The importance of financing for the Mexican economy

Carlos Torres Vila noted that potential alone is not sufficient. For it to materialize, investment is needed in infrastructure, innovation and technology. And investment requires financing. In this regard, banks play a fundamental role, he indicated. “At BBVA, we channel savings into productive investment. We transform the savings of households, businesses and institutions into credit for those who want to purchase a home, expand a factory, digitize a business, invest in sustainability or open new markets.”

BBVA’s Chair recalled that the Group has a 100-billion-peso investment plan underway in Mexico for the 2025–2030 period.

Torres Vila underscored that it is therefore important for BBVA to continue growing and reaching more people. In 2025, the BBVA Group added 11.5 million new customers and increased lending by 16.2 percent in constant euros. The Group also posted a record attributable profit of €10.51 billion for the year, and holds leading positions in Europe in profitability, with an ROTE of 19.3 percent, and in efficiency, which stood at 39 percent at the end of 2025. “What sets BBVA apart most is our ability to combine two dimensions, leading in both: growth and profitability,” he said. “These figures reflect the strength of our business model: a diversified, profitable, efficient model with significant growth potential. These record-breaking results cannot be attributed to a single factor. They reflect our excellent performance in all business areas, with a highly notable contribution from Mexico, which remains one of our primary drivers, and very positive performance in the other geographies.”

BBVA’s Chair recalled that the Group is making steady progress toward its financial targets for the 2025–2028 period. The bank aims to reach a cumulative attributable profit of around €48 billion between 2025 and 2028, maintain an average ROTE near 22 percent, keep efficiency at around 35 percent and achieve a compound annual growth rate of approximately 15 percent in tangible net assets plus dividends. “These are ambitious targets. But they are built on a very solid foundation: our current position, our leading franchises, our technological capabilities and the clarity of our strategy.”

In this regard, Torres Vila indicated that the strategic priorities reinforce the Group’s leading position. He referred to its radical client perspective, sustainability as a driver of growth and a lever to differentiate BBVA, leadership in the corporate segment, value creation in every decision, innovation through artificial intelligence (AI), and the team, “because no transformation is possible without people with talent, commitment and the ability to adapt.”

AI’s potential

Carlos Torres Vila stressed that BBVA has always harnessed innovation as a key lever to differentiate from its peers. It demonstrated this through digitization over the past decade, and the Group is committed to doing so again through AI. “At BBVA, we will lead banking in the era of artificial intelligence, just as we led the digital transformation. And we have a clear roadmap to achieve this,” he said.

This roadmap is structured around eight major initiatives – from Blue, the personal advisor for each customer, and AI for bankers, to assistants for risk, processes and software development – incorporating intelligence throughout the entire organization.

“Beyond specific projects and use cases, our vision is that, to structurally capture the abundance of the AI era, organizations must industrialize the creation and management of AI agents at scale, which is what we are doing at BBVA. This will not only transform how solutions are created, but will also reshape management and governance models,” he added.

The Chair concluded his remarks by stating that Mexico has the conditions to attract investment, strengthen its productive fabric, further integrate into global value chains and enhance its growth potential: “BBVA has the scale, technology, talent and commitment to help turn that potential into reality.”

Eduardo Osuna: Mexico can unlock its growth potential by tackling its challenges

Speaking at the same event, BBVA Mexico’s 2026 National Meeting of Regional Advisors (RNCR), Eduardo Osuna Osuna, Vice Chair and CEO of BBVA Mexico, said that although 2026 began with slow growth, expectations remain for a favourable trajectory. Key factors include negotiations with the United States, the implementation of the Infrastructure Plan and the establishment of clear rules that provide certainty to investors.

In his presentation, Osuna noted that between 2021 and 2025, 76 percent of total private investment in the country was domestic. He also stressed the need to strengthen investment as a share of GDP, increasing it from an average of 23 percent in previous years to more than 25 percent, with Plan Mexico as the main route to achieving this.

According to Osuna, the roadmap to position Mexico among the world’s ten largest economies by 2050 is already in place. He highlighted the Federal Government’s Infrastructure Investment Plan for Development with Well-being as the main instrument, noting that its impact will depend on execution capacity. If properly implemented, the plan could add up to 0.9 percent to GDP.

As a second factor, he referred to BBVA Mexico’s base scenario of maintaining a strong trade relationship with the United States to drive investment. He stressed that Mexico ranks among the top five suppliers in the 27 sectors the U.S. imports from and is the number-one supplier in 44 percent of them. He also noted that 81 percent of imports entering the United States do so tariff-free. In this scenario, this would add 0.3 percent to GDP.

Osuna pointed to digitalization as a third key pillar of public policy, noting that the government has sent clear signals that it is a priority, particularly in streamlining procedures for company creation and investment approvals. However, the greatest impact lies in policies aimed at reducing the use of cash, highlighting three main actions: distributing social programmes without cash, promoting digital payments across all levels of government, and shifting mass-service payments to digital channels. This pillar is expected to add a further 0.3 percent to GDP.

The fourth pillar focuses on strengthening the MSME segment and addressing informality, one of the main constraints on productivity and economic growth. Mexico has 5.2 million companies, of which 99.8 percent are MSMEs; however, 67 percent operate informally, only 31 percent are banked and just 7 percent have access to credit. This situation is also reflected in the labour market, where 55 percent of workers are informal, with significantly lower productivity: 30 million informal workers generate just 25 percent of GDP, compared to 27 million formal workers who account for 75 percent. Addressing this requires progress in digitalization, financial inclusion, access to credit and formalisation, supported by three key levers: tax incentives, payment simplification and reduced social contributions for micro-taxpayers. Together, these measures could add up to a further 0.3 percent to GDP.

In this context, the banking sector, in coordination with the Federal Government and the Mexican Banking Association (ABM), is promoting a plan to strengthen this segment by extending credit to more than 21,000 companies, supported by 120 billion pesos in guarantees through Nacional Financiera and Bancomext by 2030. As of March 30, 6 billion pesos have been mobilised and 1,400 MSMEs have benefited.

He also noted that a fifth pillar is security, both in its physical and legal dimensions. In this regard, he acknowledged the progress made by the Federal Government in tackling insecurity, highlighting the importance of maintaining and consolidating this trend, as sustained improvements in security could translate into an increase in GDP of up to 0.5 percent.

Osuna emphasised that, going forward, it will be essential to leverage judicial reform to strengthen the rule of law and provide greater legal certainty. He stressed that effective implementation in the coming years will allow a shift from criticism to an approach focused on measurement, process improvement and investment in technology within the justice system.

During his presentation, the executive also acknowledged the initiative of the Ministry of Finance (SHCP) regarding the Agreement to Promote Productive Investment and Tax Compliance, aimed at strengthening legal certainty, improving administrative efficiency and fostering investment.

The Vice President and CEO of BBVA Mexico noted that the bank continues to position itself as the largest fintech in the country, serving 37 percent of Mexicans over the age of 19, with a total of 27 million digital customers, of whom 24 million operate under a zero-fee model through the app. He also noted that the bank is leveraging the use of AI to scale customer service. As of the end of February 2026, 12 million people have a loan with the bank, representing 35 percent of the population.

Across all sectors, BBVA has provided financing as of the end of the first quarter of the year, with 953 billion pesos to households, 162 billion pesos to MSMEs, 735 billion pesos to companies and 250 billion pesos to the public sector.

Osuna explained that the financial institution continues to pursue its 2025–2030 investment plan with a focus on digitalization. In 2025, it invested 13.96 billion pesos; for this year, it expects to mobilise more than 14.96 billion pesos, 7 percent more than last year. Investment for 2025–2026 is allocated as follows: 56 percent to digitalization and innovation, 36 percent to infrastructure projects and 8 percent to social initiatives of the BBVA Mexico Foundation and financial education programmes. The level of investment announced in 2025 is 1.6 times that of the 2019–2024 period.

Osuna concluded by noting that Mexico has an opportunity to scale up its growth through further investment, with the public and private sectors working together and championing digitalization and formalisation to boost the economy. To turn this potential into results, it will be essential to focus on execution capability, as well as ensuring legal certainty and clear rules for investors.