Luisa Gómez Bravo Highlights the Strength of BBVA’s Business Model to Address Episodes of Uncertainty

BBVA’s CFO explained that the war of the U.S. and Israel against Iran has introduced a new element of uncertainty for the global economy. At this stage, she said, it is too early to determine precisely the impact of this crisis, as much will depend on the duration of the conflict and the evolution of energy prices, particularly oil and gas. BBVA’s base scenario assumes a short-lived conflict, with a limited impact on the markets where BBVA operates. In this regard, she added that Turkey is the market that could be most affected. However, even if the conflict were to be prolonged, in her view, situations like this once again highlight the key strengths of BBVA’s business model, with leading franchises and geographic diversification in economies with low private sector indebtedness, enabling the bank to navigate complex environments with greater resilience. In addition, she highlighted BBVA’s strategy, based on innovation, as a competitive advantage in times of uncertainty.

Luisa Gómez Bravo emphasized the positive outlook for Mexico from a macroeconomic perspective. In this regard, she noted that conditions are improving: “In fact, Mexico is the only market where we have revised our growth estimates upwards.” Specifically, BBVA estimates GDP growth of 1.8% in 2026 and 2% in 2027, supported by a stronger private sector, driven by resilient consumption and a recovery in investment in the country, as well as through ‘Plan México’. She also expressed optimism regarding the ongoing negotiation of the trade agreement with the U.S. and Canada, and recalled the country’s potential in terms of banking penetration, with a private credit-to-GDP ratio below 35%.

The expected growth of the bank’s net interest income for 2026 is mid- to high-single digit in Mexico, driven by business growth, with loan growth at a high-single digit pace. In an environment where customer spreads will continue to decline during the first half of the year, the ALCO portfolio (the management of the fixed income portfolio on the balance sheet) will continue to support the evolution of net interest income.

The CFO also addressed the competitive landscape in the country, which is highly intense and dynamic due to the entry of neobanks and competition with other traditional, regional and local banks. “Today, we are the best fintech in Mexico, but with scale, a universal product offering and the ability to attract customer deposits at a low cost to finance growth efficiently,” she explained.

Regarding Spain, BBVA’s CFO stated that the objective is to continue growing the loan portfolio at a rate of around 5%. Gómez Bravo highlighted that the macroeconomic environment in Spain is favorable, with expected growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2027, supported by domestic demand, and interest rates stabilizing at around 2%. In addition, the structural backdrop for credit growth in Spain is very healthy, as the country has been deleveraging for more than 15 years and the private sector balance sheet offers ample room for sustained credit growth in the future. Specifically, she highlighted the focus on corporate lending—where the bank sees particular potential in the mid-sized company segment, thanks to segmentation, digitalization and faster and more efficient access to credit—and consumer lending.

Regarding Turkey, Luisa Gómez Bravo noted that the Government’s economic team has remained strongly committed to containing inflation. The bank’s base scenario assumes that disinflation will continue and that interest rates will gradually decline, supporting a progressive normalization of the economy. That said, recent geopolitical developments and rising energy prices have introduced some additional uncertainty. She also recalled that BBVA Garanti is outperforming its competitors in terms of profitability (ROE) thanks to very efficient management of customer spreads, particularly deposit costs.

On the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the institution, Luisa Gómez Bravo stated that it is a trend that will truly transform all sectors. In particular, in the banking sector, the change will be deep and rapid, making it important to stay at the forefront and be a pioneer, as BBVA already was with digital banking. The BBVA Group sees AI as a major opportunity and has therefore launched an ambitious global plan to transform the bank with three main objectives: improving how customers are served, with more personalized solutions; empowering employees by providing bankers with AI assistants to help them better meet customer needs; and enhancing productivity through the simplification and automation of internal processes, freeing up time for teams to focus on what truly creates value.

Regarding the Corporate & Investment Banking (CIB) business, BBVA’s CFO explained that the growth strategy is supported by the close relationship with the bank’s clients. Specifically, through two growth levers: cross-border business derived from clients’ international expansion (which already accounts for 40% of CIB revenues), and sustainable finance. The BBVA Group has set a target of mobilizing €700 billion in sustainable business by 2029, and CIB plays a fundamental role in achieving it.

Finally, Luisa Gómez Bravo referred to the €4 billion extraordinary share buyback program that the bank is executing, of which the first tranche has been successfully completed. The remainder of the program, she announced, will continue to be executed once the terms are approved by the relevant governing bodies. “Once this €4 billion program is completed, we will continue returning any excess capital above our 12% CET1 target progressively,” she stressed. In her view, it is not only about distributing the current excess capital, but also about the capacity to continue generating capital in the future.