Critical minerals: the link shaping future competitiveness
The energy transition is often associated with technologies such as batteries, electric vehicles and renewable energy. However, behind all of them lies a less visible factor that is beginning to shape industrial competitiveness: access to critical minerals.
The disruptions experienced in 2025 in sectors such as the automotive industry in Europe and the United States, linked to shortages of permanent magnets and heavy rare earth elements, have highlighted the extent to which certain raw materials have become an economic security and competitiveness issue. Vulnerability no longer lies solely in extraction, but also in processing and refining, which today represent the main bottleneck in the value chain.
Although mining is more geographically diversified, the refining and processing of critical minerals remain highly concentrated. According to the International Energy Agency, China dominates the processing of 19 of the 20 strategic minerals, with particularly high shares in graphite and rare earth elements. The consequence is clear: the global supply chain remains exposed to geopolitical tensions, export restrictions and sudden fluctuations in prices and availability.
“This is a paradigm shift that directly affects sectors such as automotive, power grids, renewables, defence, electronics and semiconductors,” says Tomás García Moreno, Managing Director, Sustainability & Low Carbon Advisory, BBVA CIB. “Material origin, supply chain resilience, regulatory exposure and security of supply have become part of corporate discussions.”
Europe faces a structural decision
For Europe, this issue is particularly significant: how to build a stronger position within a highly concentrated global supply system.
The answer does not lie in replicating the entire Asian value chain, but in developing selective capabilities in those areas where Europe can create a competitive advantage: extraction, refining, recycling, traceability and advanced processing technologies.
Europe has already set out an ambitious agenda. The challenge now is to turn it into real industrial capacity: moving from regulatory planning to the financing, construction and commercial operation of strategic projects.
Europe has already set out an ambitious agenda. The challenge now is to turn it into real industrial capacity
Financing the new value chain
Developing a mine, refinery or recycling facility requires years of planning, complex permitting processes, supply agreements and robust financing structures. Turning strategy into industrial capacity means solving a complex equation involving financing, risk and coordination among multiple stakeholders. This is precisely where investment banking has an essential role to play.
Critical minerals require more than capital; they require structuring. They need models that allocate risk efficiently, align the interests of project sponsors, industrial customers, public authorities and investors, and make projects bankable despite their capital-intensive and long-term nature.
In this area, BBVA CIB supports corporate clients and investors through solutions that combine financing, strategic advisory and access to capital. Offtake agreements, industrial partnerships, export credit agency-backed financing and M&A transactions are among the structures gaining prominence.
An increasingly strategic market
Export controls on certain materials and components linked to the battery value chain have highlighted how these resources can become instruments of industrial policy. In response, supplier diversification and the development of international alliances are accelerating. The discussion is no longer focused solely on spot prices, but also on security, traceability and continuity of supply.
“The key question is no longer simply who produces the most minerals, but who can finance the projects and ensure their availability under competitive and sustainable conditions,” says Tomás García Moreno, Managing Director, Sustainability & Low Carbon Advisory, BBVA CIB.
In this context, the energy transition will depend not only on technology, but also on the ability to develop the infrastructure, supply chains and financing mechanisms needed to make it possible. Critical minerals are no longer a sector-specific issue; they have become one of the factors that will shape economic competitiveness over the coming decades.