“COP30 will put the world’s ability to turn promises into results to the test. The conference aims to move from climate ambition to effective implementation and measurable commitments,” according to BBVA Research. “Although climate research exists, it is not sufficient and must accelerate at COP30,” a recent report by the research service concluded.
The study ‘COP30: from Ambitious Promises to Effective Commitments’ warns that the absence of the U.S. from the outset and the lack of trust between the global North and South will set the tone for the negotiations. The success of the summit will be measured by tangible progress in the new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the national emission-reduction commitments, multilateral financing, credible mechanisms for forest conservation and climate adaptation, and the consolidation of international carbon markets.
The event, held in Belém do Pará, Brazil from November 10 – 21, carries significant symbolic and political weight. It marks the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement, which transformed climate diplomacy, and comes at a time of “profound geopolitical fractures, economic headwinds and the first signs that the planet has temporarily surpassed the 1.5°C threshold,” according to the BBVA Research report.
Recently, the number of countries that have presented Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) has increased substantially to 113, representing 70 percent of global emissions. If fully implemented, emissions would decrease by 12 percent in 2035 compared to 2019, well below the 60 percent reduction required to keep global warming close to the 1.5°C increase, within the Paris Agreement limit.
The ‘implementation COP’
The Brazilian government, which is hosting the summit, has defined this year’s COP not as a summit to negotiate new commitments, but to comply with those already made: implementation urgency over negotiation, reflecting frustration after 30 years of limited measurable results.
Key expected outcomes
The report identifies the areas where concrete progress could be made:
- Mitigation and ambition: most countries will announce new NDCs for 2035, although many still do not adhere to the 1.5 °C target.
- Adaptation and resilience: adoption of the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) indicator framework, with 80 to 100 metrics, is expected, and considered a key technical milestone.
- Climate finance: reaffirmation of the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), with the commitment to mobilize at least $300 billion per year in public funding by 2035, although without binding mechanisms.
- Brazil initiatives: formal launch of the Tropical Forest Fund (TFFF), which aims to provide up to $125 billion to compensate tropical countries for conserving their forests.
- Carbon markets: progress implementing Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, although markets will not yet be fully operational.
Ambition and realism
The analysis expects COP30 to conclude with a package of results that combine ambition and realism: technical progress in adaptation, reaffirmation of climate finance and limited steps in carbon markets.
According to BBVA Research, although it is likely that the commitments made at COP30 will continue to have implementation gaps and be more political than binding and measurable, Brazil’s emphasis on transforming “words into action” could produce more tangible results and restore some faith in the ability of multilateralism to function amid division.