COP30 in Brazil: thoughts on the progress made at the latest climate summit

Expectations were high ahead of the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which also marked the tenth anniversary of the signing of the Paris Agreement, although the prevailing geopolitical context made things exceedingly difficult. The host country had drawn up an ambitious agenda to make this the summit of the mutirão, a Guaraní-origin term that refers to collective effort for mutual benefit (in this case, global action to curb climate change).

However, the results were simply not ambitious enough. The final agreement once again lacks any reference to the need to progressively phase out fossil fuels; something that has only been achieved so far at COP28. Furthermore, the 122 new national climate plans (known as nationally determined contributions, or NDCs for short) presented during COP30 — representing 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions — fall short of the mark in scaling up climate change mitigation efforts and preventing global warming beyond 2°C.

Main progress at COP30: the Belém package

Although the participating countries failed to agree on a shared roadmap to bring about the gradual phase-out of coal, oil and gas, COP30 in Brazil still managed to achieve significant progress compared with previous summits. These are the most notable agreements reached as part of the so-called Belém package:

• Large-scale financing: countries will continue working toward providing developing countries with $1.3 trillion a year from 2035 onward to finance global climate action. Developed countries will contribute the most, and funds may come from governments and private entities alike. Even so, the experts are calling for more clarity on the instruments needed to achieve this goal: “The decisions were pushed into a two-year work program, prolonging uncertainty in an area that is crucial to mobilizing private capital at scale,” explains Antoni Ballabriga, Global Head of Sustainability Intelligence at BBVA.
• More funds for adaptation: the countries that signed the Belém package also pledged to double climate adaptation financing this year and to triple it by 2035, reaching a total of $300 billion. “COP30 has elevated adaptation to the status of unquestionable business importance, yet the lack of agreements on fossil fuels and climate finance is a worrying source of regulatory uncertainty,” says Maria Irusta Barasoain, Senior Vice President for Sustainable Regulation at BBVA: “We see decarbonization as a major engine of growth. We have more than doubled our sustainable mobilization target to €700 billion between 2025 and 2029.”
• New forward momentum for phasing out oil: While a commitment to phase out fossil fuels may have been conspicuously absent from the final declaration, that does not mean no progress was made. As it happens, more than 80 countries supported Brazil’s initiative to develop a roadmap for a just, orderly and equitable transition away from fossil fuels. Moreover, the host country has pledged to achieve further support and has said it will continue pushing the initiative in other global forums. In addition, Colombia and the Netherlands announced plans to organize a conference in 2026 devoted to the importance of phasing out fossil fuels.
• Regulatory progress: The Principles for Taxonomy Interoperability (also known as the ‘super taxonomy’) were presented at the summit. This regulatory initiative aims to create a ‘common language’ across sustainable finance taxonomies worldwide, thus helping to reduce market fragmentation. This regulatory alignment is essential for financial institutions to deploy sustainable capital globally without being hindered by conflicting definitions. The goal is not a single taxonomy, but rather a Common Ground Taxonomy.
• Launch of the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF): Designed to protect tropical forests in a stable, long-term manner, the TFFF marks a fundamental shift by establishing a sovereign finance model based on long-term performance. This creates compelling incentives for nations to implement and maintain robust regulatory reforms for land and forest protection. Its initial capitalization has risen to more than $6.6 billion and the facility has the backing of 53 countries.
• Creation of a Just Transition Mechanism: The aim here is to coordinate policies, technical support and international cooperation to ensure that decarbonization is ‘just and inclusive,’ albeit for now without a dedicated fund.

“Being resolute in addressing the transition away from fossil fuels is the only way to deal with the climate change we are already enduring in the form of torrential rains, heatwaves, and wildfires. Once again, we are walking away without having finished our homework, with our gaze now set on April 2026 in Türkiye. Hopefully it will be a turning point. The climate emergency is not waiting for anyone,” cautioned Mar Asunción Higueras, Head of the Climate and Energy Program at WWF Spain, during the event ‘COP30 Brazil: The Day After,’ organized by SUST4IN.

Multilateralism survives COP30

The Belém climate summit took place amid an exceptionally complex international geopolitical landscape, marked by the United States’ opposition to multilateralism and its exit from the Paris Agreement; by the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East that are straining cooperative relations among countries; by economic pressures and the high cost of the transition; and by growing public skepticism, caused largely by the lack of tangible results. Despite all this, COP30 showed that the spirit of multilateralism is still very much alive and that scientific knowledge continues to guide decision-making.

“The outcome of the Belém summit should not be viewed as a sign of the multilateral system’s impotence. In fact, thanks to the Paris Agreement, the world has gone from warming projections above 4°C to an estimated range today of between 2.3°C and 2.5°C, assuming the recently announced NDCs are fully implemented,” concludes Ballabriga. “What COP30 has shown once again is that global governance is not enough. Distributed, national and sector-level action is also essential, with leading companies and global financial institutions playing a role as catalysts of investment and active agents of change.”

For Julián Cubero, economist at BBVA Research, the mixed experience of COPs “in a fractured and uncertain geopolitical landscape” that is likely here to stay offers a key lesson: “It pays to be pragmatic and to cast off the (perhaps impossible?) ambition of achieving global consensus and multiple targets, and instead design roadmaps with concrete advances among countries, sectors, and companies that are genuinely committed.”

The next COP—the 31st, scheduled for late 2026—will take place in Türkiye, with Australia set to play a prominent role in facilitating negotiations. At this summit, nearly 200 countries will discuss how to accelerate climate action, strengthen financing for the most vulnerable countries, and push ahead with the energy transition and achieve a meaningful reduction in fossil fuel use in line with the Paris Agreement.