Miriam Garzón

Compulsory quarantine due to COVID-19 has led to increased use of digital channels, especially mobile banking services, as can be seen in the BBVA franchises in South America.

La economía mundial continuará con un crecimiento débil en 2019, que será más evidente en China y los países europeos. Esta situación refleja el aumento de las tensiones comerciales y la mayor incertidumbre que están golpeando de manera importante al comercio y la industria.

According to the United Nations, today, more than half of the world's population lives in cities, a situation that will continue to escalate in the future. This has led to an increase in environmental pollution, inequality and poverty in these cities, a situation that testifies to the need to focus on advancing in UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) no. 11: To make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable. In this task, BBVA also has a lot to say and to do.

Climate change is forcing countries and the private sector to gaze into the future from a different point of view, one in which technology opens new paths to contribute to the development of societies. This is the scenario based on which the UN has defined its Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) No. 9:  Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation. BBVA has committed to - and is already - contributing to the achievement of this goal.

A commitment to sustainable development is the best guarantee for a better future. All measures aimed at improving energy efficiency and increasing the use of renewable energy are welcome in this undertaking. This is precisely the objective of the United Nations seventh Sustainable Development Goal (SDG): to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all, an objective that BBVA is also actively supporting.

BBVA has a core purpose of bringing the age of opportunity to everyone. The first step toward fulfilling this purpose has to do with the bank’s contribution to attaining the first of the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): the end of poverty. The 17 SDGs are a universal call to action to end poverty, protect the planet and ensure that all people enjoy peace and prosperity. The UN has called on companies to unite their efforts and initiatives in this area, with a focus on public-private partnerships.

BBVA is developing an open innovation program in the region, known as fast track, which makes it possible to streamline and make more efficient the processes that the Group develops together with startups to implement new digital products and services for the benefit of customers.

The main indicators show the U.S. economy has performed well in the year so far, with a rise in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment and wages as well as higher exports.

BBVA Research has raised its growth forecasts for US growth and now sees GDP at 2.8% this year and the next due to the strength of the global economy and the Trump administration’s fiscal stimulus.

BBVA continued leading the way to innovation in Latin America during 2017, becoming the region’s digital bank par excellence. That distinction was confirmed by Global Finance magazine, which judged BBVA’s mobile banking app to be the best in Latin America. BBVA’s local franchises in the region have set the pace in the development of products and services which, just as in the case of mobile banking, aim to make their customers’ lives easier and deliver on the Group’s intent to bring the age of opportunity to everyone.

For Argentina, assuming the presidency of the G20 is a great challenge and commitment, but also a great opportunity. Indeed, after years during which the doors to international finance have remained closed to Argentina, the country is making significant strides to reclaim its spot as Latin America’s third-largest economy.

After two consecutive years of contraction, Latin America will be able to post positive growth figures in 2017, between 1.2% and 1.3%, according to projections by BBVA Research, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank .

BBVA Research economists say that despite U.S. GDP showing a healthy rebound in the third quarter, the die has been cast after two consecutive quarters of weak growth. They expect the GDP growth rate in 2016 to be 1.6 percent, the lowest in seven years.

BBVA now has 16 million digital customers, up 21% from the first half of last year, and 10.2 million mobile customers, up 45% year-on-year. The bank is also developing a wide range of products and services, including digitized traditional products like mortgages, insurance and loans, as well as native products like Wallet, Link and Wibe.

After enduring over 40 civil wars during the 19th century, the 20th century brought the rise of the guerilla warfare to Colombia. Today, in the midst of the 21st century, the country still does not know what it means to live in peace. But hope remains alive today more than ever, thanks to the strides made in the negotiation process that Juan Manuel Santos’ government is holding with the two only guerrillas that remain active in the country, and in Latin America at large: The FARC or Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia and the ELN or National Freedom Army. Signing a final deal with these two groups would mean the end of one of the world’s longest-running conflicts in the world.

Negotiations between Juan Manuel Santos’ government and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) began in 2012. Talks with the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) will start in May. It has been a long, complicated peace process. While a definitive peace agreement is still pending, the steps taken so far can be considered milestones in Colombia’s history.

Central banks in Latin America are finding it particularly difficult to meet their target of low and stable inflation, since many countries are facing at the same time problems of high inflation (fueled by the depreciation of the exchange rate) and low economic growth.

Brazil's economic recession may end up affecting all other Latin American countries, especially its closest neighbors: Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. The negative effects of this situation will be mostly felt on trade but they will also impact tourism, foreign direct investment (FDI), and fund flows, among others. However, according to BBVA Research, the general effect of Brazil's negative circumstances is not strong enough to bring a crisis situation to other countries in the region.

Brazil, the biggest economy in Latin America, is facing a political and economic crisis that is keeping the country in recession and will extend over 2016. We talked about the economic situation and outlook for the country with Enestor Dos Santos, economist at BBVA Research for Brazil, who explained that if the situation is to be normalized it is important to resolve the political situation first. This will reduce uncertainty, generate more stability and enable the right decisions to be made to allow the country to grow again. However, he clarifies that recovery from this economic recession will start gradually in 2017 and gather strength after the 2018 elections.

The commodities boom has reached its end, impacting strongly on Latin American economies. Fiscal balances have been affected by lower currency revenue, currencies have devalued significantly, with the subsequent fall in the value of exports, and the exchange rate effect has led to a rise in inflation.  It has also had a negative impact on GDP growth that could become more pronounced if prices fall further in 2016.

Economic recovery, balancing national budgets and controlling inflation are just some of the challenges facing Latin American countries in the coming year. After a less than dynamic 2015, it is hoped that 2016 will see a return to economic growth, though this is one objective which will not be easy to achieve.

2015 saw a number of key events in Latin America; but perhaps the most important occurred in the political arena with the change of government in Argentina, the National Assembly election results in Venezuela, and the progress made in the peace process in Colombia. These marked out a new direction for the countries in question and could have possible repercussions on the region's economy.