BBVA's research unit revises its Spanish GDP growth forecasts for 2023 downward from 3.3% to 1.8% but keeps its estimate for 2022 unchanged at 4.1%. This reflects the scarcity of some raw materials and rising commodity prices generally, with the consequent increase in production costs already feeding through to inflation. In addition, the financial burden on businesses and families is expected to become heavier as the European Central Bank (ECB) moves forward with the withdrawal of quantitative easing. These trends are analyzed and discussed in the latest ‘Spain Economic Outlook’ report, presented by Jorge Sicilia, Director of BBVA Research and BBVA's Chief Economist, Rafael Doménech, Head of Economic Analysis, and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist for Spain.
BBVA Research | Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest
BBVA Research | Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest
The Latin American Federation of Banks (Felaban) organized its 2nd regulatory meeting in Madrid. The employers' association, which gathers the main banking associations in the region, participated in a working meeting with BBVA executives where they analyzed the outlook for Latin America post-pandemic.
The report 'Impact of COVID-19 on Consumption in Real Time and High Frequency´ in Spain, published by BBVA Research, reflects a 28 percent increase in card purchases compared to June 2019 levels. Transactions grew by 19 percent y-o-y through face-to-face channels and 69 percent in non-face-to-face channels. The increase in mobility saw a boost in spending, especially in consumer sectors such as hospitality and leisure, and in those that involve travel, such as transport.
Consumption continued growing at strong rates in June, despite the correction of most of the base effect in year-on-year terms. Mobility-dependent sectors continued recovering unevenly on a per country basis, but rates remained particularly strong in the restaurant and catering industry. This are some of the key takeaways of 'The COVID-19 Impact on Consumption in Real Time and High Definition', a report published by BBVA Research.
Carlos Torres Vila today opened the 38th APIE Seminar in Santander together with Nadia Calviño, Second Vice-President of the Government and Minister of Economic Affairs and Digital Transformation. During his speech, the BBVA Chairman highlighted that, after a weak and uncertain start in 2021, the outlook for growth is now very positive. "We all expect a strong rebound in the economy in the second half of the year," he said. In his opinion, the economic recovery and the arrival of European funds put Spain in an excellent position to face the challenges of the productive model transformation. "We must take advantage of this new period of growth to transform our economy and that means preparing ourselves for a world that is undergoing radical change, preparing ourselves to face the challenges associated with that change, and to capitalize on the unparalleled opportunities that are opening up on the horizon," he stated.
According to 'Impact of COVID-19 on Consumption in Real Time and High Definition', a report by BBVA Research, May 2021 card spending was 19 percent higher than in May 2019 (+36 percent y-o-y, i.e. compared to May 2020). Spending in restaurants and leisure grew the most, driven by the lifting of state of alarm restrictions.
The end to mobility restrictions has begun to show in the hotel, restaurant, entertainment, and transport sectors. All of them displayed signs of recovery in May 2021, although at unequal rates depending on the country. This according to 'The COVID-19 Impact on Consumption in Real Time and High Definition,' the latest report published by BBVA Research.
BBVA Research through its Global Economic Research area and Clarity AI, presents the "Cash vs. card consumption patterns: a Machine Learning approach" study on the use of cards and cash in the country.
Consensus Economics, one of the world´s most recognized analysis firms, has awarded Garanti BBVA the Forecast Accuracy Award for work by its economic analysis department.
The BBVA Research team has published its Economic Outlook for first quarter 2021, noting that a post-holiday surge in COVID-19 cases and a vaccine rollout that is falling short of expectations have confirmed the need for further stimulus.
After two years of pandemic-related restrictions, the Davos Forum, hosted by the WEF (World Economic Forum) and to be held from May 22 to 26, 2022, has returned to an in-person meeting format. This edition is one of the most critical so far, due to the vast changes the world has seen since the event was last held and the severe tests that society now faces. With the pandemic in the background and the invasion of Ukraine in the foreground, the summit comes at a crucial geopolitical and economic moment, when the world faces urgent challenges in humanitarian emergencies, energy and security, while not losing sight of the long-term commitments to transform, feed and decarbonize the planet.
BBVA Research published its October auto sales chartbook, noting vehicle sales have experienced a v-shaped recovery, increasing 36 percent in the third quarter of 2020 from the previous quarter. However, sales are still 10 percent below levels observed in 3Q2019.
The BBVA Research team has published its Economic Outlook for fourth quarter 2020, anticipating that the pandemic and upcoming election could add noise to the short-term outlook even as medium-term prospects improve.
The BBVA Chairman kicked off MoneyFest, this year’s virtual edition of Money2020. In an interview with Spriha Srivastava, Executive Editor overseeing the London Newsroom of Business Insider, he shared his insights into the trends that the pandemic has accelerated, such as digitization and sustainability. Carlos Torres Vila considers that this crisis can be an “opportunity to reset our world.” In this sense, he noted that the “infusion of public funds must contribute to achieve a more digital, sustainable and inclusive society.”
BBVA Research published its July auto sales chartbook, noting vehicle sales exceeded expectations for the quarter, resulting in an upward revision to the economists’ annual forecast. However, sales were still 33.7 percent below levels observed in 2Q2019, the worst decline since 2Q09.
The BBVA Research team published its economic analysis of the drop in gross domestic product for second quarter 2020, noting it is the steepest decline in over-the-quarter growth since 1937, in the aftermath of the Great Depression.
Spain’s GDP could contract 11.5 percent in 2020 and grow seven percent in 2021, according to the latest ‘Spain Economic Outlook’ report, which was presented this Tuesday by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist at BBVA Group and Director of BBVA Research; Rafael Doménech, BBVA Research Head of Economic Analysis; and Miguel Cardoso, BBVA Research's Chief Economist for Spain. The contraction that is expected in 2020 represents a downgrade from the previous report’s forecast, which estimated an eight percent drop in GDP this year. The downward revision is mainly due to the fact that lockdown measures were in place longer than anticipated and these restrictions had a greater impact on demand, like in other European countries. Still, the reduction in number of COVID-19 infections and the easing of restrictions has led to a strong recovery. The ambitious policy announcements in Europe and a significant fiscal stimulus in Spain reinforces the expectation that this trend will continue. Even so, the risks continue to tilt to the downside in a climate of continued heightened uncertainty.
According to last week's data on credit and debit card spending, consumption has recovered in regions where pandemic restrictions have been lifted. This improvement is observed in the U.S., Turkey and Spain, and in recent days in Latin America. In Spain, increased spending has been seen in those regions that first moved into phase two of the country's reopening. BBVA Research points out that there was also an increase in ATM cash withdrawals.
The BBVA Research team has published its Economic Outlook for second quarter 2020, offering a look at how the U.S. economy might recover in a post-COVID world.
The BBVA Research team has published its U.S. Macroeconomic Pulse for April 2020, offering insight into the economic outlook as well as macro fundamentals.
BBVA Group executive chairman Carlos Torres Vila and BBVA CEO Onur Genç participated in a virtual Live@BBVA event with more than 65,000 connections from employees. They provided answers to questions about how BBVA is dealing with the coronavirus crisis and sent a message of hope. “Together we can ensure that the recovery is stronger,” the chairman said. “It is time to step up and make a difference,” and to do so, “ "it is essential that we all - authorities, companies and society a whole - act in a coordinated manner."
According to the publication released from BBVA Research, When will the U.S. economy recover from the infection?, the experience of countries that have transitioned beyond the worst phase of the pandemic suggest that the number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. could peak in the spring or early summer.
The spread of coronavirus to several countries has led to a very charged reaction in the markets. The World Health Organization’s declaration of a global COVID-19 pandemic led to a number of immediate actions from the central banks and, concretely, the European Central Bank (ECB), as well as governments and other authorities in Europe. In a note, BBVA Research indicates that “the adoption of these measures is positive.” However, it feels that the monetary policy measures should be accompanied by a coordinated fiscal response from the European Union, which has already begun to materialize in Europe with similar stimulus plans between different countries.
The BBVA Research team has published its Economic Outlook for first quarter 2020, offering a look at a number of timely events and their anticipated economic impact.
Over the past two years, market volatility has caused investors to think twice before investing in Turkish assets. In an interview for Bloomberg in Turkey, Emre Hatem, head of Corporate Loans and Project Finance Restructuring at Garanti BBVA, discusses the country’s economic outlook for 2020 following 2019’s slump in transactions.
BBVA today released its 2019 annual compensation report for its board members, the first that includes sustainability as a non-financial indicator in the variable compensation for the executive chairman. In 2020, the CEO will also have an indicator that will measure the bank’s strategic commitment to climate change and sustainable development. The 2019 compensation policy (applicable for 2019, 2020 and 2021) was already announced last year. It was approved with 94.8 percent of the votes at the Annual General Meeting in March last year.
Nonfinancial debt, specifically the relatively high ratio of business leverage, is drawing attention from economists working in policy and finance spheres, according to a recent publication by BBVA Senior Economist Filip Blazheski.
BBVA Research published its January auto sales chartbook, noting vehicle sales were 16.9 million in 2019, down 1.7% from 2018. While the sales results are still solid, 2019 sales were the lowest since 2014.
According to the publication released this week from BBVA Research, U.S. Macroeconomic Pulse for January 2020, the current baseline assumes growth of 1.8% in 2020, with a potential upside emerging. The paper further notes that model-based recession projections suggest probability around 30% over the next 24-months.
The region's economy grew by 0.6% in 2019, one tenth less than in 2018 (1.6%), and below the forecasts at start of the year, which put growth at 2.1%. Improvement of the global context, supported by the agreement between the US and China, the trend toward expansive monetary policy, and reduced financial volatility will all help to stabilize the economy.
The B20 - or “G20 for businesses” - is a forum of private international companies that provides recommendations to the G20 to address the most relevant challenges of the global economic and financial agenda. This year, Saudi Arabia will preside over the meeting. BBVA has played a very active role in the B20 since 2015, thanks to BBVA Executive Board Member José Manuel González-Páramo, who serves as Vice Chair of the Finance and Infrastructure Task Force.
According to BBVA Research’s latest Country Risk Quarterly Report, financial tensions have eased across all regions, markets, and asset classes with the exception of Latin America. Emerging Asia is the only region where all variables for the macroeconomic vulnerability radar analysis stand below their corresponding risk thresholds. Between 2018 and 2019 there were no significant changes to the degree of macroeconomic vulnerability across all developed economies, whereas within emerging regions, changes were concentrated in Latin America.
A European Commission (EC) expert group has called on regulators to respond to the changing nature of fintech to ensure customers can continue to see the rewards the sector brings.
BBVA Research released its U.S. Recession Risk Monitor, noting that the probability of a recession within the coming 12 months is at a one-year low, with the likelihood at 30 percent.
BBVA’s Executive Board Member, José Manuel González-Páramo, discussed the current status and outlook for the global economy at the 24th S'Agaró Economic Symposium. His main message was that: “The deceleration of the global economy seems to be stabilizing", with growth close to its potential. He therefore ruled out the “risk of recession”, which “is not the base scenario in the short-term.”