BBVA Executive Chairman Carlos Torres Vila has described the European recovery plan (Next Generation EU) as “a landmark opportunity for Spain.” He asserted that “if the aid is complemented by appropriate reforms, Spain could put an end to its elevated structural unemployment, which has hovered above 16 percent over the last four decades, while laying the foundations of an economy based on green and digital growth, a data-driven economy.”
BBVA Research published its July auto sales chartbook, noting vehicle sales exceeded expectations for the quarter, resulting in an upward revision to the economists’ annual forecast. However, sales were still 33.7 percent below levels observed in 2Q2019, the worst decline since 2Q09.
The BBVA Research team published its economic analysis of the drop in gross domestic product for second quarter 2020, noting it is the steepest decline in over-the-quarter growth since 1937, in the aftermath of the Great Depression.
The BBVA Research team published its insights into the economic impact of possible presidential election outcomes in 2020, noting that a divided government is unlikely to make significant policy changes, resulting in a continuation of the status quo in terms of growth.
Spain’s GDP could contract 11.5 percent in 2020 and grow seven percent in 2021, according to the latest ‘Spain Economic Outlook’ report, which was presented this Tuesday by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist at BBVA Group and Director of BBVA Research; Rafael Doménech, BBVA Research Head of Economic Analysis; and Miguel Cardoso, BBVA Research's Chief Economist for Spain. The contraction that is expected in 2020 represents a downgrade from the previous report’s forecast, which estimated an eight percent drop in GDP this year. The downward revision is mainly due to the fact that lockdown measures were in place longer than anticipated and these restrictions had a greater impact on demand, like in other European countries. Still, the reduction in number of COVID-19 infections and the easing of restrictions has led to a strong recovery. The ambitious policy announcements in Europe and a significant fiscal stimulus in Spain reinforces the expectation that this trend will continue. Even so, the risks continue to tilt to the downside in a climate of continued heightened uncertainty.
The BBVA Research team has published two reports: its U.S. Regional Outlook for July, highlighting key factors impacting regional economies, along with its economic analysis of the U.S. employment report. The COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact job growth and other economic indicators.
According to last week's data on credit and debit card spending, consumption has recovered in regions where pandemic restrictions have been lifted. This improvement is observed in the U.S., Turkey and Spain, and in recent days in Latin America. In Spain, increased spending has been seen in those regions that first moved into phase two of the country's reopening. BBVA Research points out that there was also an increase in ATM cash withdrawals.